Guatemala, Central America’s largest country, will vote Sunday in a presidential election that is under scrutiny for the erosion of the rule of law in a country that has become a major source of migration to the United States.
Guatemala’s fledgling democracy — emerging from the end of a civil war nearly four decades ago that left hundreds of thousands dead or missing, one of the bloodiest civil wars in recent Latin American history — has weakened in recent years under an increasingly authoritarian government.
The judiciary has been weaponized and forced into exile by dozens of prosecutors and judges focused on the fight against corruption. Press freedom has also come under attack, and this month the publisher of a leading newspaper that exposed multiple bribery cases was sentenced to six years in prison after being found guilty of financial crimes.
Electoral authorities in Guatemala, a country of 18 million people, have raised concerns about attacks on democratic rules after it ban some of the top presidential candidates who are seen as a threat to the political and economic establishment.
The growing democratic tensions in Guatemala have left some voters disillusioned and wondering if they should bother voting.
“I don’t think there should even be an election,” said Óscar Guillén, 70, explaining that he intended to leave his ballot blank to express disappointment.
Voters will still choose from a crowded precinct of more than 20 candidates, none of whom are predicted to have a majority on Sunday, which will force a vote on August 20. between the two who finished first.
The flow has been common in Guatemala since 1996 peace accords ended a 36-year-old internal conflict and was marked by brutal counterinsurgency tactics that led to genocide against the natives.
Guatemala’s current president, Alejandro Giammattei, is prohibited by law from running for re-election. But although a sharp rise in violent crime and a steep cost of living have made Mr Giammattei, a conservative, deeply unpopular, the top contenders in the race are generally tilted in favor. conservatives, indicating continuity with the country’s political institutions.
Voting is optional in Guatemala and the abstention rate, close to 40% in the last presidential election, in 2019, will be closely watched as a measure of voter discontent.
Here’s what you need to know about Sunday’s vote.
Who is running?
Of the top three contenders, none are predicted to secure anything close to the majority needed to win outright on Sunday. Across some polls, Sandra Torres, the former first lady, appears to be the front-runner, but with support hovering around 20%. (The presidential candidate from Mr. Giammattei’s party is voting with a low number of votes.)
Ms. Torres, 67, was married to Álvaro Colom, president of Guatemala from 2008 to 2012 and who died this year at the age of 71. They divorced in 2011, when Ms. Torres first ran for president and tried to circumvent a law barring relatives of the president from running.
She was still banned from running that year, but was runner-up in the last two presidential elections. After the 2019 election, she was accused of campaign finance violations and placed under house arrest.
Ms. Torres won that case late last year when a judge ruled there was insufficient evidence to proceed with a trial, allowing her to run for re-election. During the campaign, she was able to garner support from her party, the National Unity of Hope, a prestigious and widely known party in Guatemala.
Ms. Torres, like her two main opponents, has expressed admiration for the government’s crackdown on gangs in neighboring El Salvador, which has helped to reduce violence, but also fuel concerned about human rights violations.
She has also promised to increase cash transfers and food assistance to needy families, building on her time as first lady when she was the face of those popular initiatives. .
Another top competitor, 55-year-old Zury Ríos, is also a familiar figure in Guatemalan politics. She is the daughter of Efraín Ríos Montt, a dictator in the early 1980s. sentenced in 2013 on charges of genocide for attempting to destroy Ixil, a Mayan.
While the evidence against her father was meticulously documented and detailed at his trial, Ms. Ríos was declare repeated that no genocide ever took place. Her ultra-conservative party is led by figures connected to her father.
However, while Ms. Ríos promotes her conservative credentials and evangelical Christian beliefs, she has a more nuanced track record as a former member of Congress as she forges alliances. efforts to win legislative approval for bills to improve conditions for women and LGBTQ people.
Another major presidential candidate is 72-year-old Edmond Mulet, a seasoned lawyer and former diplomat who served as Guatemala’s ambassador to the United States and the European Union and head of the Stabilization Mission. United Nations in Haiti.
While Mr. Mulet highlights his diplomatic experience, he is also known for his work as a lawyer in the 1980s, when he was arrested in connection with his work arranging the adoption of Guatemalan children for foster families. Canadian family.
Although he was quickly released and Mr. Mulet has denied any wrongdoing, he still took time from the campaign to explain his involvement in the episode.
During his campaign, Mr. Mulet is representing a nascent party that has no seats in Parliament, but has forged a competitive coalition of candidates at the national and local levels. in the election on Sunday. His proposals include a universal pension, an increase in police pay and the construction of a new high-security prison.
What are the main problems?
Corruption: Guatemala has won much praise over the past decade for its efforts to limit impunity and bribery. But that initiative, led by an international panel of inquiry backed by the United Nations, has been systematically carried out. dismantling in recent years as entrenched economic and political interests began to hunt down the country’s anti-corruption judges and prosecutors.
Civil liberties groups say the exclusion of top candidates from the election reflects how elites are gradually reasserting their power.
migrate: Guatemalans rank among fastest growing group of immigrants in the United States. Annual arrivals increased by about 33 percent between 2010 and 2021, from 830,000 to more than 1.1 million.
Many factors drive Guatemalans to emigrate, notably a lack of economic opportunity, with about 59% of the population living below the poverty line.
From the very beginning of President Biden’s term, the United States has made fighting corruption and strengthening democracy in Guatemala and other Central American countries a top priority, arguing that it would prevent people from doing so. leave their homeland.
But those efforts have done little to stem the decline of democracy in the region or create a major dent in the migrant flow.
Criminal: A top theme throughout the campaign season in Guatemala was calls for an emulation against gangs in El Salvador, pointing to growing frustration with the high levels of violent crime.
The number of murders in Guatemala — in part by powerful gangs — climb up nearly 6 percent in 2022 compared with the previous year, and the number of murder victims showing signs of torture has also increased dramatically. Many Guatemalans cite fear of extortion and crime as reasons for emigrating.
