False, The Conversation, The Evidence That People Are NOT More At Risk From Hurricanes – Watts Up With That?
A recent article in Conversation suggests, based on new evidence of past hurricane frequency, that coastal and island areas in the Atlantic hurricane basin may face a dire future involving a greater threat from storms. This seems like an odd statement because the evidence the paper provides indicates that in recent times, warming storms are less frequent than in the past, with periods of hurricane activity being most intense. occurs when the sea is cooler. Indeed, the data shows that hurricanes have occurred more frequently in multiple periods over the past 2,000 years than they do now, all of which occurred when carbon dioxide levels were much lower than they are today. This fact suggests that there is no causal link between carbon dioxide concentrations and storm formation.
In Conversation story“We’re deciphering traces of ancient storms on the seafloor – and the evidence from millennia of Atlantic hurricanes isn’t good news for the coast,” he said. the author, Tyler Winkler, notes precisely:
[The 2022 hurricane season provides] a reminder that small sample sizes can be misleading when assessing trends in storm behavior. There is so much natural variation in hurricane behavior from year to year and even decade to decade that we need to look further back in time to see real trends.
Fortunately, storms leave clear evidence dating back millennia.
These two thousand years of evidence indicate that the Atlantic has experienced periods of even more intense storms than we have seen in recent years.
The evidence that Winkler is discussing is sedimentary borehole cores and shells found in coastal marshes, sinkholes, and ponds from different locations on the Atlantic coast and on different islands.
Winkler’s data show that over the past 2,000 years, decade-by-year data shows that storms, including strong ones, have occurred more frequently in the past than they do now, during periods of extreme heat. higher and lower altitudes.
“For example, the Thatchpoint Blue Hole on Great Abaco Island in the northern Bahamas includes evidence of at least 13 hurricanes per century of Category 2 or more between 1500 and 1670,” Winkler reported. “That significantly exceeds the rate of nine people per century recorded since 1850.”
Winkler’s data clearly demonstrate that there have been periods in the past, when carbon dioxide concentrations were much lower than they are today, when hurricane frequency and severity were greater. This conclusion was confirmed in every core sample from every site. (see picture below)
In every sample, the evidence suggests that the time period that produced the greatest number of storms was decades in the middle and near the end of the Little Ice Age. Although his own research points to natural factors, not human-caused climate change, that have driven hurricane cycles throughout history, Winkler writes, that the evidence “is for scientists Coastal oceanographers as I know we may be underestimating the threat that hurricanes pose to the Caribbean islands and North American coast in the future.”
It is unclear on what basis Winkler’s stated fear was based. Indeed, alternative data sources and other research confirm that the factors, some of which Winkler discusses, such as wind shear and multi-decade oceanic oscillations in ocean currents, but not Warmer temperatures are responsible for an increase and decrease in hurricanes.
For example, Climate realism published dozens of articles, such as here, hereand here, which explores the factors that cause hurricanes and demonstrates that there is no evidence that they have become or are likely to become more frequent or severe in the near future, based on their current understanding on storm dynamics. In addition, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change The most recent report found no evidence The modest warming that the Earth has experienced since the end of the Little Ice Age around 1850 has influenced storm patterns or has any “human footprint” in storm numbers or intensity. .
Rather than warn of a dire future due to the projected effects of climate change models on future hurricane cycles, Winkler should trust what his own data and research say. shown. It does not provide evidence that human use of energy has any effect on storm formation or their relative strength when they form.
Winkler was right to warn that hurricanes pose a danger to coastal areas in the Atlantic basin, but this is something everyone already knows. It is equally clear, that modern settlement model and population growth near storm-prone coastal areas have contributed to an increase in the number of people and related infrastructure affected by hurricanes. You should be prepared and take steps to mitigate the devastating impact that hurricanes often have on society.
Efforts to control climate change by limiting the use of life-sustaining fossil fuels will do nothing to prevent hurricanes from forming or reduce harm when they do. Instead, policies that limit the use of fossil fuels will make it more difficult to mitigate the negative effects of hurricanes.
H. Sterling Burnett, Ph.D., is Director of the Arthur B. Robinson Center for Climate and Environmental Policy and managing editor of Climate & Environment News. In addition to directing the Heartland Institute’s Arthur B. Robinson Center for Climate and Environmental Policy, Burett is also associated with Environment & Climate News, and is editor of Heartland’s Climate Change Weekly Email. and host of the Environment & Climate News Podcast.
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