Daniel Berger worked to build a seemingly insurmountable lead at the Honda Classic last week. 5-stroke advantage with only 18 holes to play, at least in recent history, was impregnated with defeat – but all of that fell apart before his final lap was halfway through. Not only did Berger become the first of the last eight PGA Tour players to hold a 5-stroke 54-hole lead and not win, he didn’t even finish second or third.
After his gruesome 74 in the final that consisted of just one shot over 29 inches long, Berger made the day a success for what all greats with bad days strive for. : golf.
“Today was a good learning experience,” says Berger. “I was prepared and ready to play well today, and I just didn’t hit the shots that I needed to hit. That’s how golf is. There are so many people hitting great shots these days, and that’s why they won the golf tournament. It’s unfortunate, but that’s the game.”
I tend to agree with the player in situations like this, especially when that player has a good track record and good winning history. But I’m curious if there’s something more to Berger. Statistically speaking, he’s as good as they come. Almost any period you want to watch since the start of 2020 includes Berger as a top 10 player in the world and most of them have him as a top 5 player. This is a sample.
- Since the beginning of 2020: ranked 4th in terms of number of strokes
- Since the reboot in 2020 (June): 4
- From the beginning of 2021: Tuesday
Since golf restarting amid the COVID-19 pandemic at the Charles Schwab Challenge in June 2020, Berger has only two wins – including one that week – but has 14 wins. in the top 10 and top 10 ratings rank him fourth in the world with Justin Thomas, behind Jon Rahm, Collin Morikawa and Dustin Johnson.
No matter how you divide it, Berger golfs at the level that the best players in the world play. The area he frequents, at least statistically, is teeming with major champions, Ryder Cuppers, and people whose minor golf events bear their name.
However, there is a nagging feeling that perhaps Berger is not getting as many wins as he should be. The collection of four players I mentioned earlier (Rahm, Morikawa, Thomas and Johnson) who top 10 equal or better than Berger, have an average of 3.75 wins in the same span and all they all have at least one win better than either of Berger’s.
Yes some info from Data Golf that would also support this theory. Over the course of his career, Berger played the last 20 rounds, in which he was in the top 5 on the record going into the last 18 holes. His expected win value at the start of those last rounds was 2.37, but based on his performance in the last round, his expected win value was reduced to 1 .83 (he won two of them). In other words, he didn’t help himself much in the final rounds when he played.
This implies that he did not rise to the occasion, broadly speaking. The most severe of these cases came over the weekend at the Honda Classic. Those numbers aren’t out yet, but when they do, they’ll be ugly.
This goes against what we think when we think of Berger. The image I had in my mind was a threat that never quits, doesn’t care, never backs down and never fades. It’s a fun hero pattern and it’s easy to project on Berger, who’s always smug “I’ll attack you until you don’t know what tour you’re on” look.
Berger’s conclusions, as usual in golf, were mixed. There needs to be a greater appreciation for the work he’s done over the past 25 months because I guess casual golf fans don’t have “Daniel Berger” on the tip of their tongue when you ask who in No. 5 best players in the world were (statistics).
But we may also need to defuse the stereotype that Berger is the one who fanned the flames closer. He can, sure, and his background backs it up. But he has also failed in some “time to turn it off” situations like he did on Sunday at the PGA National. That doesn’t change his trajectory or chances, but it should be held in tension with all that he has done throughout his career.
