Europe has stood firm with Ukraine since the war began – but Italian elections and a tough winter could change things quickly | World News
The ripples of war spread quickly. Over the past six months, those ripples have spread from Ukraine and affected politics around the world – but not more so in Europe.
Some of those effects are obvious. The war, to be sure, led to a wave of people fleeing Ukraine and seeking refuge in other countries.
Poland immediately opened its doors to refugees and is now home to one and a quarter million Ukrainians. Just under a million people currently live in Germany.
Live updates of the Ukraine war
Six months since the war began, nearly nine million people have crossed the border out of Ukraine. Notably, however, there were more than 4.75 million crossings in the other direction.
Some of these are workers, journalists, or warriors. But most are Ukrainians who have decided to return home.
And that reinforces one of the lessons that have survived from this conflict – that Ukrainians have an extraordinary degree of resilience. I remember being in the West of the country after the war started, and witnessing the huge queues at the recruitment centers. Around the alley, we met young men who drove through the night to supply soldiers.
I also remember meeting a young mother who ran away with her children and chatting with us about her pride in her country and her husband, who had stayed home in Kharkiv to fight. fight. She was exhausted, but got goosebumps when we offered to buy her a drink. She said she could buy her own food and would go home as soon as she could.
War brought a sense of unity to the European Union. It rushes through new regulations, giving Ukrainian refugees the right to reside in the EU for three years. It sent weapons and money, flexed its diplomatic muscles and seemed to discover a sense of coordinated purpose that had long proved elusive.
And, for the most part, a sense of unifying purpose has been around for a long time. Europe, when standing with Ukraine, exudes a pride that they have not shown for many years.
Please use Chrome browser for more accessible video player
Sky’s Adam Parsons stayed with refugees in Lviv in the early days of the war
There have been problems – Germany has been slow to provide useful military supplies and has received much criticism for its reliance on Russian energy in the past. Emmanuel Macron’s attempts to negotiate personally with Vladimir Putin, at times look very innocent. But the Franco-German axis, on which the EU is currently rotating, remains steadfast in its determination to support Ukraine.
But there are cracks and in the last six months they can widen. Take Hungary, for example, a member state of the EU, but also a country led by a nationalist prime minister who has long cultivated close ties with Russia.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban lobbied for softer sanctions
Hungary lobbies for sanctions to be eased, arguing that restricting Russian energy imports harms buyers more than sellers. That is the call being made by other populist politicians, from Marine Le Pen in France, who describes sanctions as “futile”, to Matteo Salvini in Italy – a step-by-step politician entered the European Parliament wearing a T-shirt with Putin’s face.
Next month, Italy holds a general election and Mr Salvini will most likely become part of the winning coalition. The Kremlin is involved in a domestic disinformation campaign and it may be working. Opinion polls show that, of all Europeans, Italians are more likely to blame someone other than Russia for the war.
The odds are that the biggest party in the Italian election will become the Brotherhood of Italy, led by Giorgia Meloni. So far, she has said she will maintain national support for action in Ukraine and oppose Putin.
Leader of Italy’s far-right Brotherhood Party Giorgia Meloni
Read more: Rape video shared by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni removed by Twitter
But if that stance changes, even slightly, in Russia’s favor, then alarm bells will sound. For example, there are supporters of a truce allocating Ukrainian land to Russia. Unbelievable to many, not only in Ukraine, but suitable for those in Hungary, Italy and beyond, who want to have decent relations with Mr. Putin when things settle down.
The truth is that no one is in favor of some kind of cozy friendship with Russia. But there are people – Viktor Orban, Mrs. Le Pen, Mr. Salvini – who insist that the pain is not worth it. And these are politicians with great support.
Beyond EU borders, the war seems to be raising other problems – Serbia, a close ally of Russia, is raising tensions in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo. Countries in the Western Balkans complain that they have patiently pursued EU membership for more than a decade, but are now worried that Ukraine has taken the lead in the queue.
A police officer stands by an arch of sunflowers in front of 10 Downing Street.
Read more: Gasoline price spike threatens big trouble for Europe
And, of course, rising energy costs affect economies everywhere. The harder life is, the more it is argued that sanctions do more harm than good.
A senior source told me this week: “Every time someone mentions fatigue or sanctions fatigue, Putin does something brutal and the questions go away.” But what if that doesn’t happen? What if the question of fatigue was allowed to linger?
Europe has been adamant for six months, but so has Mr. Putin. As the weather turns colder, bills rise and wars continue, Europe’s sense of settlement and camaraderie will be threatened. The question is whether it will hold.
