A home in Rock Creek in June 2022 after floodwaters washed away a road and a bridge in Red Lodge, Mont.
David Goldman/AP
hide captions
switch captions
David Goldman/AP
A home in Rock Creek in June 2022 after floodwaters washed away a road and a bridge in Red Lodge, Mont.
David Goldman/AP
WASHINGTON — After three difficult years, the La Nina weather phenomenon that increased Atlantic hurricane activity and exacerbated drought in the West has disappeared, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said today. Thursday.
That’s usually good news for the United States and other parts of the world, including drought-stricken northeast Africa, scientists say.
Climate scientist Michelle L’Heureux, head of NOAA’s El Nino/La Nina forecasting office, said the globe is currently in what’s considered “neutral” and is likely to trend. El Nino in late summer or fall.
“It’s over,” said research scientist Azhar Ehsan, head of El Nino/La Nina forecasting at Columbia University. “Mother Nature thought to get rid of this so that’s enough.”
La Nina is a natural and temporary cold phenomenon in certain areas of the Pacific Ocean that alters weather worldwide. In the United States, because La Ninas are associated with more Atlantic hurricanes, droughts, and wildfires deeper in the West, La Ninas are often more damaging and costly than their more famous downside. , El Nino, experts say and studies show.
In general, American agriculture is more damaged by La Nina than by El Nino. Michael Ferrari, chief science officer of Climate Alpha, a firm that advises investors on climate-based financial decisions, said if the globe jumped into El Nino, it would mean more More rain for the Midwest corn and grain belt and could be beneficial.
In the presence of La Nina, there will be more hurricanes in the Atlantic during hurricane season because it removes the conditions that prevent storm formation. Neutral or El Niño conditions make it harder for storms to move, but not impossible, scientists say.
According to NOAA economist and meteorologist Adam Smith, over the past three years, the United States has suffered 14 hurricanes and tropical cyclones that have caused $1 billion or more in damage, with a total cost of $252 billion. la. La Nina and those who build in a harmful way are the factors, he said.
Climate change is a major factor making extreme weather worse, scientists say, along with La Nina, and many studies and reports show. According to Northern Illinois University professor of atmospheric sciences Victor Gensini, human-caused warming is like going up an escalator: It makes temperatures rise and extremes worse, while La Nina and El Nino are like jumping up and down an escalator.
La Nina also slightly lowered average global temperatures, the scientists said, keeping warming from breaking annual temperature records, while El Niño slightly increased those temperatures that normally set those records, the scientists say. .
La Nina tends to make West Africa wet, but East Africa, around Somalia, is dry. Ehsan said the opposite happens in El Nino with drought-stricken Somalia likely to have regular “short rains”. According to NOAA, La Nina creates wetter conditions for Indonesia, parts of Australia and the Amazon, but these areas are drier during El Nino.
Ehsan said El Nino means more heatwaves for India and Pakistan as well as other parts of South Asia and weaker monsoons there.
This particular La Nina, which started in September 2020 but is considered three-year-old because it affects three different winters, is unusual and one of the longest ever recorded. It took a brief hiatus in 2021 but has bounced back with record intensity.
“I’m sick of this La Nina,” Ehsan said. L’Heureux agreed, saying she was open to talking about something else.
A few other times, a triple La Nina phenomenon occurs after a strong El Ninos, and there is a clear physical reason why it happens. But that’s not what happened with this La Nina, L’Heureux said. This one doesn’t have a strong El Nino before it.
Although this La Nina has confounded scientists in the past, they say the signs of it’s departure are clear: Water in this critical area of the central Pacific Ocean is slightly warmer than it is. With the threshold of La Nina in February, the atmosphere shows some signs. Along the eastern Pacific Ocean near Peru, El Nino-like warming has formed on the coast, L’Heureux said.
Residents of Red Lodge, Mont., are seen clearing mud, water and debris from the small city’s main street after floodwaters flooded a residential area with hundreds of homes.
Matthew Brown / AP
hide captions
switch captions
Matthew Brown / AP
Residents of Red Lodge, Mont., are seen clearing mud, water and debris from the small city’s main street after floodwaters flooded a residential area with hundreds of homes.
Matthew Brown / AP
Think of La Nina or El Nino as something that pushes the weather system out of the Pacific with ripple effects around the world, says L’Heureux. When there are neutral conditions like now, there will be less thrust from the Pacific. That means other climate factors, including long-term warming trends, have more of an effect on day-to-day weather, she said.
Without El Nino or La Nina, forecasters will have a harder time predicting seasonal weather trends for the summer or fall because the Pacific Ocean has such a large footprint in the drag forecasts. many weeks long.
L’Heureux said El Niño forecasts made in the spring are often less reliable than those made at other times of the year, so scientists are less certain about what’s going on. what will happen next. But NOAA’s forecast says there’s a 60% chance that El Nino will take the throne in the fall.
There is also a 5% chance that La Nina will return with an unprecedented fourth drop. L’Heureux says she really doesn’t want it but the scientist in her will find it amusing.
