The Hopeful Stakes (G1) for 2-year-olds, Dec. 28 at Hanshin Racecourse, would be all about Shin Emperor—if it were not for Gonbade Qabus.
The Hopeful is the final top-level grass race of the year in Japan. For the nation’s most promising juveniles, it is a potential 2,000-meter (about 1 1/4 miles) stepping stone to the next year’s classics and, perhaps, international stardom. Shin Emperor and Gonbade Qabus already have a head start down that road.
Shin Emperor is a son of Siyouni , out of the Galileo mare Starlet’s Sister . That makes him a full brother to Sottsass , winner of the 2020 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1) among three group 1 victories, and a half brother to Sistercharlie , who won seven grade 1 races in the United States.
He lived right up to that breeding—not to mention his €2.1 million price tag that topped the 2022 Arqana August Yearling Sale—winning his debut by three lengths. In his next start, the Kyoto Nisai Stakes (G3), he blew the start, then used all of the race’s 2,000 meters to circle the field and win by a half-length.
His connections have mentioned the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby, G1) as a logical target but reportedly have dreamed of the Epsom Derby (G1) and Japan’s elusive international target—the Arc. Owner Susumu Fujita and trainer Yoshito Yahagi are experienced and successful on the international scene.
Shin Emperor is getting a taste of international life early. Joao Moreira had the ride in the Kyoto Nisai Stakes but Kazakhstan native Bauyrzhan Murzabayev is in the irons as Shin Emperor starts at gate 6 in a field of 17 (after a post-draw scratch) for the Hopeful. Assistant trainer Yusaku Oka bowed to Shin Emperor’s bloodlines.
“He has a lot of potential and it’s not often you get to work with a horse with a pedigree like he has, so I’m feeling the pressure,” Oka said. “He’s still very young, full of mischief and quite a handful.”
Not all the attention is on the French-bred.
Gonbade Qabus’ sire, Bricks and Mortar , a Horse of the Year and five-time grade 1 winner in the United States, was acquired by the Yoshida racing powerhouse to play a prominent role in Japanese breeding and Gonbade Qabus looks like an early return on that investment.
The colt won his debut with ease by 1 3/4 lengths. In the Saudi Arabia Royal Cup (G3), he was last rounding into the stretch, shot between rivals and drew off smartly to win by two lengths, looking for more. While he has not gone farther than 1,600 meters (about a mile), his style and breeding indicate distance should not be a problem.
Jockey Kohei Matsuyama takes the reins for trainer Noriyuki Hori and must work out a trip from the inside post position. Hori, meanwhile, did not sound overly confident heading into the race.
“It’s the first crop of Bricks and Mortar, and I had thought that they were slow to grow … Now I think at the time it wasn’t a matter of growth, but it looks like the intense heat this past summer had even taken its toll with just his routine work,” Hori said.
“He still has a lot of ups and downs mentally. He’ll get upset suddenly or lean on the bit, spook at things or lose concentration … But he is slowly improving, so I plan on discussing that with the rider. This race should help tie in with the spring races.”
These are, of course, 2-year-olds, so anything could pop up from the rest of the field. It is telling, however, that of the 22 nominees, only five others earned a spot in the lineup, with the others needing luck in a lottery to make the field.
