Warm weather dominated last month, and also dry conditions throughout much of the state. Before those off-seasons, we look How early spring has come This year.
Feeling warm in February
Spring-like temperatures surged in February, making February warmer than normal across the state. Preliminary data from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) considers this to be the case February 16 is the warmest since 1895, with a statewide average temperature of 46.5°F.
That is 2.7°F above the average from 1991 to 2020 and is in line with recent trends. Six of our past seven Februarys have been at least 2 degrees warmer than that 30-year average, including the three warmest Februarys on record in 2018, 2023 and 2017.
Most areas were 2 to 4 degrees above normal last month, among the 10 warmest on record in parts of western North Carolina. It was the 7th warmest February day for pecan And Lincolntonand hottest Thursday in Asheville.
The month included several unseasonably warm periods, including a week mid-month with persistent high temperatures in the 60s and 70s. February 10, with High pressure just offshore and warm southerly winds blew in, temperatures reaching into the 70s in all three regions of the state.
Asheville reached 72°F that afternoon, 20 degrees above normal. Raleigh increase to 76°F and set New record high temperatures daily, breaking last year’s previous record. And New Bern warming to 77°F – the second warmest day of the year so far after hitting 81°F on January 26.
Our most exciting day of the month comes on February 18 after a Cold front walkway. High temperatures reached just above 40 in many areas and some alpine locations never went above freezing, with mercury at Mount Mitchell inching up to 19°F and Grandfather Mountain tops out at 25°F.
Warm weather returned the last week of the month, including temperatures reaching the 70s on February 26 and 28. Our ECONet stations are in Wallace And Whiteville were among the warmest locations, each peaking at 78°F on February 28.
Even if Leap Day brings cooler and cloudier conditions later in the month, the previous warmth is still evident at that time. Charlotte there were 17 days in the entire month with temperatures reaching at least 60°F, the 9th warmest days of any February on record there.
Dry weather and drought return
The El Niño refuels Wet conditions from earlier this winter have tapered off in February, leaving us drier than normal in North Carolina. NCEI recorded a preliminary statewide average rainfall of 1.64 inches and ours October is the driest month over the past 130 years.
The wettest locations were in the far west, although even those areas ended the month with below-average rainfall. HighlandsThere was 4.99 inches in February, for example, which was 1.92 inches below normal and far from its normal level. January total over 17 inches.
There were three notable rain spells across the state last month. From February 11 to 13, Low pressure system stalled bring more than 2 inches of rain to southwestern North Carolina, including a three-day total of 3.20 inches at our ECONet station on Mount Sassafras.
On February 23, one cold face bring another half an inch to an inch of rain in the southern and central mountainous regions. The month ends with showers from February 27 to 29including 0.11 inches on February 29 at Hatteras – was only the second Leap Day with measurable rain there and the first since 1968.
Much of the Piedmont and coastal plains received less than 2 inches of rain for the entire month. 0.94 inches of rain in Charlotte ranked as the 3rd driest February on record, while with a total rainfall of 1.65 inches, it was the 5th driest February for New Bern.
The arrival of drier weather, combined with warmer temperatures, has brought an end to a month-long drought, as Moderate Drought appeared in parts of eastern North Carolina during the last week of the month . The main impact being observed now is decline flow level due to limited additional rainfall in rivers and streams in February.
While this drought is new, our long-term “snow drought” continues into February. Much of the state has now passed more than two years since its last measurable snowfall January 2022and except for the rare March snow, both Asheville And Charlotte will set a new record for no snow later this month.
Even in the mountains, there was hardly any snow last month. Mount Mitchell there was just one snowfall of 1.8 inches on February 25, compared to the monthly normal of 18.6 inches. At our state’s highest point, it’s been a lackluster season, with just 32.4 inches of snow since October 1 – the 4th least for a winter there since 1980.
Follow the progress of spring
Garner’s mole forecaster, Snerd, came up with one early spring forecast This year. But how early has our spring-like weather arrived? We can measure this seasonal transition in a number of different ways, but they all give a similar answer.
One is simply comparing our recent temperatures to the 30-year climate normal. During the last week of February, our average high temperatures ranged from the upper 50s – including 59°F in Greensboro – to the mid-60s, with an average weekly temperature of 64°F in Charlotte, LumbertonAnd Wilmington. In each of those areas, those temperatures were more typical in the second week of March, meaning they occurred about two weeks earlier than normal.
Increasing day – accumulated throughout the year when average daily temperatures exceed a crop-specific temperature threshold, typically around 50°F – is a useful way for farmers to monitor crop growth through different growth stages.
At the end of February, our ECONet station was at Clayton at the Central Crop Research Station measured 124.2 days of growth this year. We typically hit that level by March 9, which also puts this year 1 to 2 weeks ahead of schedule. (For more information about our ECONet and its applications, including agriculture, join us in Online workshop overview of ECONet on March 18 at 10 a.m.)
Final National Phenology Network uses temperature data and mathematical modeling of lilacs and honeysuckle to track first leaf and bloom dates across the country. Their maps show that leafing of these early emerging species is occurring 15 to 20 days earlier than normal across eastern North Carolina.
Each of those indicators points towards Spring arrived one to three weeks early this year. Of course, you can witness this process for yourself as the trees sprout – including beautiful pink cherry blossoms – and the flowers continue to sprout across the landscape.
While these signs of spring, combined with recent warm weather, may encourage you to plant your garden now, remember that we’re still about a month away from spring . Average freeze date last spring in most fields. The recent 30-year average shows that the last freeze date occurred on March 26, 2019 FayettevilleMarch 30, 2019 Charlotteand April 3, 2019 Raleigh.
Many plants can withstand short periods of freezing temperatures, especially with protective measures such as goods cover, but more sensitive species and flowers can be easily damaged by frost or freeze. Extreme cases with prolonged cold spells such as Easter freeze 2007 can even have a significant impact on seasonal yields.
So while the current weather makes early planting extremely attractive, the risk of a climate freeze is always present in March and early April, and recent history about exactly such a season-disrupting event might make you think twice, especially if Old Man Winter decides to make another appearance in North Carolina this spring.
