That plot, foiled when Arbabsiar was lured back to the US and captured, dramatically changed the US intelligence community’s assessment of Iran’s capabilities and intentions – an assassination attempt on US soil long known supposedly a red line that the Iranian regime will not cross. And it helped fuel the Obama administration’s effort to strike a nuclear deal that would prevent it from developing a viable device.
A former senior official I interviewed, who worked at three intelligence agencies during his career, and who also requested anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly by his employer, speculated that if Taherzadeh and Ali are part of an Iranian plot — and there’s no evidence so far that they exist — it could be one of several paths and schemes devised after daring assassination of the United States by Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani in early 2020.
“We have seen intelligence agencies do stupid and stupid things. It can be classified as a not-so-thinkable case though,” the former senior official said. “If you are Iranian and you are upset about Soleimani, you will have a lot of leverage. Maybe they say, ‘It won’t hurt to move forward.’ “
Indeed, as the Arbabsiar case illustrates, the oddity of Taherzadeh and Ali’s alleged actions does not necessarily shed light on whether they were acting on their own or as part of an intelligence operation. “Agencies are not perfect and different parts of an agency have different levels of competence,” says Triplett.
But the former prosecutor said the sheer strangeness of the case led him to suspect any foreign connection. He said that many cases of foreign intelligence and influence involve relatively small amounts of money; The large number of suspects, while seemingly indicating access to substantial resources, most likely indicates the opposite conclusion.
“This is a ton of money. This doesn’t make me quiet and stealthy – it’s quite noisy,” the prosecutor said. “When you look at some of these similar cases, that’s not how the job is done. There is a real sloppiness here. “
Do not depend on As a result, experts agree that this case illustrates how most government officials and law enforcement officers in the nation’s capital are unprepared to face a potentially dangerous counterintelligence operation. possible — although the FBI estimates that there are more than 100 foreign intelligence agencies operating in the United States, from allies and adversaries alike.
“Most US agencies and governments are not prepared for counterintelligence,” Triplett said. “There are permissive environments in the world, and DC is definitely one of them. The number of foreign intelligence groups operating around DC — and the United States in general — is enormous. There are all kinds of networks, peddling influencers — all perfect for intelligence operations. ”
The fact that the Secret Service, NCIS, and even DHS employees appear to have been duped about the authenticity of Taherzadeh and Ali doesn’t really surprise experts in the field. People tend to accept people as they say they are.
“Aside from the FBI and certain intelligence agencies, the average federal law enforcement officer does not receive much training in counterintelligence matters,” the senior official said. “If that is the case, it is a mandatory training every year and at a very high level. They focus on their work – not thinking about how they might become targets of foreign intelligence agencies. If you were an average officer in these agencies, you wouldn’t think of Iranian intelligence. Your radar is not up. ”
