House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy knows all this but is under pressure to back the governor for his ability to run for Speaker of the House after the midterm in 2022 in the event of a GOP majority. in the House of Representatives, as most experts and pollsters
guess. However, it is not a good idea to go public about any of these internal discussions based on the recent history and circumstances of former GOP House speakers.
The last time House Republicans elected a speaker, it was a mess. Take a look at the history, what led up to that war, and how it impacted McCarthy.
There are several moments on the floor of the United States House of Representatives that will forever be indelible in my political memory. One occurred on July 28, 2015, a few days before Parliament’s recess in August. Then, second-term Representative Mark Meadows took to the floor with a proposal
“leave seats” which the legislature said to fire and remove the Speaker of the House, who at the time was John Boehner.
Not surprisingly, Speaker Boehner
not appreciated This most unwelcome coup d’etat led by Meadows and several members of
The Freedom House caucus, a group that includes about 40 hardline members of the House Republican Convention. That a third-year congressman would lead such a rebellion stunned nearly everyone in the room. As the intended target of this widely seen as coup d’etat, Boehner reacted with considerable and measured restraint.
Noticing the heated conversations among Freedom Caucus members on the floor as Meadows’ resolution came up, I ran to the Speakers senior staff in the well in the chamber and begged them to call the question to ask. an immediate vote. Moments later, I said the same thing to Boehner, arguing that the Freedom Caucus was clearly divided on this issue and that it was time to put down this half-baked uprising quickly.
Rather than destroy his enemies in response, Boehner refused to make a vote on the issue that concerns some of his House Republican allies, who are facing election pressure. primaries and do not want this vote to be weaponized against them. I completely disagree with that thought and want to quell this mutiny in its cradle. If fear of a primaries will prevent some GOP members from doing the right thing in this case, it’s time to grow or find another career. Voters may feel scared and helpless; time to stand and be counted.
Two months later, on September 25, and the day after Pope Francis addressed Congress, Speaker Boehner
announced his intention to resign from Parliament. Finally, Meadows got what he wanted.
This gives us the full circle of the plight of House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy. Back in 2015, McCarthy
try to become a presenter, only to be torpedoed during his mission by several members of the Freedom Caucus, who had just defeated Boehner. This plunged the House of Commons into turmoil and caused a leadership vacuum for several days until
Paul Ryan agreed,
reluctantly, to become a Speaker.
The toxic political dynamics that prevented McCarthy in 2015 remained the same or worse. Donald Trump appears more problematic for McCarthy than the Liberal caucus at this point, although there is little daylight between these members and Trump on most issues. Trump, who has always been short-tempered and cold towards McCarthy, could blow up his speech campaign. In fact, Mark Meadows is very public and unhelpful
pitch the idea of Trump becoming the next Speaker of the House. Firebrand Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene goes public
also raised concerns with McCarthy. After the phone call with McCarthy, she tweeted a more supportive statement.
After the extreme elements
weaken McCarthy in 2015, he may be looking to avoid a similar situation if Republicans take the House by midterm in 2022. But victory over fringe elements like Greene in the current GOP Convention could cost prices for McCarthy with pragmatic, fact-based members, many of whom represent more competitive areas and are upset by extremist members’ comments and behavior, who who is a never-ending source of distraction and confusion and risks driving the GOP’s efforts to win back the majority.
McCarthy’s dilemma is this: His efforts to placate extremists during his conference risk leaving moderates increasingly agitated by an inability to restrain themselves. extremists and enforce standards of conduct (He should have acted quickly to
remove Greene and
Representative Paul Gosar from their committee duties, and at the very least, condemn Rep. Lauren Boebert for making “taboo” comments against Democrat Representative Ilhan Omar). McCarthy has a problem on the far right, a problem in the center.
If the GOP wins a substantial majority in the midterms of 2022, McCarthy’s chances of becoming a speaker will be much greater than if it were narrowly won. A narrow GOP majority would cause real trouble for McCarthy along with Trump and some hardliners like Representative Taylor Greene.
The pragmatic center-right Republicans, who should not be taken lightly, believe McCarthy has been overly supportive of Trump and other radical voices in the GOP. With a slim House majority, the hardliners will likely use their leverage to squeeze or take out McCarthy just as they did with Boehner in 2015.
At this point, it is too early to predict who will become the next Speaker of the House, and no one is qualified for the job. There are no known or announced GOP challengers for McCarthy during his speaker duties. If he stumbles, expect a free mess.
Should McCarthy be the speaker, the bigger challenge for Republicans, with momentum spinning in the GOP, is: what will they be able to accomplish?
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