Another week of the 2021 NFL season has passed and with it another banner week for the underdogs. After scoring 10-4 to the odds in Week 9, the lower division beat ATS 9-5 in Week 10. This includes a number of results that were among the surprising. most natural of the season.
The Buccaneers lost the favorites by 9.5 points to the Washington team that had previously won two games. The Ravens, favored over a loss, scored just 10 points as they were dominated by the Dolphins defense in “Thursday Night Football”. The Panthers beat PJ Walker and Cam Newton to beat the Packers by 24 points, and for the second week in a row, the Rams were annihilated in prime time, this time by the 49ers.
In any normal NFL season, bettors can look at these results and outright win the underdogs and send them off to a weird week. However, these types of results have become commonplace in 2021, so savvy gamblers will research the latest NFL odds, trends, and spread in an effort to find value. and potentially the next nasty thing.
There are a few double-digit favorites this week, at least among the opening lines. The Buccaneers are 11 more favorites than the Giants, the Titans are expected to beat the Texans by at least 10.5, and the Browns are expected to recover, as they are 10 points more favored than the Texans. Lion.
Could one of these teams be the next two-digit favorite? That’s unlikely, but that’s what most bettors have said every time this season. And every week, a new sadness seems to join the ensemble of surprises from this crazy season.
For more expert NFL predictions, check out Sporting News picks straight and against the contagion for Week 11.
WEEK 11 NFL PICKS: Fight the contagion | Straight
NFL Odds for Week 11
Here are the latest NFL Week 10 odds, including point spread, paylines and totals for every game, according to FanDuel Sportsbook .
Last Updated: Wednesday, November 17
NFL Week 11 Score Spread
| Game | Transmitted |
| New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons | NE -7 |
| Detroit Lions at the Cleveland Browns | CLE -10 |
| San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars | SF -6.5 |
| Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills | BUF -7.5 |
| Miami Dolphins at New York Jets | MIA -3 |
| Washington football team at Carolina Panthers | CAR -3.5 |
| Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears | BAL -6 |
| New Orleans Saints at the Philadelphia Eagles | PH -1.5 |
| Houston Texans at the Tennessee Titans | TEN -10.5 |
| Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings | GB -2.5 |
| Cincinnati Bengals at Las Vegas Raiders | CIN -1 |
| The Arizona Cardinals at the Seattle Seahawks | ARI -2.5 |
| Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs | KC -2.5 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers | LAC -5.5 |
| New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | TB -11 |
NFL Cash Flow Week 11
| Game | Cash flow |
| New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons | NE -295 |
| Detroit Lions at the Cleveland Browns | CLE -480 |
| San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars | SF -275 |
| Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills | BUF -330 |
| Miami Dolphins at New York Jets | MIA -176 |
| Washington football team at Carolina Panthers | CAR -180 |
| Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears | BAL -255 |
| New Orleans Saints at the Philadelphia Eagles | PH -120 |
| Houston Texans at the Tennessee Titans | TEN -500 |
| Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings | GB -144 |
| Cincinnati Bengals at Las Vegas Raiders | CIN -110 |
| The Arizona Cardinals at the Seattle Seahawks | ARI -134 |
| Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs | KC -142 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers | LAC -245 |
| New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | TB -550 |
NFL over and under Week 11
| Game | On lower |
| New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons | 47.5 |
| Detroit Lions at the Cleveland Browns | 44.5 |
| San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars | 45.5 |
| Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills | 50 |
| Miami Dolphins at New York Jets | 45 |
| Washington football team at Carolina Panthers | 43 |
| Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears | 45.5 |
| New Orleans Saints at the Philadelphia Eagles | 43.5 |
| Houston Texans at the Tennessee Titans | 44.5 |
| Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings | 49 |
| Cincinnati Bengals at Las Vegas Raiders | 50 |
| The Arizona Cardinals at the Seattle Seahawks | 49 |
| Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs | 56 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers | 47 |
| New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 49.5 |
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NFL’s best bets for Week 11
Seahawks (+2.5) vs Cardinals
Fast forward to the beginning of the season by one minute. Can you imagine how you would react if the Seahawks were nearly beaten at home before the season even started? Obviously, the Cardinals were better than expected, but it wasn’t like the Seahawks were much worse than many thought.
Sure, Seattle’s record isn’t pretty. They are sitting at 3-6 for the season and have just been closed by the Packers. That said, before Russell Wilson’s finger injury in Week 5, they had a 2-2 record. So when Wilson was on the field – and healthy – the whole team was solid.
I know what you’re thinking. But Wilson is not in health now… right? Well, Wilson returned from his finger injury two weeks before the minimum scheduled return deadline, so he may not be completely healthy. That means he’ll be fitter ahead of Seattle’s Week 11 game. It also helps his reasoning that he won’t be playing in cold weather like the ones he faced in Green Bay on Sunday, when small patches of snow started to fall late in the game.
