EPA lab helps plan fastest path to electric future

ANN ARBOR, MI — Inside a secret government laboratory, behind high fences and armed guards, a team of engineers dissected the internals of all-electric vehicles latest with a single goal: Rewrite exhaust pollution rules to accelerate the nation’s transition to electric cars.

Early next week, the Environmental Protection Agency is expected to propose ambitious greenhouse gas emissions standards for cars so stringent that they are designed to ensure that at least half of New vehicles sold in the United States are all-electric by 2030, up from only 5.8 percent Today. And the rules could put the country on track to end sales of new gasoline-powered cars as soon as 2035.

Transportation is the largest source of greenhouse gases produced by the United States, and scientists say cutting exhaust pollution — quickly — is essential to stopping it. the most dire impact of global warming.

But that also requires overcoming a myriad of technical and logistical challenges: electric vehicles are still too expensive for most consumers, in part because of the global supply chain for the materials to build them. . The cars also need a national network among millions of easy-to-use fast charging stations.

The work that took place in the EPA’s automotive research lab puts it at the heart of one of the most complex balancing acts facing President Biden. He has pledged to fight climate change, and gasoline-burning cars are the main source of pollution that is warming the planet. But auto manufacturing is one of the nation’s most important industries, and the rapid transition to electric vehicles, which require less labor to produce, is likely to replace thousands of auto workersBiden’s key constituency.

“This is the biggest transformation the auto industry has ever seen, as it transitions from 100 years of exhaust pollution,” said David Haugen, Director of the EPA’s National Fuel and Vehicle Emissions Laboratory. to electric cars — and a whole new way to drive . .

“Anything can stop that from happening,” he said, acknowledging the challenges of building charging stations, creating domestic supply chains and lowering prices. “Any of those things could make adoption difficult. All pieces must be there.

test limit

But to do that, experts at the EPA lab must first determine how far electric vehicle technology will evolve over the next decade, to help the agency set the strongest emissions limit still possible. achieve.

To that end, government experts in technology, chemistry, toxicology and law at the lab worked with engineers from The world’s largest car companies. They disassembled and tested the internals of new and not-yet-marketed Teslas, GMs, Volkswagens and Nissans to find out which existing technology could go the furthest and fastest; which is the strongest and most durable; and equipped with the most affordable technology. Different car models have different strengths, the researchers say — no one automaker has all the components of an electric vehicle with a wide range, muscle, family-friendly, price. affordable.

They drove electric cars on giant treadmills continuously, in 12-hour shifts, to see how many miles they could go on a single charge. They heated the cars to nearly 100 degrees and then froze them overnight to assess battery life. They ran hours of computer simulations.

“Watching these technologies gives us a lot of confidence that this is possible,” said Haugen. “This regulation will help all automakers move as fast as possible so we can tackle climate change urgently.”

One factor weighing on the administration is the effect the new exhaust limits could have on jobs, like those at Ford’s centuries-old Rouge manufacturing complex, a few miles from the EPA experiment about 40 miles east.

There, auto workers and their union leaders worry about what the upcoming regulation will mean for their futures. They have good reason: electric cars need less than half the workers to assemble than internal combustion engine cars.

“We knew we were going to lose our jobs at some point,” said Mark DePaoli, a vice president of United Autoworkers Local 600, during a recent interview at the local headquarters near the Ford plant in Dearborn.

To understand what is at stake, compare the chassis of the Ford F-150 pickup truck — best selling passenger car in the United States — with an all-electric version, both built at the Rouge complex. The gas-powered F-150 consists of thousands of small metal parts and pieces and is assembled by 4,200 workers in a conventional truck factory. The all-electric Ford F-150 is essentially a giant battery attached to an engine and wheels built by around 720 workers on the side, at Rouge . Tram Center.

As the transition from gasoline to all-electric accelerates, one of the roughly 150,000 consolidated auto jobs nationally that could be lost could go to Steve Noffke, who built the internal combustion engine. for Ford for 25 years.

“I’m not against electric cars, don’t get me wrong,” said Mr. Noffke, 69. “If this transition happens, we understand that.; Most of us have gone through transitions before. But we as workers don’t need to pay for it.”

Mr. Noffke noted that his industry has seen many disruptions so far. The 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement created thousands of auto manufacturing jobs for Mexico. The 2008 financial crisis pushed automakers to the brink of collapse. Advances in automation continue to replace humans with robots.

