By J. Keeler Johnson (“Keelerman”) Twitter: @J_Keelerman
One of the most challenging to
handicap Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races so far this year is coming up on
Saturday at Tampa Bay Downs. That’s the $250,000 Sam F. Davis S. (G3), which
has drawn an ultra-competitive field of 11 colts and one gelding to race 1 1/16
miles.
One reason why the race is
so competitive is the fact none of the dozen entrants have run particularly
fast on the Beyer or Brisnet speed figure scales. The highest Beyer Speed
Figure in the field is an 83, while the highest Brisnet Speed rating is a 94.
This means it won’t take much improvement for a longshot to challenge for
victory.
In sorting through the
contenders, I was initially drawn to #6
Agate Road. Trained by Todd Pletcher, who has won the Sam F. Davis a record
seven times, Agate Road has shown plenty of talent on turf. Last year, he
unleashed a giant homestretch rally to win a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight
at Saratoga, after which he rallied to win the Pilgrim S. (G2) and finish fifth
(beaten only 2 1/2 lengths) in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1).
Agate Road also ran well in
his three-year-old debut, finishing second in the Dania Beach S. at Gulfstream
Park. That one-mile contest featured slow early fractions of :25.32 and :50.08
set by a gate-to-wire winner, so Agate Road ran deceptively well to sprint his
final quarter-mile in approximately :22.52 and finish only 1 1/2 lengths
behind.
But… even though Agate Road
finished second by a nose when debuting on dirt in a one-mile maiden special
weight at Saratoga, I question whether his performance that day is a true
indication of dirt prowess. The race was rained off the turf, and the final
quarter-mile elapsed in :27.99, so Agate Road’s rally after a slow start was
aided by a sharply decelerating pace.
That’s why I’ve settled on #7 Copper Tax as my choice to win the
Sam F. Davis. The son of Copper Bullet is bred for speed, and I’ll admit 1 1/16
miles may stretch the limits of his stamina. But it’s encouraging to note
Copper Tax dominated the one-mile Rocky Run S. at Delaware Park as part of a
five-race win streak last year, leading all the way to prevail by 6 3/4 lengths
over a field including next-out Inaugural S. runner-up #4 Crazy Mason and recent Swale S. winner Frankie’s Empire.
Copper Tax earned an 81
Beyer in the Rocky Run and followed up with an 82 when rallying to win the six-furlong
James F. Lewis III S. at Laurel Park by a neck over next-out Gulfstream
allowance optional claiming winner Inveigled, who finished fourth in the Holy
Bull S. (G3) last week. On the Brisnet scale, those victories yielded
back-to-back 94 Speed ratings, so Copper Tax ranks among the fastest horses in
the Sam F. Davis field.
Some bettors will hesitate
to support Copper Tax because he faltered in his first Road to the Kentucky
Derby foray, finishing sixth by 14 3/4 lengths in the 1 1/8-mile Remsen S. (G2)
at Aqueduct two months ago. But the Remsen took place over a strongly
speed-favoring track, so Copper Tax—racing in midpack while losing significant
ground around the turns—never had a fair chance to win.
From all appearances, the
Remsen was a deep race. Third-place finisher Drum Roll Please returned to win
the Jerome S., seventh-place finisher Domestic Product bounced back to run
second as a longshot in the Holy Bull, and Le Dom Bro and Billal—ninth and
eighth in the Remsen—improved to finish second and fourth in the Swale.
Assuming Copper Tax
encounters a fair track in the Sam F. Davis, I think we’ll see him bounce back
with a big run. He enters off back-to-back one-mile workouts at Laurel Park,
which will hopefully build his stamina, and his versatility in terms of running
style affords him options for working out a favorable trip. I’m willing to bet
Copper Tax can spring a small surprise at Tampa.
Still, multi-race bettors
might want to use #9 Change of Command for
good measure. The Shug McGaughey trainee has made steady progress since
debuting with a fourth-place finish at Saratoga behind future Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
(G1) winner Fierceness. Change of Command enters off maiden special weight and
$75,000 allowance optional claiming victories at Gulfstream Park, and on the
Beyer and Brisnet scales he’s more or less as fast as Copper Tax. McGaughey has
gone 7-for-14 (50%) at Tampa since December, and Change of Command is adding
blinkers for his stakes debut, so there’s a lot to like about his chances.
Now it’s your turn! Who do
you like in the Sam F. Davis?
*****
Want to test your handicapping skills against fellow Unlocking Winners readers? Check out the Unlocking Winners contest page—there’s a new challenge every week! (Please note: older contest entries can be found here.)
*****
The Unlocking Winners Road to the Kentucky Derby Handicapping Challenge is back! Check out the special contest page to play along.
J. Keeler Johnson (also known as “Keelerman”) is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
