Scott Minerd, global chief investment officer at Guggenheim Partners, said don’t get too excited about this recovery as the bear market is still intact and a major sell-off is imminent. “This is the worst time of the year seasonally,” Minerd said on Thursday’s “Closed Hours” show. “Given the recent strength of the last couple of days, it seems like everyone is ignoring the macro landscape, the monetary policy landscape, which would basically indicate that the bear market is still intact. Seasonally and how far off the limit are we in historical P/E, we’ll see a really quick price correction.” The much-followed strategist has called for the S&P 500 to fall. 20% from here in mid-October and he said it could be a buying opportunity for traders if and when the stock benchmark falls into the 3,000 to 3,400 range. The S&P 500 was up more than 2% this week to 4,006.18 as of the end of Thursday, on track for its first winning week in four weeks. The benchmark is up 10% from its June low. Minerd said many investors have a false sense of optimism for the economy because they are looking at lagging indicators. He believes stocks could feel the pain as the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates aggressively to combat rising inflation. “The employment index is a laggard,” says Minerd. “At the moment, a lot of what people are pointing to is that what I mean is nominally positive… But at the same time inflation is getting so high that, in real terms, this is really negative numbers.” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Thursday stressed the importance of reducing inflation now before the public gets too used to higher prices, vowing to raise interest rates “until the job is done.” .” Traders are currently pricing in an 86% chance of a three-quarter point rate hike at the next Fed meeting later this month, according to CME Group’s FedWatch measure. “If we get a sudden drop in the stock market, that will bring the credit markets to a boil… I think we are already in limited territory,” Minerd said. “I think the Fed has a mindset or fear that if they suddenly end or pause they run the risk of losing their credibility.”