Guest posts by Willis Eschenbach
An online friend of mine informed me of a strange change in the Greenland Ice Sheet. From Danish Polar PortalHere are two of their graphics.
Figure 1. Surface Mass Balance (SMB), polar year 2022-2023.
The Polar Portal website says:
The blue curve shows the current season’s surface mass balance measured in gigatons (1 Gt is 1 billion tons and corresponds to 1 cubic kilometer of water).
The dark gray curve tracks the mean from the period 1981-2010.
The light gray band shows the difference between the years. For any given calendar date, the range shows the range for 30 years (for the period 1981-2010), however with the lowest and highest values for each day omitted.
And what is the surface mass balance (SMB) when it’s at home? Again from the Polar Portal.
The difference between snowfall and runoff is called the SURFACE mass balance. It is always positive throughout the year because not all the snow that falls falls off the ice sheet.
The surface mass balance is NOT the same as the TOTAL mass balance (i.e. the overall gain or loss of the ice cap), which also includes mass lost as glaciers separate from the icebergs, the melting of glacier blades when they are exposed to high temperatures. seawater and friction and other effects at the bottom of the iceberg.
It is odd, in my view, that despite the warmer-than-normal conditions of the North Atlantic at this time of year, the surface mass balance has increased more than at any time between 1981-2010 . Go picture.
One thing you can depend on the weather to do, and that is, it won’t do what you depend on it to do…
However, this is only surface mass balance (SMB). The total mass of the Greenland ice sheet continues to decrease. And this is where the graphic trick comes into play. People like Polar Portal are happy to show graphs of the cumulative loss of Greenland ice.
Figure 2. Polar Portal ice loss graph since 2003
Looking for a longer dataset, here is the dataset I created, based on British Antarctic Survey (IMBIE) Data. Of course, I can’t make it as boring as most graphs. I like my charts to be little works of art.
Figure 3. Accumulated ice loss since 1992, Greenland.
YIKE! At the rate it is decreasing, it is clear that we are about to lose the Greenland ice cap entirely…
… however, this is only a loss. What difference does this make to the total mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet? Figure 4 shows that change.
Figure 4. Change in total ice mass in Greenland, 1992-2021.
Again, it seems we are on the verge of an abyss.
However, there is still one small detail to take into account. When we look at things as a whole, such as changes in the total amount of ice in Greenland, it is important that the vertical “Y” axis starts at 0. This is called a “zero-based” graph. ” and in the wonderful world of climate science, they’re pretty rare. Figure 5 shows why alarmists don’t like them.
Figure 5. Zero-based graph of the change in total ice mass in Greenland, 1992-2021. Note that this is the same data as shown in Figure 4 directly above.
Rub! Looks like the disaster was averted. And in fact, if Greenland continues to lose ice at its current rate, it will all be gone by around 14700 AD.
Reminds me of the old joke. A scientist said “The Sun will turn into a nova in 5 billion years”. One of the spectators stood up and said “What! It’s scary! What do you say?”
The scientist repeated his statement, and the man said “Oh, thank god. I think I will have to change my lifestyle. I think you said year million year!”
Crazy world, crazy tunes…
Best regards to all, congratulations to David Hart,
w.
Well, I know you’ve heard it before: When you comment, please quote the exact words you are referring to. It avoids all kinds of misunderstandings.
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