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Modeler with aerosol All is wrong… Climate sensitivity CO2 Potential other than 0.4°C is overstated! – Is it good?


NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

Via P Gosselin above 26. November 2021

Die kalte Sonne reports on a new aerosol study of Liu et al.

The result is a blow to modelers who are highly sensitive to greenhouse climates.

IPCC scientists have a favorite wildcard they often use to explain serious model differences: aerosols. Mysterious cooling events of the past are often explained by Aerosol such as from large volcanic eruptions. They work to filter out sunlight.

According to IPCC climate models, the average global temperature should have increased by 1.5°C since 1850 due to higher CO2 concentrations. But the best estimates suggest it’s only 1.1°C up. So what about the 0.4°C short?

Naturally, the 0.4°C shortfall in warming since 1850 is explained by higher 20th-century aerosol concentrations in the atmosphere – due to the burning of fossil fuels. Man-made air pollution throughout the late 19th and 20th centuries is believed to have caused the earth to fade, and thus this explains less than 0.4°C of warming.

Surprisingly: global aerosol emissions have not changed over the past 250 years

But now the result is one The new study appears in the journal Science Advances by Liu et al tells us that coercion by aerosols has had to be overestimated by climate modelers. IPCC modelers assert that aerosol concentrations were higher in the 20th century than in pre-industrial times, and this is what keeps the climate from warming to 1.5°C.

However, according to scientists led by Liu, aerosols in the atmosphere in pre-industrial times were as high as in recent times. In fact, they’ve been more or less constant over the past 250 years. No change means it can’t have brake boosters that raise the temperature:

Image: Science Advances, Liu et al.

It’s a real embarrassment to IPCC modelers. It means that the sensitivity to the CO2 climate has been overestimated.

The aerosol concentration changes very little

The graph above is what they found from records of 14 Antarctic ice cores and 1 central Andean ice core. These tell us that “historic fire activity in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) has exceeded current levels”. Wildfires back then were much worse, and therefore, more aerosol emissions than the modelers thought!

“The results are truly surprising”, reports Die kalte Sonne.

Meaning: CO2 climate sensitivity is overstated in models

The researchers found that instead of aerosols increasing in the 20th century, they are in fact likely to decrease by 30% in the 20th century! This means that aerosols cannot prevent 0.4°C warming, which means that the climate sensitivity of man-made greenhouse gases must be adjusted accordingly.

The models all have the wrong sprayer.

Confirmed by previous research

The new findings are reinforced by previous findings in a Research in 2018 by Hamilton et al, who also found “aerosol concentrations increased significantly in the pre-industrial atmosphere”.

“Complete contradiction” with model assumptions

“The high levels of natural aerosol emissions in the pre-industrial era are therefore clearly a global phenomenon,” the report said. Die kalte Sonne. “The observed constant of total aerosol emissions is in stark contrast to the assumptions in the IPCC climate models.”

The CO2 warming effect must be much less

“The consequences for climate models could be huge,” Die kalte Sonne added. This means that the warming effect of CO2 will therefore be much less. “Research tells us that CO2 climate sensitivity really must be in the lower range of 1.5-4.5°C warming by IPCC for CO2 to double.”



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