By Edward Egros
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst
Last time Los Angeles Dodgers didn’t make post-production the year of “Gangnam Style”, “The Walking Dead”, and the good ending of the Twilight Saga (as someone who had listened to “Team Edward” so often around that time, it was pitiful indeed. ).
The year was 2012, and even by the end of that season enough baseball fans had noticed the ascent of Matt Kemp, Adrian Gonzalez and others, where the Dodgers became one of the favorites. enjoyed winning the 2013 National League pennant. In the nine seasons since, LA never had longer than 12-1 odds in the pre-season to win the World Series, however, they’ve only finished as World Champions once.
Currently, the Dodgers are significant contenders to win their division (-227 per FOX . bet), which has the shortest odds to win the pennant (+215) and is a significant favorite to win the World Series (+450). But, one question no one is asking right now is: With the lack of championships, is betting on LA now to win all of the above worth it?
First, the following season of Major League Baseball is more random than the other four major professional sports. As NFL football and data analytics director Michael Lopez wrote, post-season MLB results are much closer to a coin flip than they are pre-determined, based on the strengths seen in the regular season. About 60% of the time, the better team wins the “best-7” series and in the “best-5” series or knockouts those probabilities will come close to that coin flip is 50%.
In a previous post, I explained how the expected batting average (xBA) can better gauge a team’s current and future offensive success than basic cell score statistics. We can use the ball club’s xBA and the opponent’s xBA to determine who might have a retracement (positive or negative) by taking the difference between xBA and the batting average (BA). Unfortunately, since the Statcast data only stretches back to 2015, not every Dodgers post during this run can be analyzed.
In 2021, at the end of the regular season, the National League football club with the highest xBA – BA difference – suggesting they are due to positive regression – is the eventual champion Atlanta Braves. In part, the Dodgers’ difference in that same metric ranks in the middle of MLB because of injury, which includes the likes of Cody Bellinger and Corey Seager.
In 2020, the only season in the Statcast era when Boys in Blue won it all, LA was second in xBA and sixth in xBA – BA difference. Prior to 2020, the Dodgers had never come close to the top of the MLB leaderboard in xBA, and beyond 2016, when they finished second, they have never been one of the larger contenders for a positive retracement. .
As for pitching and defense, what exactly did the Dodgers allow in terms of expected batting averages? To those who cross the fence like Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler, Big Blue has been more successful with Statcast in this area. From 2015-17, the Dodgers finished first in the rival xBA, second in 2018 and 2019, fourth in 2020 as they won it all and finished first last season. Pitching has never been an issue for this team, as they don’t get enough quality contact with the best pitchers still playing.
Currently, the Dodgers are eighth in xBA in majors (0.261), 20th in xBA – BA difference (0.012), first in competitor xBA (0.025) and 12th in competitor xBA – BA difference (0.012). These differences suggest that while LA is off to a great start, recessions can be everywhere.
However, I believe this setback won’t be big enough for the Dodgers to miss the post-season and probably not enough to miss another league crown.
Another way to determine whether a regression is positive or negative is with Pythagorean winning percentage. This formula takes the number of runs scored and the allowed runs and converts it to a win percentage to show how many wins a football club “should have”. The difference between the actual profile and the Pittago profile can also predict future success. The boys in blue are currently on a -2 win difference, meaning they have to be two more wins than their record. This score is also the 9th lowest in the majors. LA fans can thank Freddie Freeman for a consistent start or Mookie betting with a multi-homerun game on Tuesday night.
Now, let’s use this information regarding gambling for this season. Even if LA is due to a muted regression, all of their odds are too short to take seriously. It might be better to wait for a drop (if it happens) before plunging into the Dodgers. Meanwhile, my approach to NL West is to take it seriously San Diego Padres with much longer odds (+320 at FOX Betting).
In addition to being near the top of the leaderboard, San Diego will get Fernando Tatis Jr. return, who finished in the top 30 individuals last season in xBA. The Padres don’t have an excellent xBA, but their xBA – BA difference of 0.008 indicates an improvement. They also have a number of top 35 starting pitchers in the xBA allowing: Joe Musgrove (14), Sean Manaea (19th) and Yu Darvish (32nd). At this price, a bet on the Padres is now definitely worth it.
For the Dodgers, volatility could be their biggest rival at the moment, making prices too steep. In other words, take the delivery of the Dodgers now as a compliment.
They’re still really good, like the good Team Edward.
Edward Egros is a sports analytics writer/ broadcaster, a sports betting analyst, a data scientist, and an adjunct professor of statistics at Pepperdine University. These passions led him to becomee a fan of cold beer. Edward previously worked in local television, particularly at the Fox affiliate in Dallas, including the Rangers, Cowboys and high school football. Follow him on BILLIONwiter @EdWithSports.
Get more out of Major League Baseball Follow your favorites to get game info, news, and more.
