When it comes to straight-line races at Ascot Racecourse, everyone agrees that track form is crucial. So maybe June 15 Duke of Cambridge Staking (G2) is an open and closed case: it will be Mother Earth .
Of the eight runners in the lineup, Mother Earth is the only horse to have scored a Race Rating in excess of 100 on a straight run at Ascot. That sets the standard.
Her only run on a straight mile at this course resulted in a 3 3/4 length finish Baaeed in Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (G1) last year, and she was awarded 115 RPR.
That’s better than any other horse has managed to achieve at any racetrack, Saffron Beach’s 118 bar at Newmarket last year, but Saffron Beach there is a five pound penalty for that group 1 success.
Mother Earth is therefore in the right configuration. One mile is her ride, she has best overall form at weights, best form on the course, and is coached by Aidan O’Brien and ridden by Ryan Moore. They’ve partnered with almost twice as many Royal Ascot winners than any other coach and racing combination this century. Surely others might not show up as well?
If racing were as simple as that, the bookies wouldn’t exist, and if something seemed too good to be true, it could be too good to be true. That’s the adage I adhere to, and relationships clearly don’t see this as a penalty for Mother Earth because they’ve now matched free kicks for the first time.
As O’Brien reached for the sheepskin, alarm bells rang in my head, because his record for adding that headgear was just right. Since the start of 2017, he has only had six winners out of 65 first time runners (9%) assisted.
That 9% strike rate was less than half his total strike rate (19%) in Great Britain and Ireland at the time, and his horses improved for their first experience of headgear. His record with the horses in second stints is much better at 9 to 31 (29%; +25.37 pounds to £1).
If that’s not enough of a deterrent to you, then look to the opposition. Yes, Mother Earth is the only horse with any form of running, but six of the remaining seven have yet to run in Ascot’s straight, and how do we know they won’t at least be no good, if do not want to say is better?
Take for example Saffron Beach. She hasn’t run here yet, but her male New Bay descendants seem to love Ascot’s straight line. Males are 4 for 10 on the course and two of the winners have come on this mile trip, including a Royal Ascot winner—Perotto in Britannia last year.
So when the expert on TV tells you the form of the course is important and Saffron Beach doesn’t, sit back and relax in the safety of knowing that racing is much more complicated.
‘We know she’s in good training’
Saffron Beach lifted coach Jane Chapple-Hyam last season to levels she wasn’t familiar with, finishing second in the Two Thousand Guineas (G1) at Newmarket and returning to the same course in the fall to land the wheel. first group of 1 in the Kingdom of Shares Bahrain Sun Chariot (G1).
Saffron Beach runs on Sun Chariot Stakes in Newmarket
The 4-year-old returned with another outstanding performance in the Dubai Turf sponsored by DP World (G1) as he finished fourth behind the leaders Panthalassa and Lord North her connection win £185,185.19, £10,000 more than the amount won in the Duke of Cambridge on 15 June.
However, Royal Ascot’s prestige means it will always be on Saffron Beach’s schedule this season, with Chapple-Hyam looking to add to her sole success at the meeting, when Judgmentthemoment won the 2009 Ascot Stakes.
Runners in the colors of James Wigan, Ollie Sangster and Ben Sangster, Chapple-Hyam’s step-brother, who said: “We know she’s training well and has a good match for the race, which is what positive along with the ground. She is a very talented person and Jane is pleased with what she has done, so you would expect that she will be very competitive in this race.”
Mother Earth will cross swords for the fourth time with Saffron Beach as the two line up at Royal Ascot. Motherland captures QIPCO One Thousand Guineas (G1), with Saffron Beach coming in second. Saffron Beach reversed that ending in Sun Chariot Stakes (G1). Mother Earth came in second in the Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes (G1), with Saffron Beach in 11th last summer in Newmarket.
O’Brien picked up a set of on-court effects after she finished the pitch at Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes (G1) last time, and said: “Things didn’t happen to her in Lockinge. It opened up too. early for her and it was not appropriate. She is a docile, protective person and that’s why we decided to give her a makeover. We decided to come here instead of Female. Queen Anne, and we’ve been very happy with her since Newbury.”
