The failed uprising of Yevgeny V. Prigozhin has sharply reduced his domestic support, but nearly 30% of Russians continue to rate the mercenary leader Wagner positively, according to residual polls. opinion whose results were published on Monday.
Results from two surveys conducted in June by Russian Field, a nonpartisan research firm based in Moscow, show Mr. Prigozhin’s decision to bring his Wagner mercenary to Moscow on the 24th. June reversed a steady rise in opinion polls that had made him one of Russia’s best. famous wartime leaders.
Mr. Prigozhin’s brief rebellion, which he put an end to within hours, was poses the most dramatic challenge to the leadership of President Vladimir V. Putin during his two decades in power.
Mr. Prigozhin’s remaining support is particularly striking given the Russian government’s concerted effort to discredit him; lack of public support for the mutiny from Russian political and military leaders; and the deaths of several Russian military pilots while confronting Wagner’s rebels. The polls also come amid an increasingly draconian crackdown on free speech, which has left Russians jailed for expressing anti-government views.
Experts are divided over the accuracy of the poll in Russia, where it is illegal to criticize the war in Ukraine. Some argue that repression prevents respondents from expressing their true views. Polling companies defend their work by saying that well-designed surveys can still produce reliable results.
Some 70 to 80 percent of those reached by phone by Russian Fields declined to participate, indicating difficulties in capturing public opinion in the country.
Russian Field surveyed two separate groups of about 1,600 people across Russia by phone, one shortly before and the other shortly after Wagner’s mutiny. Polls have a margin of error of 2.5 percent.
Overall, Mr. Prigozhin’s support fell by 26 percentage points after the mutiny, according to the poll. 29% of those surveyed said they still view Mr Prigozhin positively, while nearly 40% said they view the mercenary leader negatively. A third of respondents said they were unfamiliar with his activities or refused to answer.
The findings seem to be consistent with an analysis conducted in June by FilterLabs.AI, a public opinion company that monitors internet and social networking forums to monitor popular sentiment in Russia. That analysis shows that support for Mr Prigozhin plummeted after the rebellion.
As Mr. Prigozhin made increasingly scathing attacks against Russia’s ruling class, his support grew steadily until he staged a high-paying chess game against the government, Russian polls Field shows. His approval rating by Russians rose 14 percentage points, to 55%, from February to early June, according to the research firm, despite a lack of media coverage from television networks due to dominant state, which continues to be an influential source of news for Russians.
“Prigozhin’s assessment is based on two pillars: Vladimir Putin’s support and honest rhetoric. He calls things by their names and talks about issues that others are afraid to talk about,” Artemiy Vvedenskiy, founder of Russian Field, said in a written response to questions.
Polls show that state propaganda has been somewhat successful in changing these perceptions. According to polls, after the uprising, support for Mr Prigozhin fell the most among Russians over the age of 60 and those who mostly get their information from television.
By contrast, 18- to 44-year-old Russians are almost evenly split between supporters and opponents of Mr Prigozhin, polls show. The mercenary leader and tycoon also maintains strong support among the Russians, who derive their information mainly from the popular messaging app Telegram and internet news sites, suggesting that His online media network has considerable reach.
Mr. Prigozhin arrived in Belarus last week, according to that country’s pro-Russian president, Aleksandr G. Lukashenko, although he has not been seen publicly since the uprising. Russian government blocked news and other websites controlled by leader Wagner.
Mr Vvedenskiy said: “His future popularity will depend on how active he is in public, given that very few ‘outspoken gunmen’ remain in the controlled media space. Russia’s tight control, Mr. Vvedenskiy said.
Julian Barnes contribution report.
