Guest Post by Javier Vinós
No person with minimal information will deny that the climate is changing. The climate is always changing. Since 1860, climate change has mostly been warming, which is fortunate because if we had a winter like the 1800-1850s, we’d be in for a shock. No one has been able to prove that global warming is mainly a consequence of our emissions. It is reasonable to assume that the amount of CO increases2 has contributed to warming since the mid-20sorder century when our CO2 emissions increased significantly, but no one knows how much they contributed, even though the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) asserts that “Humans are the main cause of the global warming observed in recent decades.” (IPCC AR6page 515).
There is no evidence for this claim. I know this because I have read thousands of scientific papers looking for it. And no, computer models are not proof of anything but the programming skills of their authors. Models and their predictions are constantly changing, and as our knowledge of the climate changes, they must be reworked.
The complete lack of evidence stands in stark contrast to our decision to cut CO2 emissions to zero by radically changing our fossil fuel-based energy system and calling CO2 a contaminant—when it is as essential to life as oxygen. All of this while most of the world doesn’t care about emissions and many are just participating for the money promised.
For good news about global warming, we need to look at variations in the rate of global warming, i.e. the rate of warming. Today we’ll be using satellite-calculated global temperature data from the University of Alabama at Huntsville, UAH 6.0. They are plotted in Figure 1.
As we can see, the temperature trend is down since 2016 so 2022 is the seventh hottest year. In 7 years the planet has cooled. Does that mean warming is over? No, the 7-year period of cooling is regular on record, eight of them since 1979, and warming continues. But only one cooling period lasting more than 15 years, from 1998 to 2014, occurred in the 45-year record. It’s called “Pause”.
To analyze the evolution of the warming rate, we subtract the previous data from the monthly data to calculate the monthly increase. We then remove the monthly gain by finding a 12-month moving average to remove a lot of noise. Finally, we calculate the 15-year average warming rate in °C/decade by calculating a 180-month moving average and multiplying the obtained data by 120.
Each point on the curve in Figure 2 is the rate of warming in the 15 years prior to that month. The highlight pause is the only time that has a negative rate. For the current cooling period to appear on that graph in negative proportions would require global temperatures to remain below 2016 levels by the end of 2030.
But the good news that no one tells us is that global warming is slowing down. The 15-year rate was very high from the mid-1980s to the late 1990s, reaching 0.35°C/decade. The overall period average for satellite records is 1.3 °C per century or 0.13 °C/decade, but the long-term trend has decreased from 1.6 °C/century to 1 °C/century today. The current cooling phase is contributing to this long-term decline in warming rates.
At first, this good news was not communicated to us because it was achieved without doing anything to reduce our global CO.2 emissions, which raises the question of the imperative need to make a major effort to reduce them.
Second, we are not told this “good” news because the rate of warming decreases while the rate of increase of CO2 in the atmosphere2 is accelerating, as shown in Figure 3. Data from NOAA has been seasonally removed, so we skipped this step. We follow the same procedure for the same period (1979-2022) as for the graph in Figure 2.
The problem with the theory of anthropogenic warming is that while the rate of warming is slowing, the rate of change of CO2 in the atmosphere2 is increasing steadily and in the same period it has increased from 14 parts per million (ppm) per decade to 23.5 ppm/decade. In other words, its growth rate has almost doubled.
According to the greenhouse gas climate change theory, it is not possible for warming to slow down while CO2 is accelerating rapidly. Consequences of CO2 increased greenhouse effect is known. Each additional molecule blocks infrared radiation, increasing the average emission height from the atmosphere and requiring an increase in surface temperature for the planet to maintain its radiative balance, i.e., equivalent energy radiation. equivalent to the energy it receives from solar radiation. Theory does not allow global warming to slow down with CO . acceleration2 emissions. The theory is wrong or incomplete. There are climate change basics that we don’t understand that have the potential to offset, cancel and even reverse the effects of CO2.2 increased temperature. I proposed an alternative, which the IPCC did not consider, in The Winter Gatekeeper Hypothesisbased on changes in polar energy transport.