In Dearborn, the scars from some of those dislocations are still evident in vacant factories, an abandoned Payless Shoes store, a closed Brown’s Bun bakery.

But the changes brought about by electric vehicles are far more jarring, Mr. “We’ve never seen anything like what’s going to happen,” he said.

Angela Powell, 46, a forklift driver in Ford’s electric vehicle assembly plant, could emerge as one of the winners in the new auto scene.

Ms. Powell, who worked on the assembly line at Ford’s conventional truck plant, said: “Being from the old building and seeing new vehicles, cutting-edge technology, is amazing. “Who would have thought we would be here at this point? It was an interesting time.

However, Ms. Powell worries about what will happen if change is not well managed. If the government tries to effectively end the sale of new gasoline-powered cars by 2035, what will happen if consumers don’t buy electric cars? What if they’re too expensive or don’t have enough charging stations or supply chain disruptions slow down production?

“If this doesn’t go well, do I have work to do the next day?” she speaks.

Another concern is that many new electric vehicle factories and battery plants are opening in Southeast states like Georgia, Alabama and Tennessee, where a political culture has historically been hostile to organized labor, and wages and benefits are often lower than in unionized factories.

“If you go to one of these startups, or even a Ford factory, where it’s not union work, you’re going to have to make a lot of economic sacrifices,” Noffke said. economic.

A self-proclaimed “auto mechanic,” Biden enjoys visiting auto factories, including the Ford plant where Mrs. Powell works and where Mr. Biden drives an electric F-150 to spin and make announcements. : “This bastard is fast.”

Mr. Biden was equally delighted in his relationship with organized labor, calling himself the most pro-unionist of his predecessors. That connection to the auto workers helped Biden take over Michigan in 2020, after the state backed Donald J. Trump in 2016. Labor support will be crucial if Mr. Biden is re-elected. elected in 2024.

Now, Mr. Biden is trying to maintain his position with union workers while also taking action on climate change, an issue he calls a top priority. He has promised to cut US greenhouse gas pollution in at least 50% by 2030.

The International Energy Agency’s 2021 report found that countries would have to stop selling new gasoline-powered cars by 2035 to keep average global temperatures from rising 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels . Beyond that point, scientists say, the effects of catastrophic heatwaves, floods, droughts, crop failures and species extinction become significantly harder on humanity. The planet has warmed by an average of 1.1 degrees Celsius.

“There’s a vision of the future that’s now starting to happen, a future of electric cars – battery electric, plug-in hybrid, fuel-cell electric,” Biden said in 2021 when he announced. announced an executive order calling for federal policies to ensure that half of all new cars sold will be all-electric by 2030.

The The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 offers a tax credit of up to $7,500 for electric vehicle buyers. But incentives alone won’t be enough to meet the president’s climate goals, experts say, which is why new EPA regulations are needed.

Drew Kodjak, executive director of the International Council on Clean Transport, a research organization, said: “Nothing else guarantees the transition to electric vehicles at the speed we need to tackle. global warming problem.

California, home to the nation’s largest auto market, has adopted a Ban on sales of new internal combustion engine vehicles after 2035. Several officials working on the new federal regulation have done similar climate work in California.

But despite Mr Biden’s pledge, the transition to an all-electric future carries political and economic risks.

Representative Debbie Dingell, a Michigan Democrat whose region includes more than a dozen auto assembly plants as well as the EPA’s auto lab, frequently reminds Ali Zaidi, the senior climate adviser for the EPA. White House, on the complexity of the situation.

Mr. Zaidi talks to Ms. Dinell so often that she is listed simply as “DD” on his cell phone.

“I’ve had really sincere conversations with the president and he understands what these workers are afraid of,” said Ms. Dingell, a former CEO of General Motors. “We have to make sure there’s a policy platform to be able to achieve something like this without hurting people.”

Mr Biden has worked to ensure that only US-made electric cars are eligible for the tax incentives offered by the Inflation Reduction Act – despite the requirement that they be assembled by workers. unions were abolished.

In 2022, Mr. Biden signed another law provides subsidies to companies to produce semiconductor chips for their electric vehicles in U.S.A. And in 2021, he signed an infrastructure bill that includes $7.5 billion to build half a million electric vehicle charging stations along interstate highways, though January report from S&P Global concluded that the nation would need millions more.

“There’s too much risk in not doing this right,” Ms Dinell said. “But it’s a very difficult balance.”