President Biden vowed during the campaign to make the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, “deposed” for the murder and dismemberment of a dissident. He threatened the prince again last fall with “consequences” for defying the wishes of the Americans on oil policy.
Lindsey Graham, a Republican senator, called Prince Mohammed, the de facto ruler of the oil-rich kingdom, “break the ball“who can “never be a leader on the world stage.” And Jay Monahan, head of golf’s prestigious PGA Tour, alleges that players participating in the Saudi Arabia-backed rival tournament betrayed the victims of the September 11 terrorist attacks – The hijackers were mostly Saudi nationals.
Now, their words are empty.
Mr. Biden, visited Saudi Arabia last year, fist collision Prince Mohammed when they met and regularly sent officials to see him – including his secretary of state, Antony J. Blinken, last week. Senator Graham grinning beside the prince – known by the initials MBS – during a visit to Saudi Arabia in April. Also this week, Mr. Monahan shocked the professional golf world when he announced partnership planning between the PGA and the emerging Saudi-backed LIV Golf tournament, suddenly giving the kingdom immense global influence over the sport.
“It just tells you what money says because this guy sits on this oil well and all this money, so he can basically buy anything that comes his way,” said Abdullah Alaoudh, director of the Saudi Freedom Initiative, a human rights group. in Washington and was a vocal opponent of the monarchy.
Several times during his eight years in power, Prince Mohammed, 37, has defied expectations that his rule was in jeopardy while taking advantage of the kingdom’s wealth, its influence on oil market and its importance in the Arab and Muslim world to evade repeated threats to punish him with international isolation.
Along the way, he not only honed his vision of Saudi Arabia’s future as an assertive regional power with a growing economy and growing political influence, but also learned lessons from the past. from its failures to refine its methods of achieving its goals, analysts and officials said. speak.
For now, at least, he seems to be riding high.
Strong oil demand in recent years has filled the kingdom’s coffers. It bought an English football club, paid a staggering amount to bring Cristiano Ronaldo to play in its national league and is try to recruit other international starsalso.
If the golf deal goes through, a close aide to Prince Mohammed will become one of the sport’s most powerful figures, giving Saudi Arabia another big platform to shape its international image.
In recent years, heads of state from Türkiye to the United States who once snubbed Crown Prince Mohammed now see him as the future of Saudi Arabia. And he has deepened the kingdom’s relationship with China, helping broker a Diplomatic breakthrough between Saudi Arabia and Iranlongtime rival in the region.
All of that marks significant progress for a young prince, who is seen by many as a dangerous upstart after his father. become king in 2015.
That same year, the prince launched a military intervention in Yemen that caused Massive civilian death and sink into the quagmire. He then shocked the diplomatic community with Kidnapping the Prime Minister of Lebanon and stunned the business community by locking up hundreds of wealthy Saudis for weeks on end in a luxury hotel as part of targeted anti-corruption efforts.
His international status plummeted in 2018 after a Saudi Arabia strike team killed and dismembered Dissident Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi inside the kingdom’s consulate in Istanbul. Prince Mohammed denied any prior knowledge of the plot, but the Central Intelligence Agency concluded that he may have ordered the operation.
That was probably his lowest point.
But in the years since, the crown prince has recovered much of his influence, thanks to the country’s considerable wealth and power.
Early on, he pushed his rivals aside to consolidate his control at home. The social changes he has pushed, such as allowing women to drive and expanding entertainment options in a country that once banned cinemas, have gained his fan base among young people. of the kingdom.
He also knows that, as king-in-waiting in a monarchy, he can play the long game. He’ll never have to run for re-election and he’s already dealing with his third US president, with many likely to come and go while he’s still around.
His eventual recovery from the Khashoggi case shows that the kingdom’s money can go a long way, and no matter how much Western governments talk about human rights, other interests end up. is still preferred.
“The Gulf Arab states, they think it’s a joke,” said Dina Esfandiary, senior adviser for the Middle East and North Africa at the International Crisis Group, of human rights critics. “They really captured their value to the Western world, as a partner, as an energy producer, as a country with economic power, so they said, ‘We have can handle this empty threat because it’s just part of the relationship.’”
President Trump was in office when Mr. Khashoggi was killed and was adamant protect the princesaid that among other things, Saudi Arabia’s arms purchases benefit the United States.
Mr. Graham, a senator from South Carolina who after Khashoggi’s murder said Crown Prince Mohammed was unfit to lead, turned and praised him during his visit to Saudi Arabia in April, when he thanked him. Saudi Arabia bought American jets.
