Floods ‘have not increased in frequency or intensity’ – White House ignores peer-reviewed studies & IPCC & data – Watts Up With That?
By: Marc Morano
Climate Depot Reality Check:
Extreme Weather expert Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. comments on new study: ‘New empirical study: Are floods increasing in North America and Europe? No (and consistent with IPCC.)’
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Study published in the Journal of Hydrology, Volume 552, September 2017, Pages 704-717. The study found:
‘The number of significant trends was about the number expected due to chance alone.’
‘Changes in the frequency of major floods are dominated by multidecadal variability.’
‘The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded (Hartmann et al., 2013) that globally there is no clear and widespread evidence of changes in flood magnitude or frequency in observed flood records.’
‘The results of this study, for North America and Europe, provide a firmer foundation and support the conclusion of the IPCC (Hartmann et al., 2013) that compelling evidence for increased flooding at a global scale is lacking.’
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Journal of Hydrology
Volume 552, September 2017, Pages 704-717
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Related Links:
2018 US climate assessment: Bjorn Lomborg: The report found: On flooding, the assessment accepts the IPCC’s finding, which “did not attribute changes in flooding to anthropogenic [human] influence nor report detectable changes in flooding magnitude, duration or frequency.”
2017 Study on floods finds ‘approximately the number expected due to chance alone’ – No ‘global warming’ signal – A study published in the Journal of Hydrology found “the number of significant trends in major-flood occurrence across North America and Europe was approximately the number expected due to chance alone.”
Via Chapter excerpt of Green Fraud:
Not-So-Extreme Weather Events
In 2017 Roger Pielke Jr. of the University of Colorado testified to Congress there was simply “‘no evidence’ that hurricanes, floods, droughts, tornadoes are increasing.”
A 2020 study by Pielke published in the journal Environmental Hazards found that the “evidence signal of human-caused climate change in the form of increased global economic losses from more frequent or more intense weather extremes has not yet been detected.”
On nearly every metric, extreme weather is on either no trend or a declining trend on climate timescales. Even the UN IPCC admitted in a 2018 special report that extreme weather events have not increased. The IPCC’s special report found that “there is only low confidence regarding changes in global tropical cyclone numbers under global warming over the last four decades.” The IPCC report also concluded “low confidence in the sign of drought trends since 1950 at global scale.”
Pielke testified to Congress on the current state of weather extremes, “It is misleading, and just plain incorrect, to claim that disasters associated with hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, or droughts have increased on climate timescales either in the United States or globally.”
Floods
A 2017 study on floods found “approximately the number expected due to chance alone.”
Another 2017 study in the Journal of Hydrology found no increase in global floods: “Compelling evidence for increased flooding at a global scale is lacking.”59
A 2019 study found that the world is the safest from climate-related disasters that it has ever been: “A decreasing trend in both human and economic vulnerability is evident. Global average mortality and loss rates have dropped by 6.5 and nearly 5 times, respectively, from 1980 to 1989 to 2007–2016. Results also show a clear negative relation between vulnerability and wealth.”
Climatologist John Christy has explained why the extreme weather claims are unscientific: “The non-falsifiable hypotheses can be stated this way, ‘whatever happens is consistent with my hypothesis.’ In other words, there is no event that would ‘falsify’ the hypothesis. As such, these assertions cannot be considered science or in any way informative since the hypothesis’ fundamental prediction is ‘anything may happen.’ In the example above if winters become milder or they become snowier, the non-falsifiable hypothesis stands. This is not science.”
‘Floods are not increasing’: Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. slams ‘global warming’ link to floods & extreme weather – How does media ‘get away with this?’ – Pielke Jr. on how extreme weather is NOT getting worse: ‘Flood disasters are sharply down. U.S. floods not increasing either.’ “Floods suck when they occur. The good news is U.S. flood damage is sharply down over 70 years,” Pielke explained.
Study Finds No Evidence Of Global Warming Increasing Extreme Rainfall
1000 year rainfall study suggests droughts and floods used to be longer, worse
Study: No Difference Between 20th-century Rainfall Patterns and Those in the Pre-Industrial Era
Analysis: Record Rainfalls A Thing Of The Past:Note from Paul Homewood: “The rainfall from Harvey was the greatest from a single storm. However, this was just in one spot, as Harvey was stuck over Houston for a week. Other storms have dumped more rain, but spread over a wider area.” ‘We keep being told by climate alarmists that global warming is responsible for more intensive rainfall, the theory being that a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture. Funny then that when we look at rainfall records across the US for all sorts of different timescales, we find none at all since 1981.’