Third, we are not bombarded every day by the good news that global warming is slowing because models predict the opposite, which shows that despite spending a lot of money, the models This is useless. The 5th Combined Model Inter-Comparative Project (CMIP5) has predicted greater warming for the period 2006-2022 than has been observed. To the dismay of climatologists (Voosen 2022), the changes introduced in the CMIP6 samples made the prediction of temperature rise much higher, so they decided that, instead of averaging all samples as was done in CMIP5, only flask the coolest samples. Even so, the deviation between the model and reality becomes more and more uncomfortable with each passing year (Figure 4).
Other good climate news
The year 2022 has more good news on climate than we’ve ever heard of.
In September, sea ice reached a minimum of 4.87 million square kilometers in the Arctic. This is higher than the 2007 level, which means that the trend of summer sea ice in the Arctic has been zero over the past 16 years (Figure 5). We were told that the Arctic was melting, and Greenpeace used it to raise money from people who weren’t careful. money in good faith that it used, among other things, to maintain its CEO’s high lifestyle. The Arctic melted significantly between 1990 and 2007, but it hasn’t happened in the last 16 years, and I don’t think it’s because of the money given to Greenpeace.
With data available through September, sea level rose only 2mm in the first 9 months of the year. The decreasing trend of sea level rise over the past 10 years continues (Figure 6). This indicates that sea level rise may be related to an increase in temperature, which is plausible. As a result, sea level rise models are at least as wrong as temperature models, and the one meter or more sea level rise numbers that the media are trying to scare us off are absurd.
It must be said that satellites measure sea level rise at twice the rate recorded by coastal tide gauges. Either sea levels are rising at the center rather than at the coasts, or there is a problem in measuring sea level rise to the center of the Earth without taking into account what is happening at the ocean floor.
In any case, unreasonable sea level rise is only a problem in areas where subsidence is caused by human activity, groundwater extraction or excessive coastal construction. An example of the non-existence of a serious problem here are two 45 years apart photos of the same building located just 10 meters off the Mediterranean coast, where I spend my vacation (figure 7). ). Coastal erosion has affected the profile somewhat, but sea levels do not appear to have increased appreciably. local Alicante II Tide gauges show sea level rise of about 10 cm in 60 years or 1.5 mm per year.
Despite all the constant claims that climate change is making extreme events more intense and frequent, there is no data to back this up, which is why the data never time is presented. The IPCC reports do not conclude that extreme events are getting worse, with the exception of heatwaves, depending on the definition.
2022 was a very quiet year in terms of storm numbers, continuing the downward trend since the mid-1990s in both frequency and energy (Figure 8).
I have mentioned many times that in a warmer world, the temperature difference between the equator and the poles is smaller, reducing the amount of energy transported and the intensity of atmospheric circulation, so we should not assume that warming will increase the frequency of extreme events, just as we should not expect global rainfall to decrease.
Conclusion
2022 will be a favorable year in terms of climate, while also reaffirming the positive trend towards reducing the intensity of climate change in many key indicators: temperature, Arctic sea ice extent, water level sea and extreme events. Let’s not be fooled by those who support our taxes. We have nothing to fear about climate change now or in the near future. Richard Feynman, one of the best physicists of the 20th century, said in 1966 that thing “Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts”and Stuart Firestein teaches us that ignorance is the fuel that advances science. Those who believe they know what is wrong with the climate, who refuse to accept their ignorance, is not scientific progress, but hinders its progress by slowing it down. They do not deserve to be called scientists because they do not serve the cause of science, which is to advance knowledge. They are just trying to pocket their pockets by defending an orthodox position for obvious political gain. It is clear why the climate commission is called “intergovernmental”.
Lightly edited by Andy May
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