So the situation is better for Wilson. He’s also playing at home – where the Seahawks have one of the NFL’s best home-field advantages – and he has excelled in his career against a near-lost disparity. Since Wilson entered the tournament in 2012, Seattle has had a 32-14-3 record against the draw. That’s a coverage ratio of 69.6, and is good for the best score in the NFL for that time period.
And Wilson himself also took a 36-10 lead after a loss. So he wins 78.3% of the time not loses. All he has to do is win here to cover, so we like these odds.
Add to that the fact that Kyler Murray still has many doubts for this game and Seattle has allowed an average of 15 points per game since rookie full-back Tre Brown joined the squad, and Seattle looks to be one of the few. Hottest team of the week.
Reaching +3 would be a great thing, but you can still bet this game without it, especially if Colt McCoy starts. Because with all due respect to McCoy, there’s absolutely no way he should be favored on the streets of Seattle.
Giants (+11) at Buccaneers
The Buccaneers team led by Tom Brady is taking on the Giants. It must have been an easy win for Tampa Bay, right? After all, Brady’s record against the Giants isn’t nearly as bad as most people think it is. Many people remember his two Super Bowl losses at the hands of Eli Manning, but Brady was actually 5-1 in the regular season of his career against the Giants.
So why should you choose Giants to cover in this position? It’s simple, really. They tend to trouble Brady and keep the games tight.
In eight games with the Giants, Brady has only won double-digits twice. He won 11 in 2003 and crushed Daniel Jones in his rookie season with 21. But more often than not, Brady wouldn’t be able to get a double-digit score against the Giants.
| Year | Result |
| 2003 | W, 17-6 |
| 2007 | W, 38-35 |
| 2008 | L, 17-14 |
| 2011 | L, 24-20 |
| 2012 | L, 21-17 |
| 2015 | W, 27-26 |
| 2019 | W, 35-14 |
| Year 2020 | W, 25-23 |
The Buccaneers are better than the Giants in terms of personnel, but they have also struggled to cover the disparity in recent weeks. They have only 3-6 ATS so far this season and have been particularly lousy since Rob Gronkowski picked up an injury against the Rams. They are only 2-5 ATS since Gronkowski’s injury. He has Week 11 issues, so his injury will be one of the things to watch.
Meanwhile, The Giants will say goodbye for a week and possibly get Saquon Barkley healthy again. That might not matter under normal circumstances against Tampa Bay’s solid, second-ranked defense at 79.8 yards per game, but Vita Vea is facing an injury. Trade MCL. Vea is ranked as the 14th best defensive player in football, according to PFF, and is a great running tool. Tampa Bay will miss him if he can’t play.
Between Vea’s absence and the Giants’ receivers getting healthier by bye and head to head with a weak team, this seems like a good opportunity for the Giants to have a chance. They won’t win outright, but don’t be surprised if this is a three- or four-point game as it’s regularly under Brady’s watch.
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Saints (+1.5) at Eagles
That’s right. None of our favorite picks this week are favorites. We are riding on a wave of weakness! That, of course, makes us victims of any potential retracement to averages involving the weaker team compared to the favorites, but it’s a risk we simply take. will have to accept.
The Saints-Eagles game may not sound like an attractive bet on paper. It’s pretty close to a spread option, but it has to be? That is a big question.
The Saints are definitely not jugglers like they were when Drew Brees was still playing (and playing at a high level) a few years ago. However, they have a capable team, and they are a strong, all-round squad with a strong attack and Alvin Kamara attacking. And in defence, they had a great defense and one of the best full-backs of the game at Marshon Lattimore.
The defensive side of the ball is why we like the Saints here. Eagles have been running like crazy for the past four weeks. They average 190.3 yards / game while passing only 166m / game. That’s part of the reason why they’ve played well and been competitive in the last four games. They only drew a straight 2-2 and countered the disparity in that period, but they nearly beat the Chargers in a closely contested game.
All that said, when the Eagles run the ball, they have a higher chance of winning. In the games where they ran the ball 135 yards or less, they had a 1-4 record during the season. When running over 135 yards, they have a 3-2 record.
Why is this so important? The Saints have the NFL’s #1 running defense and allow for 72.9 yards per game. They have allowed over 100 dashes just once throughout the season. That happened to Washington in Week 5, when six different players registered a take for Washington.
If the Eagles can’t break 100 yards, they’ll have a hard time winning here. Jalen Hurts has been throwing very well lately, but if the Eagles are rendered one-way, that might put a bit of pressure on him.
It should also be noted that the Saints lost their favorites in the first game of Hurts’ career last season. You’d better believe Sean Payton had revenge in his mind, especially given the impending big and hard loss to the Titans.
