“The trend of warming waning over the past 40 years is clear,” said the German expert – Interested in that?
Via P Gosselin above 11. May 2022
Via Kalte Sonne
Dear ladies and gentlemen,
In light of the energy crisis that has become apparent in Germany and Europe over the past few months, things have become quieter about the supposed climate emergency. On the one hand, energy prices and supply security have pushed climate into the background. On the other hand, the weakening of the warming trend of the past 40 years is obvious.
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The temperature curve of the University of Alabama UAH satellite-based measurements has fluctuated between -0.2 and 0.4 degrees for 20 years and appears to have remained stable since 2015, as shown in Fig. next chart in zoom. (The source: woodfortrees). The mean is plotted in green – it shows a slight downtrend since 2015. Why is this not reported?
What are the reasons for this stagnation?
The concentration of CO2 in the air continues to increase unabated. It is true that annual global CO2 emissions have been more or less flat for several years now, at 40 billion tons of CO2. More than half is absorbed by the oceans and plants, so now each year, the equivalent of about 2.5 ppm CO2 is added to the air concentration. In 2015, there was 401 ppm CO2 in the air; in 2021, is 416 ppm. By the way, at this rate we will never reach the IPCC scary scenario of 800 to 1000 ppm by 2100.
No, the lack of warmth must have another reason
What is the amount of natural warming in the last 30 years?
And how big will natural cooling be in the next 30 years?
Changes in global temperature can also occur spontaneously. We know that Cloud coverage has decreased by about 2% after the turn of the millennium and over the past 10 years, cloud cover has stabilized at a low level.. Second, there are ocean temperature cycles such as the Atlantic multipolar oscillatory AMO, which increased sharply from 1980 to the beginning of this millennium (0.5 degrees, after all), which has remained at its maximum since there, and is now weakening a bit again (see next graph).
The United States Oceanic and Weather Service, NOAA, writes that AMO can amplify anthropogenic warming in warm phase and make it disappear in cold phase. According to NOAA, AMO is a naturally occurring change in North Atlantic temperature that has occurred for at least 1000 years with alternating warm and cold phases for 20-40 years. Add to that the weakening of solar radiation since 2008, and further significant warming beyond 1.5 degrees is unlikely in the next 30 years.
Sea ice melt has stalled
The trend of stagnation in temperature that has been observed for several years can also be seen in the halting decline in Arctic sea ice levels reported by European Copernicus Program in March (see next chart
This is really good news.
Is it time for climate researchers to bring these trends to the attention of politicians and the general public? After all, politicians are now adjusting the priorities of the energy supply. While until the end price boom of the year and consequences of the war in Ukraine Obviously it has been assumed that climate impacts will be the sole determinant of energy policy, we are all now aware of the importance of ensuring supply security and trends price.
However, German policymakers are still reacting in a disingenuous manner. They believe they can solve the shortage of self-generated energy due to the two-phase elimination of coal and nuclear power by simply building more wind farms and solar power plants. It should always be remembered that by 2021, the share of wind and solar energy will be just over 5% in primary energy supplies (oil, gas, coal, nuclear, renewables). Even in a good windy year, it won’t be more than 6%.
Politicians don’t have the courage needed to repeal the decommissioning law, stop denuclearization, lift the natural gas extraction order and the ban on CO2 capture at coal-fired power plants. Not yet.
Gas-fired power plants like the one in Leipzig is still under construction to replace coal-fired power plants with domestic lignite. The industry has gone further. Volkswagen has postponed the conversion of two of its coal-fired power plants into gas-fired power plants indefinitely. This statement by CEO Diess was not widely reported in Germany, but it was abroad.
The US government is also repositioning itself. John Kerry, the US government’s climate envoy, for whom the 1.5-degree target was previously the sole political guide, is now putting things into perspective and in view of rising energy prices. leap, say 1.8 degrees is quite enough as a target. China, India and Southeast Asia, whose growth paths are threatened by price booms, are having a coal production renaissance.
That is where we should listen as Jochem Marotzke of the Max Planck Institute of Meteorology in Hamburg says: “It’s not realistic to bring global emissions to zero by 2050… a 2.5-degree world is still better than a 3.5-degree world. ”
Let us reassure Mr. Marotzke: a 2.5-degree world will be unattainable this century because natural variations in climate reduce anthropogenic warming. If this were fully accounted for in climate models, we wouldn’t all suffer from public panic and flawed policy decisions.
With best wishes
Fritz Vahrenholt
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