The eastern Canadian Arctic has more sea ice than usual while Svalbard polar bears deal with less – increasing with that?

Dr. Susan Crockford

Svalbard remains ice-free this fall, which has been fairly stable for at least ten years but the ‘normal’ amount of sea ice in the Canadian East Arctic at this point is remarkable. However, contrary to expectations, polar bears in Svalbard are thriving.

Eastern Canada

All dark blue on the chart below shows ‘much larger’ than normal sea ice in Hudson Bay and east of Baffin Island (compared to the long-term average for 1991-2020), indicating conditions like the 1980s for polar bears:

Indeed, excess ice flows back up Davis Strait into Baffin Bay during the third week of November:

I can’t find any ‘departure from normal’ chart I’ve archived with such a dark blue color in Davis Strait on this date. The closest I could find was 2017, which is also a freezing very soon In Hudson Bay:

Oddly, 2018 was similar for Hudson Bay but not Davis Strait:

Here’s what the area band chart for November 24, 2022 looks like:

For comparison, same week in 2016 – the last time polar bears left the west coast of Hudson Bay at the latest in the first weeks of December:

In the same week last year:

Svalbard (West Barents Sea)

The sea ice cover around Svalbard in the Barents Sea is 10th lowest on recordwhich means there have been many years of less ice than this.

Compared to other years, note that this year is equal to 2012 (when summer ice hit a record low) but not the lowest ever:

Polar bears once spawned around Svalbard either burrows in sea ice or go to Franz Josef Land in the eastwhere there is a lot of ice last month: habitat within the official boundaries of the ‘Barents Sea’ subpopulation.

Two weeks ago (November 10, 2022), sea ice hit the northern coast of Novaya Zemlya:

The results of the annual survey conducted this year, discussed hereshows that polar bears are still doing well though about six times lost sea ice like other Arctic regions. The bears know what to do, despite wringing their hands by a vocal expert who thought that the glacial state he knew more than two decades ago should remain forever or disaster would ensue.

In fact, a 2019 study found that female bears around Svalbard have developed strongly in recent years despite the lack of “essential” tape.

“Unexpectedly, the body condition of female polar bears from the Barents Sea increased after 2005, even though the sea ice had receded. 50% since the late 1990s in the region, and the length of the ice-free season has increased by more than 20 weeks from 1979 to 2013. These changes have also been accompanied by a retreat of sea ice in winter, especially markedly different in the Barents Sea from other Arctic regions.” [Lippold et al. 2019:988]

Presenter

Lippold, A., Bourgeon, S., Aars, J., Andersen, M., Polder, A., Lyche, JL, Bytingsvik, J., Jenssen, BM, Derocher, AE, Welker, JM and Routti, H. 2019. Transient trends of persistent organic pollutants in Barents Sea polar bears (Ursus maritimus) related to changes in eating habits and body condition. Environmental Science and Technologyyear 53(2):984-995.