“You bought $37 billion of planes made in my state and my country. I think more is coming,” Mr. Graham told Saudi Arabia’s Al Arabiya TV station. “So as a U.S. senator, I have the power to change course.”
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, whose government revealed the details of Khashoggi’s murder to the detriment of Crown Prince Mohammed, finally set aside the objections. Last year, a Turkish court Turning the case against Mr. Khashoggi’s killers to Saudi Arabia, concluding a case that ultimately seeks to ensure accountability for crimes. Not long after, the kingdom set aside $5 billion in deposits to the central bank of Türkiye to help shore up its finances.
The PGA made a similar face.
For months, Mr Monahan, the PGA commissioner, berated Saudi Arabia, even asking players considering taking part in a rival circuit: “Have you ever had to apologize for being a member of the PGA Tour Not yet?”
As a result, many were shocked when he announced the new partnership.
Chris Murphy, a Democratic senator, wrote on Twitter that PGA officials had recently argued to him that “the human rights record of the Saudis would disqualify them from participating in a major American sport.”
Senator Murphy added: “I guess maybe their concern isn’t really about human rights?”
Influencing many of Crown Prince Mohammed’s decisions in recent years has been a growing feeling in the kingdom that the United States has become an unreliable partner.
Prince has dealt with three US presidents from both parties, who all want to reduce US involvement in the Middle East. The risks of such a retreat for Saudi Arabia became apparent in 2019, when drone and missile attacks the United States accused Iran of orchestrating. Attack on Saudi oil facilitiestemporarily halted about half of the kingdom’s output.
President Trump refused to answer directly, leading Crown Prince Mohammed and his counterparts in the United Arab Emirates to conclude that the United States no longer supports them and that they must fend for their own security. self.
“They have now etched into their minds that ‘We can’t count on Washington to protect us, so we have to do it ourselves,’” said Ms. Esfandiary of the International Crisis Group. “This has led to some changes in their foreign policy.”
It also reduces the likelihood that Saudi Arabia will automatically accept US demands.
Prince Mohammed refused to join Western sanctions aimed at isolating President Vladimir V. Putin after Russia invaded Ukraine, and instead, Saudi Arabia ramped up imports of discounted oil products. of Russia.
After Mr. Biden met Prince Mohammed in Saudi Arabia last July, the administration pushed the kingdom to maintain oil production to help lower gas prices in the United States ahead of the midterm elections in November. But in October, the kingdom agreed with other members of the oil alliance known as OPEC Plus to cut production instead, in an attempt to keep prices down.
That angered Mr. Biden, and White House officials accused Saudi Arabia of reneging on the deal. Months later, as oil demand fell, Saudi Arabia insisted it was right to resist political pressure and cut production.
The “consequences” promised by President Biden never materialized, making it clear that even the United States considers its economic relationship with Saudi Arabia too important to break.
The perception that the United States was withdrawing from the Middle East prompted Prince Mohammed to expand Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic ties, especially with China, the kingdom’s most important trading partner and country. Saudi Arabia’s largest oil consumer.
In recent years, the crown prince has endorsed China’s president, Xi Jinping, to host him at the China-Arab summit in Riyadh in December 2022. During that meeting, the two leaders discussed China’s role as a mediator to ease conflicts with the Iranians.
A few months later, the relationship yielded a surprising diplomatic breakthrough, when Saudi Arabia and Iran announced they would restore normal diplomatic relations.
It was a double victory for Prince Mohammed, who in a deal reduced the likelihood of conflict with his main regional enemy while giving a world power outside the United States a share of the benefits. in the results.
Saudi officials have said they want to keep the United States as their main ally but the lack of American commitment means they need to diversify. And the United States is not in a position to broker a deal between the Saudis and Iran because of its own strained relationship with Tehran.
Even some of the kingdom’s former critics see positive signs in Crown Prince Mohammed’s efforts to appease the region.
Dennis Horak, former ambassador to Canada, said: “You’ve rebuilt these bridges and tried to rein in some of the more quintessential activity, reaching out and trying to be a more constructive force in area”. banished from his position in Riyadh in 2018 over Twitter posts criticizing the arrest of Saudi activists.
The question, he said, is whether this will last.
“Of course, the problem that’s always been with MBS is that he can change in a split second,” he said. “But maybe that is changing. Maybe he’s maturing a little bit.”
Vivian Nereim Contribution report from Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
