Spermageddon – Watts Up With That?

Guest essay by Kip Hansen — November 22, 2022

A little softer news about the impending demise of humanity. When asked about his most recent study of sperm counts worldwide, Hagai Levine an Israeli researcher, gave press statement in red box (for crisis). [ source ]

We’ll apologize to Levine for not getting the clichés right – English is probably not his native language. What he means by “low sperm count” is canaries… I think so.

Back in 2017, Hagai Levine, and his team published a paper “Temporary trends in sperm counts: a systematic review and meta-regression analysis”. The “Broader Meaning” of its Summary reads:

This comprehensive meta-regression analysis reports a significant decrease in sperm count (as measured by SC and TSC) between 1973 and 2011, due to a 50–60% decline in unselected men. Selected by fertility from North America, Europe, Australia and New Zealand. Because these results have important public health implications, research into the causes of this continued decline is urgently needed.”

The Age of Israel include the following statement in a 2017 paper about this research:

“This definitive study shows for the first time that this decline is strong and continuing,” said Swan. [professor in New York’s Icahn School’s Department of Environmental Medicine and Public Health and co-author]. The fact that the decline has mainly occurred in Western countries, clearly shows that external factors such as chemicals and lifestyle play “a causal role in this trend,” she said.

[WUWT had a piece on the 2017 study here. ]

Levine reworked his study to collect data from the rest of the world and then meta-regression analysis of that data in his latest follow-up study in 2022:Transient trends in sperm counts: a systematic review and meta-regression analysis of samples collected globally in the 20th and 21st centuries.“

BIGGER MEANING: This analysis is the first to report a decline in sperm count in unselected men from South/Central America–Asia–Africa, in contrast to the meta-analysis. Our previous case was not powerful enough to test those continents. Furthermore, the data shows that this worldwide decline is continuing into the 21st century at a faster rate. Research into the causes of this continued decline and actions to prevent further disruption to men’s reproductive health is urgently needed.“

As always, the press uses the alarming quote Levine says, (repeating our quote above):

“Our findings act like a canary in a coal mine. We are facing a serious problem that, if not mitigated, could threaten the very existence of humanity. We urgently call for global action to promote healthier environments for all species and reduce exposure and behaviors that threaten our reproductive health.” [ source ]

Well, Dr. Swan’s prediction that the cause must be “chemicals and lifestyle” in Western countries didn’t work out… the same group found the same thing in the less developed global south. The 2022 paper doesn’t blame or suggest a cause, but calls for “urgent research into the causes of this continued decline and actions to prevent further disruption to the reproductive health of women.” male”.

Take a look at the newspaper’s money chart:

You’ll notice that this chart is based on “hybrid regression models”….and Levine is happy that his new study confirms and reinforces the findings of the 2017 study.

But what about his predictions about the end of humanity?

The first study in 2017 found decreased sperm concentration (SC) and total sperm count (TSC) in North America, Europe, Australia and New Zealand, and the second study in 2022 found the same. themselves in South/Central America, Asia and Africa. It would be helpful to consider whether this dire situation has affected the human population over the past 20 years:

I do not see that any adverse effects are predicted from sperm count or total sperm count on the developing population of any given continent. The population growth trend accelerated even faster after 1955/1960 – and shows no signs of slowing down – despite Levine’s findings of lower sperm counts or counts.

And the fertility rate?

Birth rate downward like standard of living go up. In North America we saw a baby boom after the Second World War and as time went on, by 1970-1975, that rate dropped and was pretty stable. Every continent is sloping down, and at the turn of the century, the birth rates of every continent, except Africaand the global fertility rate has stabilized at above or below 2.

Interestingly, just looking at the North American trace (amber), we can see the effect of Zero population growth The movement (Paul Erlich and the crowd) gained traction in the late 1960s, which may have reduced the birth rate in the 1980s when it began to recover slightly to the “2” level. The replacement rate in developed countries is considered as 2.1.

Africa remains poor and suffers from a high birth rate: 60% of the population in Africa is under the age of 25, which is truly a continent of children.

There seems to be no human (male or female) fertility problem anywhere.

Key point:

Sperm seems to be something we could add to the list.”Fake invisible catastrophes and threats of doom“.

For better or worse, humans continue to reproduce and the human population continues to grow.

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Author’s comments:

Dr Levine and his research colleagues may have discovered something – it could be that sperm count and total sperm density are decreasing. And maybe “if things stay that way” (trendline stretching into the future) it could affect human fertility. It has not done so so far.

Whatever your view of human population growth may be, it’s clearly not fertility problems slow down our growing numbers. In the most developed countries (US, UK and Empire, EU), the birth rate is often lower than the replacement rate. Immigration to the most developed countries leads to an increase in the total population in those countries.

The best solution to “overpopulation” is to help poorer countries raise their living standards. I quote overpopulation because not everyone agrees that overpopulation exists globally. It certainly exists in the sense that many countries and localities have more people than they can reasonably care for with local resources.

Please note, my wife and I have four grown children. So, statistically, we’ve been providing substitutes for ourselves.

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