There are concerns about clouds blocking the sun during next Monday’s total solar eclipse.
What’s interesting is that it turns out Problems with observing such eclipses are increasing as the earth warms due to increasing levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.
A recent study in the Journal of Climatic Statistics by Professor Wade Rocston of Western Eastern University of New Brunswick documented a significant (23%) increase in the tendency for solar eclipses to be obscured by clouds.
According to Professor Rocston, the origin of the increasing cloud cover is clear. Increased CO2 levels lead to global warming. Such warming leads to more evaporation and the humidity of the air increases with temperature (see below). This leads to more clouds and thus more obscuration of the eclipse.
The humidity of the air increases with temperature, leading to more clouds
To give you some perspective on the issue, the first study documenting increased cloud numbers in a warming world was found in a 1986 paper by A. Henderson-Sellers:
This groundbreaking study found increased spring clouds across Texas and the rest of the eclipse path (see below, diagonal silhouettes indicate increasing clouds):
According to the ICCC, the International Panel on Climate Change, which includes leading climate scientists around the world, solar eclipses have become 24% less visible due to increased clouds linked to climate change. Queen. Their analysis shows that if CO2 concentrations remain at current levels, the associated warming and increased cloudiness will cause nearly 46% of all solar eclipse events to be obscured by clouds by the end of the century.
Not being able to see a total solar eclipse is one of the lesser-known effects of global warming, but it is one A real loss for astronomers and the rest of us. I look forward to a detailed discussion of this unfortunate situation in a future article by Seattle Times ClimateLab reporters.
Finally, happy April 1st.
