It’s time to talk about “Power Factor” – Is there an increase in capacity?

Dr. Lars Schernikau, energy economist and commodities trader, Switzerland/Singapore, https://www.linkedin.com/in/larsschernikau/

It’s time to talk about the “Capability Factor”

In power generation, power factor, utilization and load factor dissimilarity.

There is a lot of confusion in the press and certainly in politics, and even among “energy experts”, about the use of the term “capacity factor”. It can be ignored, as the distinctions made in this paper relate only to the entry of variable “renewable” energy, such as wind and solar, in our energy systems. we.

• The worldwide average solar capacity factor (CF) is around ~11-13%. The best locations in California, Australia, South Africa, Sahara may have over 25%, but are very rare. (to watch www.globalsolaratlas.infodirect normal solar radiation setting)
• The worldwide average natural wind power factor (CF) is around ~21-24%. The best offshore locations in Northern Europe can reach over 40%. Most of Asia and Africa have virtually no usable winds and the average CF will be less than 15%, with the exception of small areas on parts of the coast of South Africa and Vietnam. (to watch www.globalwindatlas.infomedium power density setting)

Natural power factors in Europe tend to be higher for wind power than for solar. Wind power installations in Northern Europe can average above 30% (higher for more expensive offshore, lower onshore), but below 15% in India and less than 8% in Indonesia. On average, and with a focus on averages, annual solar capacity factor is around ~10-11% in Germany, ~17% in Spain, ~25% in California and possibly 14-19% in India, but they reach less than 15% in densely populated areas of Indonesia. Carbajales-Dale et al. 2014 confirm that the power factor of wind is higher than that of solar power; they estimate the global average wind power factor at around 21-24% and solar around 11-13% (see figure above).

The figure below illustrates a two-week period in May 2022 (as I wrote this chapter in our book on power factors), where the average wind power factor was only ~5% for ALL German wind power installations (on and off-shore).

To avoid confusion, I try to use “natural competence” in my writing whenever possible.

• The “”natural power factor (CF)” is the % of the maximum possible output of the “power plant” (coal, gas, nuclear, solar, wind, hydro, etc.), which is achieved under the natural conditions of the site, assuming history of no problems or outages or technology.
• I define”use” is the % of available capacity of the power plant that is used on average during the year, only reduced due to breakdowns or cuts in technology, operation, economy, etc., completely independent of the CF.
• The “”net load factor” – by my definition – then it is the product of natural power factor x usage

Thus, when it comes to the element of natural ability, we only refer to of natural origin ability factor, not technology or operating operations “use” (commonly referred to as uptime, plant load factor, or PLF). In other words, when a technology fails or a power plant is purposefully shut down, this reduces usage, not the natural power factor.

As mentioned, the natural capacity factor is due to the premises and not the solar installation. As such, even a perfect PV material would still need to deal with an average annual natural capacity factor of 10-25%, not to mention other losses from conditioning, transmission, equalization or storage. store highly intermittent power sources (Schernikau and Smith 2021).

The press has repeatedly mentioned that coal or gas has ability factor average 60% or less. This is misleading at best, most likely intentionally wrong for political reasons. However, that number is not a naturally derived capacity factor; that is use decreases as wind and solar energy gain more penetration, and contributes to higher electricity system costs.

The use should never be and cannot be compared with natural potency factors, they are very different. Conventional power plants have a natural capacity factor close to 100%, but their technology and operational usage often drops significantly to less than 90%, not least because of the preference for wind and solar in system. Because of their high CF, net load factor only slightly lower than use for a conventional power plant.

Because wind and solar usage is usually close to 100%, they net load factor usually only slightly lower than them natural ability factor.

Needless to say, the natural power factor of wind and solar (even for hydroelectricity, due to the natural flow of rivers) cannot be predicted or guaranteed for any given time frame. The natural capacity factor can be estimated every year but still varies widely even annually (see Europe 2021) and is very erratic, sometimes for days and weeks approaching 0% for wind and the sun, even in top locations.

Soworldwide natural power factors that are a direct result of the location of wind or solar installations; they do not depend on and cannot be affected by the technology used. The last point is very important… no technological advancement can change the natural availability of wind, sun or river flow and thus affect the natural power factor for an installed system. certain set. Technology CAN and WILL improve the amount of usable electricity you get from natural inputs (wind, solar, river flow, gas, coal, uranium, etc.)… this is called efficiency Conversion rates and their limitations are discussed further below.

Since the easy locations are already “used up,” one might expect the average natural power factors to decrease over time… the opposite of what the Net-Zero plan assumes (see Fundamentals). International Energy Agency (IEA), McKinsey & Company or the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)).

1. For photovoltaic (PV) park, natural capacity factor CF is completely dependent on the intensity and duration of sunlight, affected by seasonality and haze, day and night, and the ability to maintain transparency of the PV panel surface, e.g. dust in the Sahara or snow in winter.
2. The natural power factor of the wind farm depends on the site wind speed distribution and the wind turbine saturation rate. Wind turbine CF is defined as the number of hours per year that the wind farm operates at or above the saturation wind speed (Smith and Schernikau 2022). If the design wind saturation speed is set to low, for example 4-5 m/s, the wind farm generates little power, even for high power factors. Normally, the wind saturation speed is 12-15 m/s.

It is now clear why installed capacity for wind and solar needs to be much larger than the energy that can be sent like nuclear, coal, gas or hydro. This relatively significant increase in energy generation capacity to produce the same available, but unpredictable, energy output is combined with significantly higher raw material and energy inputs for with variable “renewable” energy that must be offset from any fuel savings.

#Germany is a prime example: Total installed electricity capacity has more than doubled in the last 20 years, essentially all including wind and solar (see figure below)

• Wind and solar installed capacity is currently over 125GW, 150% higher than peak electricity demand in Germany around 80GW
• Germany’s conventional installed electricity capacity including coal, gas and nuclear still barely meets peak electricity demand
• With all this additional capacity in Germany, wind and solar account for less than 30% of total electricity production in 2021 and about 5% of total energy consumption.

The low natural power factor of wind and solar installations is – without a doubt – one of the main reasons for low net energy efficiency (https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4000800).

About conversion efficiency

The figure below summarizes the energy conversion efficiency of wind and solar and the laws they obey. Conversion efficiency measures the ratio between the useful output of an energy converter and the input, in terms of energy, after taking into account the power factor.

For more details please see our book”Uncommon Truths… about Electricity and the Future of Energy” (above Amazon)… or www.unpopular-truth.com

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/time-talk-abilities-factors-lars-schernikau