City skyline of Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
kasto80 | iStock | beautiful pictures
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates – The recent missile and drone attack on the UAE capital Abu Dhabi has rocked the Gulf and rattled local markets. While such events are no longer common in the Middle East, they have jarred in a country known for safety and stability amid broader regional turmoil.
The Houthis, a fighter for the Iran-backed Shiite Yemeni movement, have claimed responsibility for what UAE officials describe as a drone and missile attack on Abu Dhabi on January 17 killed three people at the facilities of state oil company ADNOC. The following weeks saw three more attacks by missiles or drones that UAE forces say they have intercepted – the most recent, on February 3, was claimed by an Iraqi militia group. The attacks were then carried out with airstrikes on targets in Yemen, where the UAE is part of a Saudi-led coalition in the war with the Houthis.
United States and UK has issued safety advice for the UAE.
Houthi spokesmen were quick to hail their own attacks and threaten more, vowing they would turn the UAE into an “unsafe country” in retaliation for its involvement in the Yemen war. bloody, now in its seventh year.
But how convincing is that threat? Defense and regional analysts say that’s not quite the case.
“It’s not very realistic. Yes, the Houthis have ballistic missiles from Iran, but the potential for real harm to the UAE is almost certainly limited,” said Hussein Ibish, a resident scholar at the Institute of Nations Arabian Gulf in Washington, told CNBC.
“The missile defense system will be enhanced and possibly effective. And with each attack, the costs to the Houthis and their Iranian supporters will increase in terms of retaliation, escalation and isolation. .”
Satellite photos obtained by the Associated Press on Tuesday show the aftermath of a deadly attack on an oil and gas facility in the capital of the United Arab Emirates claimed by Yemen’s Houthi rebels sovereign father. Images analyzed by Planet Labs PBC by AP show smoke rising at the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company’s fuel depot in the Mussafah area of Abu Dhabi on Monday, January 17, 2022.
Planet Labs via AP
Dave DesRoches, an associate professor and senior military expert at the US National Defense University, told CNBC by phone: “What we saw on Monday is how the UAE’s missile defense system works. any”.
“It really is one of the best protected countries in the world…even Washington DC doesn’t have an active missile defense system.”
On Monday, the head of US Central Command (CENTCOM), General Kenneth F. McKenzie, pledged to assist the UAE in developing an anti-drone defense system and announced the deployment of the machines. F-22 fighter jet to the area. The US has deployed a guided missile destroyer, the USS Cole, to patrol UAE waters.
“We think this is just a friend helping others in a time of crisis,” says McKenzie.
Air defense systems versus drones
The UAE is equipped with the THAAD and Patriot PAC-3 high-altitude missile defense systems, some of the most expensive and advanced in the world. But the remaining threats are much smaller and harder to detect than missiles, and have evaded the defenses of even the wealthiest nations: drones.
“I would be most concerned about cruise missiles and low-flying, low-altitude UAVs (drones),” said John Krzyzaniak, an arms control and technology analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. high precision. “For me, this is a much bigger concern than the Houthis’ ballistic missiles.”
The problem with drones is that they are often not detected by radar, which is the first line of defense of any air defense system.
“Your first problem is getting an image of the drone,” on the radar system, DesRoches said. Drones are often so small that “even if you pick them up, you might not know what you’re looking at,” he says. “Their cross-section is closer to a duck than to an F-15. You don’t know. And that’s the challenge.”
UAE officials deny that their country’s reputation as a stable island is at stake. Anwar Gargash, the former Foreign Minister of the UAE, wrote on Twitter in January: “Terrorists who interfere with the stability of the region are too weak to affect the security and safety in which we live. “
The UAE’s Ministry of Defense and Foreign Affairs did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment.
Powerful ‘Passive Defense’
Meanwhile, security experts say the focus should be on passive defense, which includes making critical infrastructure as resilient as possible and enhancing emergency response services. level and civil defense.
In this respect, the UAE’s defenses are “in very good shape,” said DesRoches, who has spent many years advising the military in the Gulf. A case in point was the rapid fire response and resumption of operations at the ADNOC oil and gas facility that was hit by a drone and missile on January 17.
“It’s not just about buying a lot of expensive crap,” he added. “They’ve actually produced pretty impressive abilities.”
Damages are quickly repaired
Sidharth Kaushal, a military researcher, said: “In any air defense situation, there’s likely to be a few ‘leaks’ or bombers getting through, but “arguably the last few weeks have passed. shows that the UAE is relatively safe.” science at the United Nations Royal Service Institute in London.
“As long as the UAE can continue to ensure that the damage caused is limited and, moreover, quickly repair any damage already caused, they can withstand some degree of pressure from the Houthis without having to bear the long-term costs of its reputation as a safe country.”
Yemenis inspect the rubble of buildings after they were hit by airstrikes by the Saudi-led coalition, in Sanaa, Yemen, Tuesday, January 18, 2022. fighting in Yemen announced it had begun a bombing campaign against Houthi sites a day after a dead man attacked an oil and gas facility in the capital of the United Arab Emirates by rebels. Yemen’s Houthis claim sovereignty.
Hani Mohammed | AP
Part of the Saudi-led coalition that began the air assault on Yemen in 2015, the UAE has largely reduced its presence in the country in 2019, but continues to support the rebels. proxies have dealt significant blows to the Houthis in recent months.
The Saudi-led coalition first invaded Yemen in March 2015 after the Houthis pushed back the internationally recognized government and the country became one of the world’s worst humanitarian disasters. world, with tens of thousands of people dying and millions facing starvation. The Houthis say their attacks on Abu Dhabi are in retaliation for their participation in a war that has killed so many Yemenis.
Will the escalation continue?
Ultimately, “you can’t win a missile war if all you do is shoot down rockets thrown at you,” says DesRoches. “You have to attack the guys who are firing rockets.”
Supporters of the Houthi movement chant slogans as they attend a rally commemorating the 4th anniversary of the Saudi-led military intervention in the war in Yemen, in Sanaa, Yemen March 26 2019.
Khaled Abdullah | Reuters
This raises the issue of escalation into question; The Saudi-led coalition has carried out a number of retaliatory air strikes across the Houthis’ territory in Yemen, some of them mass killing of civilians and temporarily shutting down Yemen’s internet.
It also raises questions about relations with Iran, which backs the Houthis but is also negotiating with its GCC neighbors, perhaps ironically, on how to reduce tensions in the region.
Finally, the UAE has strong allies and analysts believe it is unlikely to become an unsafe place for people to live. However, the escalation looks set to continue, with no clear end to the conflict in sight.
