My podcast today is all about heat waves.
Let’s start with the big heatwave dilemma that has never been properly explained in the media:
The Northwest is warming due to anthropogenic climate change but extreme heat waves are NOT increasing in our region.
How can that be?
First, let me prove it.
Below are summer temperatures (July through August) across Washington State over the past 50 years. Increase about 2F during this period.
Some of this may be natural or the result of urbanization/instrumental change, but much of it may be due to anthropogenic climate change.
With warming during this time, the frequency with which some thresholds like 80 or 90F is exceeded is increasing. The Seattle Times did a heatwave story a few days ago and shows this (see below from ST). As expected, in Seattle there are many days above 90 degrees F as we warm up.
But then the Seattle Times charted the record daily temperatures for July in Seattle (see below)….and there was little trend up! How is this possible?
Just take a look at the Seattle Times… I’ve been doing the same thing in July and August for over 50 years, plotting the warmest observed temperatures in both SeaTac and Pasco (see below).
There is hardly any variation in annual extreme temperatures in either location. No long term trend…. aAnd you would expect a trend if global warming is important for extreme heatwaves!
My podcast reveals the answer to this dilemma. Natural variability … natural causes … govern extreme heat waves, with global warming having only a very small impact. Extreme heat waves in our region could result in temperatures 30-40 degrees F above normal and global warming 1-2 degrees F well within the noise level.
My podcast also talks about the big cooling that’s coming on Monday. Yes, we’ll have to make it through Saturday and Sunday, but on Monday a strong uproar will hit and temperatures will drop to the 70s on that day – with clouds and even clouds. even a few showers.
After that, no big heat wave in sight!
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