Key inflation readings next week to give clues on future Fed rate moves

news7g02/11/2023

14 5 minutes read

Key inflation readings next week to give clues on future Fed rate moves

As this earnings season draws to a close, Wall Street this week focuses on a key measure of retail inflation, which we expect to show even slower gains. The stock market, after a strong start to 2023, has been particularly sensitive to rising bond yields on concerns the Federal Reserve may not be able to pull back on tightening to counter pressure. price increase as expected. Looking ahead January’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), which calculates the average change over time in the prices shoppers pay for goods and services, is expected to be released on Wednesday. Father. We’re looking for smaller rallies – but not too many – to show that the Fed’s rate hike efforts to beat inflation are working. Economists and investors will use this number to gauge the likelihood of a soft landing or a hard landing. The year-on-year CPI in December was 6.5%, marking the smallest 12-month increase since October 2021. This is down from the 7.1% increase in November. Producer price numbers (PPI) for January, which calculates the change in selling prices received by producers of goods and services, will be released on Thursday. PPI does not influence Fed decisions as much as CPI. But PPIs can predict the future direction of the consumer price index because they indicate whether manufacturers need to pass on higher costs to shoppers. Squeezed in midday on Wednesday, January’s retail sales figures are out. Expect a 1.5% monthly gain after a 1.1% drop in December. In addition to the economic data, the market will work its way through the rest of the quarterly earnings report. quarter from Corporate America. The results so far have been better than expected. Of the more than two-thirds of S&P 500 companies that reported, 69% had a positive earnings surprise and 63% had a positive revenue surprise. In the Club, quarterly results from Devon Energy (DVN) are released after the closing bell on Tuesday but the post-earnings conference call won’t happen until the next morning. Dow stock Cisco Systems (CSCO) reported after the bell Wednesday and held a conference call shortly after. As always, our focus is on looking beyond the headline numbers for guidance going forward, as well as any relevant commentary from management on the calls. The CPI number may provide more quantitative data than management comment, but it seems outdated and heavily skewed by housing data as we wrote about a month ago. Management commentary is in real-time and forward-looking. Here are some other earnings reports and economic numbers to watch in the coming week: Monday, February 13 Before the bell: TreeHouse Foods (THS), Teradata (TDC), Monday.com (MNDY), Dingdong (DDL), Check Point Software (CHKP) After the bell: Amkor Tech (AMKR), Arch Capital (ACGL), Arista Networks (ANET), Avis Budget (AVIS), Denny’s (DENN), Eversource Energy (ES), FirstEnergy (FE), IAC (IAC), Palantir (PLTR), SolarEdge Tech (SEDG) Tuesday, February 14 Before the bell: Coca-Cola (KO), Cleveland Cliffs (CLF), Exelon (EXC), Garret Motion (GTX), GlobalFoundries (GFS), Leidos Holdings (LDOS), Marriott International (MAR), Materialize (MTLS), PerkinElmer (PKI), Peabody Energy (BTU), WESCO (WCC), Zoetis (ZTS), Cae (CAE) ) After the bell: AirBnB (ABNB) ), Akamai (AKAM), AMMO (POWW), Andersons (ANDE), Conduent (CNDT), GoDaddy (GDDY), GXO Logistics (GXO), Herbalife (HLF), Nu Holdings ( NU), Suncor Energy (SU), Ternium (TX) 8:30 a.m. ET: Consumer Price Index Wednesday, Feb. 15 Before the bell: Analog Instruments (ADI), Barrick Gold (GOLD), Biogen (BIIB), Cellebrite (CLBT), Fidelity National (FIS), Generac (GNRC), Kraft Heinz (KHC), Krispy Kreme (DNUT), Lithia & Driveway ( LAD), Martin Marietta (MLM), Owens Corning (OC), Ryder Systems (R), Sonic Auto (SAH), Sunoco (SUN), Trade Desk (TTD), Wabtec (WAB) After the Bell: Albemarle (ALB) , Ameren (AEE), American International Group (AIG), American Water Works (AWK), Boston Beer (SAM), Bowlero (BOWL), CF Industries (CF), Community Health (CYH), Energy Transfer (ET), EQT Corp (EQT), Equinix (EQIX), Invitation Homes (INVH), Marathon Oil (MRO), Nutrien (NTR), Resideo Tech (REZI), RingCentral (RNG), Roku (ROKU), Seagen (SGEN), Shopify ( SHOP), Twilio (TWLO), Upwork (UPWK), Zillow (Z) 8:30 a.m. ET: Retail Sales 9:15 a.m. ET: Industrial Production & Capacity Usage Thursday, Feb. Bells: Bloomin’ Brands (BLMN), Cenovus (CVE), Constellation Energy (CEG), Crocs (CROX), Datadog (DDOG), Entergy (ETR), EPAM Systems (EPAM), Hasbro (HAS), Henry Schein (HSIC), Hyatt Hotels (H), KBR (KBR), Kelly Services (KLYA), Lab Corp (LH), Nestle (NSRGY), Paramount (PARA), PBF Energy (PBF), Pool Corp (POOL), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Shake Shack (SHAK), Toast (TOST), Tower Semi (TSEM), Vulcan Materials (VMC), Watsco (WSO), Zevra Tech (ZBRA) After the bell: Agnico -Eagle (AEM), Applied Materials (AMAT), Consolidated Energy (ED), Digital Realty (DLR), DoorDash (DASH), DraftKings (DKNG), Dropbox (DBX), Redfin Corp (RDFN), Texas Roadhouse ( TXRH), Vale (VALE) 8:30 a.m. ET: Initial Claims 8:30 a.m. ET: Groundbreaking for Housing & Building Permits 8:30 a.m. ET: Producer Price Index Friday, Feb. Before the bell: AutoNation (AN), CenterPoint Energy (CNP), Deere & Co (DE) Looking Back Despite a slight gain on Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the week down 0.17%. The S&P 500 lost 1.11% and the Nasdaq lost 2.41% in their worst weeks in 2023. Still, all three stock benchmarks remain positive so far this year, with gains nearly 12% year-to-date of Nasdaq leading the way. The tech-heavy people were hit the hardest during last year’s terrible market. It has been a very mild week on the economic front, with only 196,000 initial jobless claims on Thursday for the week ended February 4, up 13,000 from the previous week and well above the 190,000 mark. expected. All in all, energy was the only sector that gained for the week, with media services leading the decline, followed by consumer discretionary and real estate. The US Dollar Index is hovering just above 103. Gold is trading below $1,900 an ounce. WTI crude oil prices are hovering below $80 a barrel, while 10-year Treasury yields are at around 3.75%. In our portfolio, we received solid quarterly results from engineering and industrial gas giant Linde (LIN); a disappointing quarter from automation company Emerson Electric (EMR) and a great quarter from Disney (DIS) as returning CEO Bob Iger lays out much-needed plans for a company overhaul. (See here for a complete list of stocks in the Jim Cramer Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to CNBC’s Investment Club with Jim Cramer, you’ll receive trading alerts before Jim. conduct transaction. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending the trading notice before buying or selling shares in his charity’s portfolio. If Jim had talked about a stock on CNBC, he would have waited 72 hours after issuing a trading warning before taking a trade. INFORMATION ABOUT THE ABOVE INVESTMENT CLUB IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY, PLUS OUR DISCLAIMER. 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Consumers have felt pinched from higher food prices as inflation soars.

Nathan Stirk | Getty Images News | beautiful pictures

As this earnings season draws to a close, Wall Street this week focuses on a key measure of retail inflation, which we expect to show even slower gains.