When the murder rate spiked three years ago, experts feared that America was slipping into a period of violence reminiscent of the period between the 1970s and 1990s. But this year’s data offers hope that the rise The increase is only temporary.
Murder this year fell more than 12 percent in major cities (where recent data are most reliable), after also falling slightly last year. The homicide rate is still about 10% higher than it was in 2019, but at least the trend is moving in the right direction.
The drop is a sign that at least two of the problems that likely contributed to the increase in homicides — Covid and the aftermath of the killing of George Floyd — are settling down. Much of life has returned to normal after a highly unusual 2020, so crime trends are starting to return as well.
Policy also seems to play a role, as cities have moved to hire more police and adopt new anti-violence strategies. Combined, these forces have created the possibility that 2023 will bring one of the steepest drop in homicides since the United States began keeping national statistics more than 60 years ago.
Explanation of the drop
Let’s look at three explanations — the deaths of Covid, Floyd, and policy changes — one by one, starting with the pandemic.
Among the many aspects of life that Covid supports are social services that keep people out of trouble, such as police, schools, workplaces and addiction treatment. Since those services are back up and running, so is their potential protective effect.
Some experts doubt Covid’s explanation because other countries have not seen large increases in homicide rates during the pandemic. But Americans have far more guns than their peers around the world, which could put them at greater risk of violence as much of society is turned upside down.
Second explanation: Much time has passed since Floyd’s death at the hands of police in 2020 that has strained relations between law enforcement and their communities.
How does this stress contribute to crime? After the famous murders, some officers withdrew from active operations to keep everyone safe. The public became more reluctant to work with the police. And with less faith in the justice system, some Americans instead use violence to resolve conflicts.
These patterns have happened before. From 2014 to 2016, homicides also increased after police made public the Black murder in Ferguson, Mo.; Baltimore; and other places. This year, Memphis is one of the few major cities to see an increase in homicides — and Memphis is also where officers were accused of beating and killing Tire Nichols in January. In most cities, however, this dynamic appears to have diminished since 2020.
A third explanation for the drop in homicides is government policy: Many places have recently invested more in police and other anti-violence programs. Cities have used Covid relief money to bolster their law enforcement ranks, and some cities have received federal dollars for community-led efforts to dismantle the violence. In Baltimore, a new strategy to focus police and other resources on people with a history of violence seems to be paying offas the Baltimore Banner reported.
What we don’t know
Experts warn that these three explanations are unproven. And maybe the rest of the year will be more intense than the first half. “I think it’s a little early to draw any firm conclusions about what it means,” Jeff Asher, a crime analyst who tracks homicide data in major cities, told me.
Uncertainty is typical in discussions of crime. Starting in the 1990s, the crime rate plummeted. However, decades later, after much research, there is no consensus as to why the violence subsided. Crime is an extremely complex topic, involving individual disputes, the economy, social services, the political system, etc. A few decades, less than a few years, is often too little time. time to explain a trend unequivocally.
However, we do know that homicides in major cities have decreased since last year. As a result of that decline, hundreds of Americans’ lives are being taken away every month.
A note for readers: David Leonhardt is off this week.
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