From Cliff Mass’s Weather Blog
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Big Chill Will Save California From Big Melt
The media has talked a lot about possible disasters in California.
This early winter drought-induced warming has been replaced by the dreaded warming of major flooding as a budding “Great Ice Sheet” rapidly melts record-breaking snow and ice over the Golden State.
Desperately, reservoir managers in California have dumped water in a race to prevent reservoirs from overflowing and potentially damaged as temperatures warm.
But now it seems the weather gods have decided to be kind, and meteorological salvation is now in California’s future.
A Beginner Big Chill is about to reduce Big Melt to an acceptable level.
Using Central Europe’s synchronous prediction system, the best in the world, here are the predicted differences from normal surface air temperatures around California for the next week. This is also known as a climatological anomaly.
Blue indicates colder than normal; green is much colder than normal (from 8°F or more).
OH. Lots of blue across the entire state. The mountains above LA will be very cold.
Consider Truckee Airport at 5600 ft in the Sierra Nevada range (see below). There was no heat wave there, with the temperature most nights dropping below 20 degrees Celsius and many days just below 40 degrees Celsius.
The National Weather Service’s extended temperature forecast for all of May from their GFS model is significantly cooler than normal in California.
And did I mention that Pacific sea surface temperatures along the West Coast are MUCH colder than usual? See below. Blue indicates below-normal ocean temperatures.
In short, such suppressed temperatures will be the near future of California and will greatly reduce snowmelt.
This will be one of the most exciting May in California history if the models are correct.
So let’s name it: The California Big Chill.
I know your next question. Why will California be SO COLD next week or so?
The reason: a deep trench, low pressure area, like some of the features seen during much of late winter.
Below is the upper level map for 2pm on Wednesday. The solid lines represent the pressure elevation of 500 hPa (you can think of this as a pressure of about 18,000 ft) and the shading is the difference from the normal for these altitudes/pressures.
An unbelievably strong low off the coast of California. Very unusual for this time of year.
This low lasted for several days and then ANOTHER strong low started moving from the NW on Monday (see below).
Bottom line: it looks like California will get through this unusually wet/snowy period without major flooding.
But one thing is clear: California’s political “leaders” have been extremely irresponsible over the past decades by not adding more reservoir capacity. No new reservoirs have operated in the Golden State in the past 40 years, as the population has doubled.
More reservoirs will not only enhance safety by keeping all of the water wet for slow discharge, but will also provide a huge source of water for the growing population and agriculture in the State.
There is too much talk about global warming and not enough rational planning and action to deal with the state’s known environmental challenges.
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The program and information of the Northwest Weather Conference is online. This meeting, which will take place May 12-13 in Seattle, is the key weather meeting of the year in the Northwest. We have a diverse and exciting agenda. The meeting is open to everyone and if you want to attend you must register (on the website).
We’ll also be hosting a party/chat at Ivar’s Salmon House on Friday, May 12. It’s a fun and hybrid (live and zoom) meetup.
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