If Terry McAuliffe wins, Democrats will take the victory as validation {that a} state that has trended blue over the past decade nonetheless stands behind President Biden’s agenda and towards Republicans, even when former President Trump isn’t on the poll.
Historical past isn’t on Democrats’ aspect: For the reason that Seventies, the winner of Virginia’s off-year gubernatorial election has almost at all times come from the get together in opposition to the White Home. The one exception was in 2013, when McAuliffe gained his first gubernatorial time period a 12 months after then-President Barack Obama gained reelection.
However even when McAuliffe wins a good race, the consequence may spell warning indicators for Democrats in Washington, given Biden’s 10-point victory there simply final 12 months and the truth that the get together in energy typically loses seats within the subsequent midterms.
Democrats had hoped McAuliffe would be capable of run on a efficiently handed infrastructure package deal from the Biden administration, however continuous delays on Capitol Hill and Democratic infighting made the prospect of a deal earlier than Nov. 2 unlikely, one thing that McAuliffe has used to lambast Congress.
“I say: Do your job,” he mentioned earlier final month. “You bought elected to Congress. We within the states are determined for this infrastructure cash. … We want assist out right here within the states, and folks elected you to do your job.”
And whereas he has publicly argued the invoice is extra vital for the individuals of Virginia than for his political fortunes, his aides and advisers have privately frightened that dysfunction in Washington may spill into their race, particularly within the vote-rich Northern Virginia suburbs.
For Glenn Youngkin, a win would reverberate far past Virginia — the place a Republican has not gained statewide in 12 years — and ship the GOP a jolt of momentum heading into 2022. And whereas every marketing campaign is completely different and Youngkin, who got here into the race as largely a clean slate with limitless cash, is a singular determine, a attainable win would validate his technique of lauding Trump at occasions whereas additionally maintaining him at arm’s size.
“No matter whether or not or not he wins … it appears to be like like Youngkin is exhibiting Republicans that they do not must be wedded to Trump,” mentioned Doug Heye, a Republican marketing consultant who beforehand served as the highest spokesperson on the Republican Nationwide Committee. “Positive, they do not wish to cross him and alienate his base. However, particularly with Biden’s low numbers and McAuliffe’s vulnerabilities on issues like schooling, Republicans can play on Democrats’ area. That is step one in placing Trump within the rearview mirror.”
Whereas there are some doubts amongst Republicans that the technique may work in federal races, Heye says that as a result of “all politics are nationwide now,” points that have been as soon as hyper-local “can be talked about up and down the poll.”
The 2021 races are additionally the primary time that voters have the chance to solid their ballots early with out an excuse for having to take action after the Democratic-led state modified election legal guidelines. In response to the Virginia Division of Elections, greater than 734,000 Virginians have solid ballots already.
Conversations with McAuliffe and Youngkin supporters have proven a similarity in how every is approaching the race: Each are frightened that wins by their opponents would flip Virginia right into a vastly completely different form of place. Democrats have instructed CNN repeatedly {that a} Youngkin win would flip Virginia right into a Republican-dominated state like Georgia, Texas or Florida, whereas Republicans have overtly frightened {that a} McAuliffe win would flip the commonwealth into California.
If McAuliffe wins, “we’re going to head down the trail we’re already happening with Biden,” mentioned Wanda Schweiger, a 61-year-old Youngkin supporter. “And it’s a sinking ship.”
Stacey Abrams, a former gubernatorial candidate in Georgia and a voting rights activist, made that case on to voters over the weekend.
“If you wish to determine what may occur to you if you do not get out and vote, choose up a newspaper that talks about Georgia. If you wish to know what occurs in 9 days, if we do not get out and vote, taking a look at what’s happening in Texas,” she mentioned. “If you wish to know what occurs to Virginia, if we do not vote, in case you do not prove on November the 2nd, then keep in mind what you felt like in November of 2016.”
