This commentary and exhibit was first published at Real Clear Energy on January 17, 2022
by Gregory Wrightstone and Kip Hansen
ONE recent report The World Meteorological Organization states that the number of natural disasters has increased significantly over the past 50 years. Follow WMO Atlas of Mortality and Economic Loss due to Weather, Climate and Water Extremes (1970-2019)), there have been more than 11,000 disasters reported as a result of these hazards globally, with just over 2 million deaths and $3.64 trillion in damage.
The report claims that the number of disasters “has increased fivefold” since 1970 and is caused by man-made additions of carbon dioxide. Referring to this data, WMO Secretary General Petteri Taalas declared:
“The number of extreme weather, climate and water events is increasing and will become more frequent and severe in many parts of the world as a result of climate change. That means more heat waves, droughts and wildfires like what we’ve seen recently in Europe and North America.” “The warming of the oceans is already affecting the frequency and region of existence of the most intense tropical cyclones,” he added.
The chart used to support their alarming claim of a fivefold increase in disasters shown below and measured at face value seems alarming.
Figure 1 – Number of Disasters Reported
Claims about the growing number of these extreme weather events should create alarm if they are accurate. Fortunately for the peoples of the world, the facts flew straight to the face of the report. WMO and its authors have chosen to misrepresent disaster data collected by one of the world’s most respected agencies, Disaster Epidemiology Research Center (CRED) in EM-DAT . Database. WMO bases its report on CRED data as shown below and shown by Our world in data.
Figure 2 – Globally reported disasters by type
Claims of a fivefold increase in the number of disasters appear to be supported by a substantial increase in disasters from 1970 to 2000 and a decline over the past twenty years. Why change from an increase in disaster data for the first 30 years and a decline after that?
It turned out that the period from 1970 to about 2000 were the years CRED was building a data collection system that relied heavily on external reporting. Please note that the title of the WMO chart is “Numbers report disasters, “not the number of disasters”.
CO2 Alliance Scientific Research Fellow Kip Hansen confirmed that the graph is driven by reporting rather than numbers, asking her to confirm that the increase in the early period represents an increase in reported, not the actual increase in natural disasters. Her response via email?
“Thanks for your email. You’re right, it’s an increase in reporting”.
In other words, the number of CRED systems has increased as it has received reports from more sources over the years. Comparing totals from the 1970s to 21st-century data is not only inappropriate, but a blatant abuse of statistics to strengthen a pre-existing conclusion of growing devastation.
To reframe: WMO released a “study” that asserted that climate disasters are on the rise based on numbers the authors know are at best misleading. The actual disaster numbers since the proper reporting were issued show a decline in disasters over the past twenty years, in stark contrast to the WMO’s hyperbolic claims.
The World Meteorological Organization should immediately withdraw this flawed study and issue an official public statement correcting the record.
Gregory Wrightstone is a geologist, executive director of the CO2 Coalition, Arlington, Va., and the author of “Inconvenient Facts: The Science Al Gore Didn’t Want You To Know”.
Kip Hansen is a climate expert specializing in sea level rise and a Science Research Journalist give CO2 Alliance
This commentary and exhibit was first published at Real Clear Energy on January 17, 2022
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