Mr. 5,000? Why Stephen Curry’s 3-point record will be the NBA’s next unbreakable record

Put a legend to bed right from the jump: not all records are made to be broken.

Where in point? NBA.

When I say “Wilt,” you say “100,” and I say “that’s not even his silliest record.”

• Wilt Chamberlain once averaged 48.5 minutes per game… in a tournament with 48 game minutes.
• Walt Bellamy played 88 regular season games… in an 82-game season.
• AC Green had played in 1,192 consecutive games… in an unmanaged league.
• Rasheed Wallace once had 41 goals in a season … in a tournament where players are now suspended after receiving 16.

When Stephen Curry edged Ray Allen by 3 seconds the most in NBA history with absolutely no signs of slowing down anytime soon, it’s fair to wonder if his final total will be forever etched. in the record books or not. Let’s break it down by looking at where he is, projecting his career forward and then figuring out exactly what it takes to catch him.

CURRY MAKE HISTORY: The making of the greatest 3-point shooter in NBA history

Stephen Curry’s career 3-point prediction

There is no perfect science for predicting the future, and I don’t have a fancy algorithm for predicting health, alliance-wide evolution, or future rule changes. All we can do is continue based on the information available right now and hold ourselves to reasonable expectations.

That means risking neither too high nor too low. When I say “best case scenario”, that doesn’t mean Curry sets a new record every year and plays until he’s 44. Is it possible? Look at Tom Brady. But we are cultivating expectations to stay rational, if not overly optimistic.

Likewise, the “worst case scenario” gets pretty dark, so we’ll rule out any serious injuries or personal incidents that could derail a career. Can it happen? Take a look at Tiger Woods. But again, we are charting a way forward with reason and without any relative pessimism about the end of the world.

Here are three plausible scenarios to consider.

Scenario 1: Absolute best case ceiling

At his current pace, Curry will finish this season with 3,242 times 3 points.

This is also the fourth season, the two-time MVP scoring an average of at least five 3-shots per game. No other player in NBA history has done it even once.

So let’s start there. Imagine that for the next five seasons after that, he continued to hit 5.0 per game. Since he only played 80 games twice in 13 years, let’s allow five games to be missed each year during that period.

That’s exactly 400 a year, bringing us to 5,242 at the end of the 2026-27 season when he’s 38.

While the greatest shooter in NBA history must have aged well, even Father Time will eventually make his way to the top scorer table. Can he play until the age of 43? Vince Carter did it. Even if Curry is still there in 2032, he’s more likely to camp in corners 25 minutes a night than to dance around defenders with the ball on the rope. Let’s reduce him to 3.0 triples a night for 65 game seasons, plus another 975.

5.242 + 975 = 6,217.

Math. It’s fun isn’t it!

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Scenario 2: Actual worst-case scenario

Again, we’re eliminating career-ending injuries or events entirely. However, it should be taken into account that Curry is not an AC Green level ironman either. While he famously overcame some brittle ankles early in his career, it’s fair to wonder how Curry will hold up with his history and light frame.

With that said, it’s almost unbelievable that Curry would suddenly fall from a superstar level. All things being equal, give him two more seasons beyond this one averaging 4.2 goals per game (same amount he hit in 2017-18) and playing 65 games . That brings us to 3,788 during his 15th season.

Curry has four years left on his current contract after it would take him to 17 seasons, one less than both Ray Allen and Reggie Miller. For the sake of argument, let’s assume that in the last two years of his contract – during which the Warriors will pay him a staggering $55.7 million and $59.6 million – Curry dropped to 3.0 per game while missing 30 games per season.

Calling it a career after the 17th season under this scenario, Curry still finished with 4,100 goals.

Scenario 3: Reasonable best guess

Naturally, the best guess lies somewhere in between.

Take a look at the end of Curry’s career in the three periods after 2021-22. Again, we assume that Curry maintains his current pace for the rest of this season and use that as our opening benchmark.

• All-Star: Four more seasons. 4.5 times per game. 72 games.
• Good start: Two more seasons. 3.2 times per game. 60 games.
• Torchbearers Dirk and D-Wade: Two more seasons. 1.7 times per game. 50 games.

This trajectory allows Curry’s career arc to naturally relax while respecting his game’s ability to age gracefully. It’s not hard to imagine Curry taking on a similar role to Dirk Nowitzki in Dallas or Dwyane Wade in Miami, two legends who have managed to usher in the next era for the series they’ve defined over the course of two decades.

THAN: Ranked 11 best 3-point shooter games of all time

Under this scenario, Curry broke 5,000 career steps, an unpredictable number and 2,000 more than Allen’s previous figure.

Who can challenge Stephen Curry?

When Miller retired, Allen was the obvious successor.

When Allen retired, Curry was marked as next.

Who will challenge him to 5,000 potential whenever he decides to hang it up? There is no clear answer.

Just look at active leaders. No one on that list gets to touch Curry, who continues to leave everyone in his dust.

Any potential challenger is either just starting out, hasn’t joined the NBA, or hasn’t been born yet. Here’s a very quick run through the top challenges:

Luka Doncic was the fastest number ever out of 500 who made 3s both in age and game. At 22, he could hover around 30 points per game for the next 15 years. That said… he has yet to average 3.0 per game over four seasons and is actually currently earning less than in his second season. An incredible scorer, Doncic is not a loud enough shooter.

Trae Young take and create a lot of them. No player in NBA history, including Curry, has hit more 3s in 230 career games. Despite the fact that Robert Covington hit 3 seconds more than Curry through the same benchmark, that doesn’t exactly suggest that trustworthiness carries any real meaning.

Donovan Mitchell, not Young, might be Curry’s closest rival in terms of pull-up from downtown. This is the second year in a row he’s boxed over three berries per game and has increased his 3-point-per-season rate over the first five seasons. He entered the tournament at the same age as Curry and 2.7 3s per game in his career was exactly like Curry’s for 5 years. How much more will he be able to raise?

Devin Booker, like Doncic, could lead the NBA in scoring for years to come, but more throwback games depend on mid-range jumpers rather than long-range bombers.

THAN: Kareem weighs in on LeBron’s pursuit of all-time goalscoring record

Truth be told, the answer is most likely no one at all.

5,000 is a big, BIG number.

To catch Curry, it takes a player to play at least four games over 15 consecutive seasons. Every other player in NBA history without the name Stephen Curry has combined to do it a total of 5 times. Four times, the king of 3 points can only get 5 goals per game, a feat that no player has done even once.

THAN: All of Steph Curry’s 3-point record

The knee-jerk reaction is that eventually someone will come along. That of the millions of kids filming in driveways, parks, and gyms right now, at least one will tap into this new era ushered in by Curry himself.

But while it’s easy to assume players and teams will continue to let it fly more and more often, the year-over-year increase in 3-point efforts is has started to decrease, signaling that we’re probably nearing the point where the math will no longer simply say “fire 3 more seconds”.

The reality is that Curry is playing a completely different game than everyone else. Result?

The NBA’s next unbreakable record.