By Robert Bradley Jr. – February 22, 2022
“Net zero emissions commitments by many countries, including China and India, will mean a lot for coal – but these commitments are yet to be reflected in the short-term forecast.” ours, reflects the huge gap between ambition and action.” (International Energy Agency, below)
The father of energy economics was officially back in 1865. “In fact, coal does not stand next to but completely above all other commodities.” Written William Stanley Jevons:
It is the physical energy of the country – the source of global aid – that is at the heart of everything we do. With coal almost any feat can be done or easily; without it, we are thrown back to the working poverty of our prime.
Another writer of the day more:
For us, coal is everything. Without coal, our factories would be idle, our foundries and workshops like graves; locomotives will rust in the barn, and the tracks will be buried in weeds. Our streets will be dark, our homes uninhabitable. Our rivers will forget the wheel of the oars, and we will again be divided by France day by day, month by month against the United States.
The coal boom has long been an ‘open secret’. Somini Sengupta wrote in the New York Times in 2018 (The world needs to get rid of coal. Why is it so difficult? November 24, 2018):
Home to half of the world’s population, Asia accounts for three-quarters of today’s global coal consumption. More importantly, it accounts for more than three-quarters of coal plants under construction or in the planning stages – a whopping 1,200 of them…”.
But the boom has spoiled the story of the fossil fuel-fueled world. In fact, it dismissed it, and smothered the idea that the United States (with 15% of global GHG emissions) could influence the climate with the Green New Deal.
Back to the present. The return of coal was recently documented in an International Energy Agency (IEA) press release, “Coal’s strong rebound is taking it to a new record in 2021, threatening to not score. “I reprinted the whole thing.
A rapid economic recovery is driving global coal power production to record levels this year and overall coal demand to reach an all-time high as soon as 2022, underscoring the urgent need for action. policy
The amount of electricity generated worldwide from coal is growing to a new annual record in 2021, undermining efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and potentially driving demand, the International Energy Agency says. global coal demand to an all-time high next year, the International Energy Agency said. annual market report.
After falling in 2019 and 2020, global electricity generation from coal is expected to grow 9% in 2021 to an all-time high of 10,350 terawatt-hours, according to the IEA’s Coal in 2021 report, was released today.
The recovery is being fueled by a rapid economic recovery this year, which has boosted electricity demand much faster than low-carbon supplies can keep up. The sharp rise in natural gas prices has also increased demand for coal-fired power by making it more cost-competitive.
Overall worldwide demand for coal – including uses outside of power generation, such as cement and steel production – is forecast to grow by 6% in 2021. That increase will not exceed Record overshoots were reached in 2013 and 2014. However, depending on weather patterns and economic growth, overall coal demand could hit a new all-time high as soon as 2022 and sustain it. at that level for the next two years, underscoring the need for swift and vigorous policy action.
The IEA director said: “Coal is the largest source of carbon emissions globally and this year’s historically high levels of coal power generation are a worrying sign of how the world is heading in the wrong direction. force to reduce emissions to net zero”. Directed by Fatih Birol. “Without strong and immediate actions by governments to tackle coal emissions – in a way that is fair, affordable and safe for those affected – we will have very little opportunity, if any, to limit global warming to 1.5°C”.
In China, where more than half of global coal-fired power generation takes place, coal power is expected to grow 9% in 2021 despite decelerating later this year. In India, it is forecast to grow by 12%. This will set a new all-time high in both countries, even if they roll out impressive amount solar and wind energy.
Although coal power generation is expected to grow by nearly 20% this year in the United States and the European Union, that is still not enough to surpass 2019 levels. This is expected to decline again next year amid slow growth in electricity demand and rapid expansion of renewables.
“Net zero emissions commitments by many countries, including China and India, will mean a lot for coal – but these commitments are yet to appear in the short-term forecast of us, reflects the huge gap between ambition and action,” said Keisuke Sadamori, Director of Energy and Security Markets at the IEA. “Asia dominates the global coal market, with China and India accounting for two-thirds of the overall demand. These two economies – dependent on coal and with a combined population of nearly 3 billion – hold the key to future coal demand.”
The report shows that in 2020, global coal demand will fall 4.4%, the largest drop in decades but much smaller than the annual decline originally predicted at the height of the waves. shut down early during the pandemic. The disparity between regions is large. Coal demand grew 1 percent year-on-year in China, where the economy started to recover much earlier than elsewhere, while it fell nearly 20 percent in the United States and the European Union, and eight percent in the United States. India and South Africa.
Coal prices have risen sharply in the past two years. After dropping to $50/mt in Q2 2020, they started to pick up later in the year, with supply cuts balancing the market before economic activity recovered and coal demand in China kicked in. push the price up.
In 2021, prices have increased further as demand outstrips supply in China – the country that determines global coal prices – as well as supply disruptions and higher global prices of natural gas. Coal prices hit an all-time high in early October 2021, for example imported thermal coal in Europe, touching $298/ton. The Chinese government’s rapid policy intervention to balance the market had a rapid effect on prices. As of mid-December, European prices were back below $150/ton.
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The climate debate is over except for all the shouting, politics, and business rent-seeking. It is now possible to properly measure the size of climate change exaggerations as the world is overcoming the “not-pure” illusion. COP27will be held in Egypt next November, is having great difficulty in this regard.
Climate optimists say: raise the next 1.5°C and watch the world rich in adaptive and prosperous energy.
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