La Nina and warmer-than-average ocean temperatures are the main drivers of tropical activity
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NOAA National Weather Service forecasters at Climate Forecast Center predicts above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season. normal and a 5% chance of a below-normal hurricane season. season.
NOAA forecasts a total of 17 to 25 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (with winds of 74 mph or more), including 4 to 7 major storms (category 3, 4, or 5; with winds of 111 mph or more). Forecasters have 70% confidence within these ranges.
The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have above-normal activity due to a combination of factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic, the development of the Hurricane Nina in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds, and less wind shear all tend to favor tropical cyclone formation.
NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. “AI-enabled language translations and new descriptions of inland wind threats in the forecast cone are just two examples of proactive steps our agency is taking to meet our mission to save people and protect property.”
“Severe weather and emergencies can happen at any time, which is why individuals and communities need to prepare today,” said FEMA Deputy Administrator Erik A. Hooks. now”. “Currently, we are seeing storms move across the country and could bring additional dangers such as tornadoes, flooding and hail. Taking a proactive approach to our increasingly challenging climate landscape today can make a difference in how people can recover tomorrow.”
As one of the strongest El Ninos ever observed comes to a close, NOAA scientists predict a rapid transition to La Nina conditions are favorable for Atlantic storm activity because La Nina tends to reduce wind shear in the tropics. At the same time, abundant ocean heat content in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea generates more energy to promote hurricane development.
This hurricane season also has the potential for an above-normal West African monsoon, which could produce East African winds that produce some of the strongest and longer-lasting Atlantic hurricanes. Finally, light trade winds allow storms to grow stronger without being interrupted by strong wind shear, while also minimizing ocean cooling. Human-caused climate change is warming our oceans globally and in the Atlantic basin, while also melting ice on land, leading to rising sea levels, increasing water risk. storm surge. Sea level rise represents a clear human influence on the potential for damage from a given storm.
Enhanced contact information is available for the 2024 season
NOAA will make improvements to its forecast communications, decision support, and storm recovery efforts this season. Including:
- The National Hurricane Center (NHC) will expand its offering Spanish text product includes all Public Advisories, Tropical Storm Discussions, Tropical Storm Updates and Key Messages in the Atlantic basin.
- Starting on or around August 15, NHC will begin issuing Test version of forecast cone graphics includes a depiction of inland hurricane and tropical storm warnings in effect for the continental United States. Research indicates that adding inland watches and warnings to the cone graphic will help communicate inland hazards during tropical storm events without unduly complicating the current version of the graphic.
- This season, the NHC will be able to issue U.S. tropical cyclone warnings and alerts along with regular or intermediate public advisories. This means that if updates to storm or wind surge monitoring and warnings are needed, NHC will be able to notify the public as an intermediate advisory rather than having to wait for a full follow-up advisory. given every 6 hours.
New tools to analyze and forecast this year’s storms
- Two new forecast models developed by NOAA researchers will be operational this season: Modular Ocean Model or MOM6 will be added to the Storm Forecast and Analysis System to improve the representation of the ocean’s key role in driving storm intensity. Another model, SDCONpredicts the possibility of tropical storms rapidly strengthening.
- of NOAA New generation flood map, implemented through President Biden’s bipartisan Infrastructure Act, will provide water and emergency managers with information to prepare for and respond to potential flooding, and helps local officials better prepare to protect people and infrastructure.
- NOAA Weather Prediction Centerin partnership with NHC, will produce experimental precipitation graphics for the Caribbean and Central America during the 2024 hurricane season. This graphic provides forecast total precipitation associated with a tropical cyclone or disturbance over a range specified time.
Upgrade the system in progress
NOAA will upgrade observing systems critical to understanding and forecasting hurricanes. These projects will provide more observations of the ocean and atmosphere in the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico, on the US East Coast and in the tropical Atlantic.
- Starting in June, dozens of underwater observation gliders are planned to be deployed in waters off the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and the east coast of the United States. Also, one A new mild dropsonde called Streamsonde will be deployed to develop tropical cyclonesCollect multiple real-time observations to collect valuable wind data.
- The CHAOS (Coordinated Atmosphere-Ocean Sampling During Storms) research experiment aims to improve understanding of air-sea interactions, providing sustained monitoring of important ocean features .
Introducing NOAA’s seasonal outlook
NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. In addition to seasonal Atlantic forecasts, NOAA also provides seasonal hurricane forecasts for Eastern Pacific, Central Pacific and the northwest Pacific storm basins.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will update its 2024 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, ahead of the season’s historic peak.
Climate, weather and water affect all life on our ocean planet. NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict our changing environment, from the deep sea to outer space, and to manage and conserve America’s coastal and marine resources.
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