By Paul Homewood
h/t Ian Magness
Other Matt McGrath Movies Don’t Know:
Climate change will expand the reach of tropical cyclones, leaving millions more vulnerable to these devastating storms, a new study says.
Currently, these cyclones – aka hurricanes – are mainly confined to tropical regions north and south of the equator.
But the researchers say that rising temperatures will allow these weather phenomena to form in mid-latitudes.
This area includes cities such as New York, Beijing, Boston, and Tokyo.
The Research has been published in the journal Nature Geoscience.
The scientists involved say their work shows that by the end of this century, tornadoes will likely occur over a wider range than they would have been in three million years.
When subtropical cyclone Alpha made landfall in Portugal in September 2020, the relatively small scale of damage caused by the storm went unnoticed.
But for scientists, this is quite an important event.
Dr Studholme, lead author of the new study, predicts that a warming climate will cause more of these types of storms to form in the mid-latitudes, where most of the world’s population lives and where most of the economic activity takes place.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-enosystem-59775105
It’s quite unusual for a subtropical storm to make landfall in Portugal making it impossible for me to know.
But the idea that tropical cyclones have not yet affected places like New York and Tokyo is absurd. If anything, the numbers are actually decreasing.
Between 1950 and 1991, nine hurricanes made landfall in New York State or further north. Since then, the only hit has been Sandy in 2012. (Even the inclusion of Sandy is controversial, as it is officially classified as an extratropical storm when it makes landfall)
For Japan, the mainland experiences an average of three typhoons annually:
About 30 hurricanes form each year in the Pacific Northwest, with an average of 7 or 8 passing storms. Okinawa Prefecture, and about three attacks on the main islands of Japan, especially Kyushu and Shikoku. But any region of Japan, including Tokyo, Osaka and Hokkaido may be visited by storms.
https://www.japan-guide.com/e/e2117.html
And beyond the 2004 record year, they don’t become more frequent:
https://www.nippon.com/en/features/h00256/
Finally, let’s go back to that storm in Portugal. Here is the meteorological coverage at the time:
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-11-04-what-is-a-subtropical-storm
Winds at sea are estimated at 50 mph, dropping to 35 mph over land. This is almost never the case.
Notably the link above from the Weather Channel, which gives a good explanation of the difference between subtropical and other hurricanes, comments:
Subtropical storms were not officially recognized until the beginning of the satellite era, and they were not named until 2002.
The naming of subtropical storms only since 2002 explains why the number of named storms, including hurricanes, seems to have increased.
The NWS also states:
The NHC began naming subtropical storms in 2002. From 1968 to 2001, subtropical storms were simply numbers (“One”, “Two”, etc.). Prior to 1968, subtropical storms were never classified as such, but were sometimes referred to as “Unnamed Storms”. A landmark study by Herbert and Poteat (1975) led to a significant increase in the identification and naming of subtropical cyclones in the late 1970s and early 1980s. However, when Bob Sheets became director of the National Hurricane Center from 1987 to 1995, he stated that subtropical hurricanes should not be recognized, and very few subtropical storms were classified during this period. Before 1968, there were many subtropical systems in the Atlantic that should have been included in the official HURDAT database. I have seen estimates that 5-10 hurricanes were missed during the 1950s, and ten between 1969 and 1999. A reanalysis effort is underway to include these “missed” storms in the database. However, it will take several years before this process is complete.
And as the NWS shows, subtropical storms often form in mid-latitudes.
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-11-04-what-is-a-subtropical-storm
This is no ordinary science junk meant to scare kids. It doesn’t try to use actual data to justify its claims, it’s all based on modeling.
And, naturally, it was trumpeted by the faithful BBC without any attempt to challenge the findings, or even bother to ask hurricane experts for their opinions.
Related
