Kip Hansen’s guest essay – May 29, 2022
National public radio station is one of the purveyors of biased information on climate and climate-related issues in the United States. Their narratives on all topics under the “Climate” or “Environment” classification are closely aligned with the official views and statements of the United Nations organization, and recommended policies. and closely tied to their publicly stated goals (autocratic and undemocratic) and the information of NPR sources are often extremist groups and activist NGOs. As far as I can tell in years of reporting on science, health and the environment, NPR’s climate and environmental journalists have yet to issue a single unbiased report. In today’s cancel culture, I don’t blame them – if any of them disagree with their co-workers, they’ll be embarrassed, fired, and never work in other departments. progressive media.
The latest example is the word Rebecca Herscher: “Rebecca Hersher (she/she) is a reporter for NPR’s Science Desk, where she reports on disease outbreaks, natural disasters, and environmental and health research.” “Get ready for another destructive Atlantic hurricane season,” she wrote. listen on May 24, 2022” above All things Considered.
Federal forecasters warn of more hurricanes and tropical storms than usual this year’s Atlantic hurricane season.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predict a total of 14 to 21 hurricanes will grow large enough to be named. Of those, forecasters expect six to 10 storms, three to six of which will have sustained wind speeds above 110 mph.
If the forecast is correct, this would be the seventh consecutive year of above-average hurricane numbers – by far the longest streak in recorded history. The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and ends on November 30, although hurricanes sometimes form outside of those dates.
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Some of those components are unrelated to human-caused global climate change. For example, the natural climate change known as La Niña has been happening for many years, and it promotes wind and ocean conditions that support the formation of tropical storms in the Atlantic.
But many of the other components to a devastating hurricane season are related to human-caused climate change. Hotter ocean water and hotter air create the perfect conditions for hurricanes to form and be destructive. And rising sea levels exacerbate flooding as storms make landfall.“
NPR’s Herschel repeatedly uses the word “destructive” in her report and says forecasters are “warning” as if it were part of NOAA’s annual hurricane season outlook. But, this is NOAA factual statement:
“Forecasts at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, is predicting above-average hurricane activity this year – which would make it the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season. NOAA’s forecast for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 65% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and a 25% chance of a near-normal season. 10% chance lower than normal. Season.
For the 2022 hurricane season, NOAA forecasts a possible 14 to 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph). or more), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA provides these ranges with 70% confidence. “
I have put last year’s prediction along with the upcoming season’s prediction. More or less the same, with a slight 5% increase in the chance of having an “above average” season (at 70% confidence level). NOAA’s forecast was pretty close: There were 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), including 7 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher) of which 4 were major (winds) 111 mph or more).
This year’s prediction is basically: Many of the same things.
NOAA added one more Named Hurricane compared to last year and the possibility of one more Major. Why?
“The predicted increase in activity this hurricane season is due to a number of climatic factors, including La Niña that is likely to persist during hurricane season, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Caribbean Seas, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and intensification of the West African monsoon. An intensifying West African monsoon supports stronger African Easter Waves, producing many of the strongest and longest-lasting storms of most seasons. The manner in which climate change impacts the intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones is an area of ongoing research by NOAA scientists.”
In the larger scheme of things, we know that the increase in the number of named storms over the past few decades is the result of better detection methods, which use satellites and radar to detect storms at sea that could have previously been missed and not counted. .
Are hurricanes becoming more frequent and stronger?
Do not follow real world data compliant with Dr. Ryan Maue:
None of the data above indicates that Global or Northern Hemisphere Hurricanes are becoming more frequent or stronger. The frequency of Major Storms has been in a tight band for a long time and is currently at a low – the lowest since 1987. The cumulative storm energy is flat and at levels last seen in the 1970s and 1980s. (Some of the smaller storms may not have been counted in the previous two decades.) Finally, both global tropical cyclones and global hurricane frequency are long-term constant over a 50-year period.
There is no indication that tropical cyclones or storms, globally or in the Northern Hemisphere, are increasing in number or intensity.
When NOAA advises the public to prepare in advance and know their real risks, they are doing the right thing, doing their job.
When NPR tries to add terror to the hearts of the public by turning NOAA’a annual hurricane outlook into something a little more terrifying, they are failing in their job as journalist.
That said, tropical cyclones and hurricanes are high-energy weather phenomena – they contain an incredible amount of energy and are converted to wind energy, which can be destructive. I’ve faced the storm head-to-head twice on our sailboat – fortunately a heavier built 40ft catamaran in Southhampton. It was a horrifying and terrifying experience.
If you live in a hurricane-prone locality, know your actual risks and plan accordingly – prepare early when the opportunity arises. Being well prepared is better than not being prepared enough.
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Author’s comment:
One only needs to visit a Caribbean island that has been hit by direct Atlantic hurricanes to understand how powerful they can be. The Weather Channel reporter’s silly standing on a rainy, windy street doesn’t convey the real risk – in fact, it makes storms sound like something fun and exciting. That is irresponsible television journalism. If you are in an active storm, stay indoors safely in a structurally storm-resistant building. Don’t mess outside.
Inflating natural phenomena to fuel the Climate Crisis and its policies requires intentionally scaring people, in my opinion, it is criminal to shout “Fire!” in a crowded theater.
There are dangers in our world, one of which is hurricanes, especially for those localities that have foolishly built advanced coastal cities with billions of dollars in infrastructure at high altitudes. less than 10 feet above normal high water levels – and many of that are on ephemeral dunes. Think Miami, Florida or Atlantic City, NJ. The answer is not panic, but better planning, foresight, and reducing known risk.
Thanks for reading.
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