Warmist Blames India Monsoon On ‘Climate Change’ But Annual rainfall trends debunk –India’s monsoon rainfall has been running just above average this year, but within the normal range (regarded as 10% +/-)
Reality Check: Global Cooling Led To More Extremes Of Rainfall – ‘Rainfall actually increased sharply during the period of global cooling in the 1960s and 70s’
Scientist: ‘There Is No Such Thing As A 1000-Year Flood’ – Climate Statistician Dr. Matt Briggs: Phrases like “100 year rainfalls” or floods or whatever for whatever period of time are awful. They convey an improper idea of uncertainty. The phrase “X year event” is based on inverting the probability of the event; call that probability p. Thus “X year event” is equal to “1/p year event”, where p is the probability the event happens per year. That means a “100 year event” has a probability of 1%, and so on. A “1000 year event” sounds stupendous, and, to most ears, rarer than a 0.1% chance. Anyway, these are all wrong…It’s perfectly correct to make the statements like this: “The last time a flood this size occurred was in 1945.” That statement is not, however, equivalent to (in 2015) “That was a 70 year flood.”
Climatologist Dr. Roy Spencer: South Carolina Flooding is NOT a 1 in 1,000 Year Event – But a once on 1,000 year event? Sorry, but there is no way to determine that…there are simply not enough rainfall statistics over a long enough period of time to establish such a claim…Unfortunately, there seems to be an trend toward classifying events as “1 in 1,000 years”, when there is no way of knowing such things…For some areas the current flood is no doubt a 1 in 100 year event, or even worse. But remember, it is perfectly normal to have a 1 in 100 year event every year…as long as they occur in different locations. That’s how weather records work.
Meteorologist Topper Shutt – WUSA 9 TV: ‘A 500 year flood does not mean that an area will see a flood of that magnitude once in 500 years. It means that in any given year there is a .2% chance of a 500 year flood and likewise a 1% chance every year for a 100 year flood. Think of it like this. If I flip a coin and it lands heads 5 times in a row the 6th time I flip the coin the odds are still 50/50. The odds are always 50/50. There have been ‘100 year’ floods in Houston in 1929, 1935, Allison in 2001 and Ike in 2008. Folks are probably scratching their heads wondering what in the world is going on. There are several explanations. Firstly, the maps drawn to depict these floods were educated guesses. Remember, we are talking about billions of years of climate and usually just a hundred years of actual, observational data. Secondly, urban development reduces the surface of the ground that allows the rain to permeate into the ground. Adding parking lots, more roads and driveways create more runoff. Thirdly, at least in the case of Houston 1000s of homes have been built close to streams, creeks and bayous that should have never been built in the first place. Houston is the fourth largest city in the U.S.’
Climate Depot Note: The media and climate activists love to hype so-called 1 in 100/1000 year extreme weather events. What they do not not explain is that your chance of the winning the lottery is very low, but the chance of someone, somewhere winning the lottery are very high. So the activists essentially hype “lottery winners” of extreme weather events and try to imply these events are increasing and happening everywhere. Lottery and casino ads do the same by showing all the winners and implying you are just one ticket or spin away from joining the lucky winners. Climate activists are trying to scare the public into believing that they are one bad weather event away from doom and only EPA and the UN Paris climate pact can save them!
Feds declare no climate link to floods in 2015 – South Carolina’s ‘1000 year flood’ only a 10 year flood! U.S. Geological Survey: ‘No linkage between flooding & increase in GHGs’ – Dr. Robert Holmes, USGS National Flood Hazard Coordinator: ‘The data shows no systematic increases in flooding through time’ – ‘USGS research has shown no linkage between flooding (either increases or decreases) and the increase in greenhouse gases. Essentially, from USGS long-term streamgage data for sites across the country with no regulation or other changes to the watershed that could influence the streamflow, the data shows no systematic increases in flooding through time.’ 1000 year flood? ‘The majority of USGS streamgages had flood peaks that were less than 10-year floods.’ – ‘Analysis show NO indication that a 1000-year flood discharge occurred at any USGS streamgages’
Climatologist Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. slams NOAA study as ‘manipulation of science for political reasons.’ ‘NOAA should be embarrassed.’
Pielke Sr.: ‘From under reviewed paper to NOAA PR to USA Today. A dismaying example of manipulation of science for political reasons.’
Climate Depot’s Marc Morano on new NOAA study: “No matter how hard federally funded climate activist scientists at NOAA try to bend and twist models and data to make it appear the invisible hand of ‘global warming’ has a role in almost every weather event, the facts refute their claims.”
Reality Check: The ‘1000 year Colorado flood’ is actually a 25-50 year flood
Pielke Jr. On ‘unsupportable quotes’ from Mann, Francis & Masters: ‘Of course, there are scientists willing to go beyond what can be supported empirically to make claims at odds with the overwhelming scientific consensus on this subject — e.g., [Michael] Mann, [Jennifer] Francis, [Jeff] Masters are always good for inscrutable and unsupportable quotes.’
