Russian President Vladimir Putin talks to President Biden via videoconference on December 7 about tensions in Ukraine. Russia has deployed about 100,000 troops near the Ukrainian border. As Russia’s leader, Putin has sent Russian forces on numerous combat missions, including the 2014 invasion of Ukraine.
Mikhail Metzel / AP
hide captions
switch captions
Mikhail Metzel / AP
Russian President Vladimir Putin talks to President Biden via videoconference on December 7 about tensions in Ukraine. Russia has deployed about 100,000 troops near the Ukrainian border. As Russia’s leader, Putin has sent Russian forces on numerous combat missions, including the 2014 invasion of Ukraine.
Mikhail Metzel / AP
When Vladimir Putin came to power in 1999, he immediately called up the Russian army.
“This was really his first act, to kick off the war in Chechnya,” Angela Stent, who is director of Georgetown University’s Center for Eurasian, Russian and Eastern European Studies and met Putin at an annual conference during his presidency.
The Russian army finally subdued the rebels in Chechnya, an area inside southern Russia. Over the years, Putin has sent Russian forces on a number of combat missions abroad, including the former Soviet republics of Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014, as well as Syria in 2015. .
Putin’s military moves have drawn sanctions and boycotts from the West. The Russian economy is weakening, and Russia is often described as a “declining power”.
However, Putin, who has now been president or prime minister for 22 years, strongly disagrees. The Russian military remains a powerful force, and Putin has repeatedly used – or threatened to use it – to demonstrate that Russia is still a country worthy of consideration.
Russia has now reinforced by about 100,000 troops on its border with Ukraine, although it is unclear whether Putin is planning another invasion of Ukraine or just a bluff to win political concessions.
However, with his achievements, Putin is being taken seriously.
“The Kremlin will only stop when it stops,” Ben Hodges, who served as commander of the US Army in Europe when he retired in 2017 as a lieutenant general.
Hodges, now living in Germany, has been observing the Soviet and Russian armies since he was sent to Europe as a young army officer in the 1980s.
He said of Russia’s military actions in recent years: “They don’t give up an inch. “They just keep expanding. Sometimes they use actual force. Sometimes they use threatening force. It seems like we are always behind, that they always have leverage. We always respond to them. .”
This month marks 30 years since the breakup of the Soviet Union, an event Putin has described as the “greatest geopolitical disaster” of the 20th century.
This, Stent says, motivates Putin to pursue two clear goals. First, he stressed that Russia must be seen as a major global power. And second, his opposition to Western influence, including NATO expansion, over what he sees as his neighborhood.
“Putin has been determined, since becoming president, not necessarily to restore the Soviet Union, but to let the West understand and accept the fact that this is Russia’s sphere of influence,” Stent said.
Ukrainian tanks are transported towards the Luhansk region in eastern Ukraine on Sunday. Ukraine says its military is much better prepared than it was in 2014, when Russia invaded and occupied Crimea. However, Russia’s forces are still considered much stronger.
Andriy Dubchak / AP
hide captions
switch captions
Andriy Dubchak / AP
Ukrainian tanks are transported towards the Luhansk region in eastern Ukraine on Sunday. Ukraine says its military is much better prepared than it was in 2014, when Russia invaded and occupied Crimea. However, Russia’s forces are still considered much stronger.
Andriy Dubchak / AP
Putin likes to let his opponents guess. Last April, Russia massively stationed troops on the Ukrainian border. Putin did not invade, but the episode led to the summit between Putin and President Biden in Geneva, Switzerland, in June.
Now, Biden is warning of harsh financial sanctions if Russia invades. Ukrainians President Volodymyr Zelensky says his country’s military is much stronger than it was when Russia invaded in 2014, partly because of increased Western military support.
So what is the possible outcome this time?
Russian leaders say the country has no plans to invade and is free to place its troops anywhere on Russian soil. But the rhetoric is heating up, and stressful conditions increase the risk of miscalculation.
“All of this may be murky on the part of Moscow, Washington and Kiev, but all parties seem to have really followed suit,” he said. Tim Frye, a Columbia University professor and author of the book, The Strong and Weak: The Limits of Power in Putin’s Russia.
This satellite image, provided by Maxar Technologies and taken on November 9, shows a position of the Russian military in Yelna, southern Russia, near the border with Ukraine.
AP via Maxar Technologies
hide captions
switch captions
AP via Maxar Technologies
This satellite image, provided by Maxar Technologies and taken on November 9, shows a position of the Russian military in Yelna, southern Russia, near the border with Ukraine.
AP via Maxar Technologies
Frye distinguishes between two separate Russian military operations in Ukraine in 2014.
In the first, Russia occupied the Crimean peninsula quickly and without any serious fighting. Russia remains in full control, although its annexation of Crimea has not been recognized internationally.
“Definitely one of the reasons why the annexation of Crimea became so popular [in Russia] is that it has almost no blood. It’s a low-risk, high-reward activity,” says Frye.
In the second, which occurred just weeks later in 2014, Russia supported separatists fighting in eastern Ukraine. That conflict has reached a stalemate, although sporadic skirmishes have broken out and some 14,000 people have been killed.
“Fighting in eastern Ukraine is something much more costly for the Kremlin,” Frye said.
He believes Putin will probably settle for a negotiated deal that gives him strong political influence in Ukraine – and is not linked to an invasion.
Negotiations between the US, Russia and others are scheduled for the coming days. But there is no guarantee Putin will give in, and his aggressive actions have turned most Ukrainians against Russia.
“If he doesn’t realize that he’s really alienated the Ukrainian people by doing all this, he really isn’t getting a very good response,” Stent said.
Hodges says that although the Soviet Union may be long gone, many Russians still share Putin’s belief that they should have a strong influence in the countries of the former Soviet Union.
“If President Putin falls off his horse tomorrow, we will still have to deal with this problem for many years to come,” Hodges said. “So this isn’t just about him.”
But for now, everyone is watching Putin to see what he does next.
Greg Myre was NPR’s national security correspondent, who was based in Russia from 1996-99. Follow him @gregmyre1.
