Heating Up the Triple Crown Trail

1. Dornoch

The first two spots on the 2024 Kentucky Derby (G1) trail essentially are a photo finish between Remsen Stakes (G2) winner Dornoch  and Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) victor Honor Marie . As much enthusiasm as I have for Honor Marie’s potential, I’m slightly higher on Dornoch’s chances to develop into an elite 3-year-old in 2024. Dornoch has a habit of erratic or, more accurately, immature behavior in his races, specifically losing focus in the stretch. He showed incredible resilience after he was passed (not headed but actually passed) in the Remsen stretch by Sierra Leone  then fought back gamely on the inside to push his nose in front in the closing strides of the 1 1/8-mile test. The fact that he had significant fuel left in the tank after setting the pace through a half-mile in :46.97 really stood out to me as an indicator of quality. He earned a career-best 91 Beyer Speed Figure for the Remsen and a 97 Equibase Speed Figure that was a few ticks off the 101 he earned for a 6 1/2-length maiden romp Oct. 14 at Keeneland. Given the immaturity and Dornoch’s pedigree—he’s a full brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage  —it’s pretty easy to envision a path to success on the 2024 Kentucky Derby trail and beyond.

2. Honor Marie

I don’t typically love one-run, deep closers such as Honor Marie for the Kentucky Derby, but recent history has shown that closers—Country House   (2019), Rich Strike  (2022), and Mage—can win on the first Saturday in May. Likewise, even in years when speed has been potent in terms of determining the winner, closers frequently pass tiring horses in the Churchill stretch to fill out the placings. Honor Marie delivered a breakout race in winning the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes by two lengths Nov. 25 going 1 1/16 miles at Churchill Downs. The bay Honor Code  colt improved his Equibase Speed Figure 11 points to a career-best 101 and boosted his Beyer Speed Figure 13 points to a new top of 92. Trainer D. Whitworth Beckman is a former assistant to Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown, so he’s been around quality Derby candidates and this one is bred for stamina. Sire Honor Code, by 1992 Horse of the Year A.P. Indy, won the 2015 Whitney Stakes (G1) and Honor Marie’s dam, Dame Marie , is a grade 2-placed and a winner at 1 1/8 miles and a close relative of Rule of Law, winner of the 2004 English St. Leger (G1) at 1 3/4 miles. He’s not quite fast enough yet, but with two wins and a second in three starts and a grade 2 victory on the host track of the Derby, there is significant reason for optimism.

3. Nysos

In recent years I did not consider horses from the barn of Bob Baffert because they are ineligible to accrue Derby qualifying points or to compete in the first jewel of the Triple Crown while under his care as part of a ban instituted by Churchill Downs in the wake of Medina Spirit’s disqualification for a medication violation in the 2021 Derby. But we’ve seen in the past two years that if a Derby prospect has demonstrated the ability to compete in marquee races on the road to the Triple Crown, they will be transferred to another trainer (primarily Tim Yakteen in 2022 and 2023) to qualify and compete in the Kentucky Derby. Nysos  looked like that type of highly regarded runner in winning the Bob Hope Stakes (G3) at seven furlongs Nov. 19 at Del Mar. The bay colt by Nyquist   won his debut by 10 1/2 lengths in October at Santa Anita Park and followed with an 8 3/4-length runaway in the Bob Hope, stamping himself as one to watch heading into 2024. Tactical speed is a valuable asset for Nysos, but I’m not as sold on Nysos as a 1 1/4-mile horse based on what I’ve seen from him on the racetrack and his pedigree. I do think the colt by 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist has a solid chance to be successful navigating two turns as there is some stamina on the bottom half of his pedigree, including third dam (maternal great-grandmother) Unbridled Elaine, winner of the 2001 Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1). Like Dornoch and Honor Marie, Nysos will need to improve to be a top Derby candidate in 2024, but you have to like what he’s shown in two starts to date.