STUDY: Covid lockdown’s rapid emissions drop linked to record rainfall in China – ‘Scientists say’ drop in emissions & aerosols ’caused atmospheric changes’– Study in journal, Nature Communications: “The chain of events that connects the pandemic shutdown to the floods is quite complex. There was heating over land due to aerosol reductions but also cooling over the ocean due to a decrease in greenhouse gases, which intensified the land/sea temperature difference in the summer,” explained lead author Prof Yang Yang from Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, in China. “This in turn, increased sea level pressure over the South China/Philippines sea and intensified the winds bringing moist air to eastern China which then saw intense precipitation.”
“Because emissions were reduced dramatically in early 2020 when the Covid-19 pandemic emerged, it caused an immediate and abrupt change in various components of the climate system.” “Such sudden change of the climate system would be very different from changes in response to continuous but gradual policy-driven emissions reductions.”
Hourly Extreme Rainfall Claims Not Supported By Data
Warmist Blames India Monsoon On ‘Climate Change’ But Annual rainfall trends debunk– India’s monsoon rainfall has been running just above average this year, but within the normal range (regarded as 10% +/-)
Claim: Climate change made Harvey rainfall 15 percent more intense
Analysis: Record Rainfalls A Thing Of The Past– Note from Paul Homewood: “The rainfall from Harvey was the greatest from a single storm. However, this was just in one spot, as Harvey was stuck over Houston for a week. Other storms have dumped more rain, but spread over a wider area.”
‘We keep being told by climate alarmists that global warming is responsible for more intensive rainfall, the theory being that a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture. Funny then that when we look at rainfall records across the US for all sorts of different timescales, we find none at all since 1981.’
“Take particular note of the four records in Texas:
- Galveston 1871 – 3.95” in 15 minutes
- Woodward Ranch 1935 – 15.0” in 2 hours
- Thrall 1921 – 36.4” in 18 hours
- Alvin 1979 – 43” in 24 hours
Storm Harvey never got anywhere near these sort of totals. And we find a very similar picture when we review global records, with the most recent record being as long ago as 1980.”
The Atlantic Mag: Warmist Kevin Trenberth claim: ‘The human contribution can be up to 30 percent or so up to the total rainfall coming out of the storm.’
Media claim: ‘Harvey is unprecedented—just the kind of weird weather that scientists expect to see more of as the planet warms’
New Study Finds No Evidence Of Global Warming Increasing Extreme Rainfall
The Thousand Year Rainfall Fallacy: ‘Conflating odds of one individual station getting a 20 inch rain, with odds of any station getting a 20 inch rain.’– ‘Your odds of winning the lottery are very small, but the odds of someone winning the lottery are quite high. What these geniuses are doing is conflating the odds of one individual station getting a 20 inch rain, with the odds of any station getting a 20 inch rain.’
Reality Check on Salon Mag.: “Extreme Rainfall Records In The States” Most are pre-1950, none since 1996:
No new records have been set since 1996 and most are pre-1950. Not much sign of global warming having any effect there.
Industrial pollution has allegedly ‘held back’ rainfall increases
Settled science: New paper challenges climate science consensus on winds & rainfall — Published in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics– Study ‘finds that condensation and evaporation merit attention as major, if previously overlooked, factors in driving atmospheric dynamics, including winds and rainfall. ‘This paper is really trying to bring the physics to formal attention of the climate scientists,” according to co-author Douglas Sheil. “We are asking them to disprove this theory and so far no one has been able to do that’
NOAA Establishes That CO2 & Hot Climates Do Not Cause Extreme Rainfall Events
‘A paper published today in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics finds that sunspot numbers and the assumption of natural climate cycles ‘accurately reproduces’ the patterns of rainfall in Fortaleza, Brasil ‘over the entire 160 years of observations.’
‘AGW theory proposes that increased CO2 levels lead to increased water vapor in atmosphere (despite empirical data which shows the opposite). A paper published in Nature Climate Change February 2012 studied rainfall over Indian subcontinent 1813-2006 & finds rainfall has decreased since 1930s as CO2 emissions markedly increased. The data instead shows a natural, cyclical variability in mean annual rainfall that peaked in 1870s and 1930s with absolutely no correlation to levels of CO2’
Why climate change is causing upset stomachs in Europe: ‘Scientists are now suggesting that greater quantities of rainfall and bigger storms could be responsible for more unsettled stomachs in parts of Europe’– ‘Sweden, Spain, Hungary, Greece and Brazil. These countries are particularly vulnerable to climate change, being susceptible to heavy rainfall. Tests included analysing exposure levels to estimate the risk of disease associated with climate changes such as heavy rainfall’
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