To date, however, U.S. utility companies have not widely deployed current-blocking devices to the direct grid. “They just do things, like switch to higher and higher operating voltages” — for cheaper transmission — “that increase their vulnerability to these storms,” Kappenman told me.
Tom Berger, former director of the US government’s Space Weather Prediction Center, also expressed skepticism towards grid operators. “When I talked to them, they told me they understood space weather and they were ready,” he said. But Berger’s confidence waned after a power grid failure in Texas in February 2021 that killed hundreds, left millions of homes and businesses without heat, and damaged about $200 billion. That crisis was nothing more bizarre than a big icy snap. “We’ve heard the same thing,” Berger said. “’We understand winter; no problem. ‘”
I contacted 12 of the country’s largest utility companies, requesting information on specific steps to be taken to mitigate damage from a major geomagnetic event. American Electric Power, the country’s largest transmission network, is the only one to share specific measures, including regularly upgrading hardware, diverting power during storms, and quickly replacing equipment after the event. Two other companies, Edison and Exelon, claim to have equipped their systems with geomagnetic monitoring sensors and are guiding their operators through unspecified “processes”. Florida Power & Light declined to comment meaningfully, citing a security risk. The remaining eight did not respond to multiple requests for comment.
At this point, curious minds might wonder if utility companies are required to plan for geomagnetic storms. The answer is complicated, in an American way. In 2005, when George W. Bush, a former oil executive, occupied the Oval Office, Congress passed the Energy Policy Act, which contained a series of gifts to the oil and gas industry. It has largely abolished the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s authority to regulate the utility industry. Reliability standards are currently developed and enforced by the North American Electrical Reliability Corporation – a trade association representing the interests of the same companies.
Some people find the NERC reliability standards ridiculous. (Two interviewees laughed out loud when asked about them.) Kappenman objected to the first set of standards, proposed in 2015, on the grounds that they were too lenient — they did not require utilities to standardize. A hurricane equal to 1859 or 1921 Berger also raised the issue, but for a different reason: The standards do not mention storm duration. The terrestrial impacts of the Carrington Incident lasted four or five consecutive days; a transformer built to withstand 10 seconds of current is very different from a transformer ready for 120 hours.
Under pressure from the federal government, NERC issued stricter standards in 2019. In a lengthy written statement, Rachel Sherrard, a spokeswoman for the group, emphasized that utility companies The US is now expected to deal with an event twice as powerful as the 1989 Quebec hurricane. (Comparing that to an older storm like Carrington, she notes, “is challenging because of the measured data.” High-fidelity historical measurement is not available.”) Although the new standards require utilities to repair vulnerabilities in their systems, companies determine for themselves the appropriate approach — and timeline.
If utilities remain idle, humanity’s ability to weather a major geomagnetic storm will largely depend on our ability to replace broken transformers. A 2020 investigation by the US Department of Commerce found that the country imported more than 80% of large transformers and their components. Under normal supply and demand conditions, lead times for these structures can be up to two years. “People outside of the industry don’t understand how difficult these things are to manufacture,” Kappenman said. Insiders know that a transformer should not be purchased unless the factory that manufactured it is at least 10 years old. “It takes a long time to find the twists and turns,” he said. Kappenman notes: In times of solar crisis, foreign governments – even geopolitical allies – can restrict exports of critical electrical equipment. Several widget programs have cropped up over the past decade allowing participants to pool resources in different disaster situations. However, the size and location of these parts are not known to the federal government – because the industry will not tell them.
Someday, regulators might manage to map the grid, even freeze it (as long as a big one doesn’t wipe it out first). Engineers could launch an array of satellites giving us days to knock down the hatches. Governments can find a way to stop emergency transformers in difficult situations. And there the sun will be — the unimaginable, inextinguishable furnace at the center of our solar system, which will destroy as indiscriminately as it created. This tiny earthly life is completely dependent on cosmic nuclear power with itchy trigger fingers. No human victory will ever change that. (But we should still buy capacitors. Soon, please.)
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