Maybe it’s my writing NFL Draft Football’s mind raced forward, or perhaps I was watching too much UFL.
Either way, I’m super excited for the start of 2024 College football season, and I’m willing to bet.
Luckily, sportsbooks are on the same page and have released some early lines for Week 1 of the upcoming season.
Here are three games I’ll be watching throughout the first weekend of college football.
Let’s dive in.
Well, I’m fading out the Wolverine in this one, so let’s get to the why.
First, let’s look at the starters on the field.
Fresno State ranks 52nd in total starting return production in 2024, including returning quarterbacks Mikey Keene. He is a good athlete and executes Jeff Tedford’s offense well. Additionally, the Bulldogs return multiple starting offensive linemen, their two top rushers and their second-most productive wide receiver.
On the other hand, the defense doesn’t have many starters, but that team played poorly last season, so that’s probably for the best.
Now let’s look at the Michigan side.
Michigan ranks 128th out of 134 FBS teams in returning production. This is not surprising, as the national championship team was filled with NFL players, including many athletes selected in the first three rounds.
The Wolverines must replace their quarterback and six offensive linemen. Their top two returning receiving targets had a combined 35 catches last season.
Fortunately, Michigan regained its strength on defense, with the interior defensive line and one of its top corners moving back. However, I think the lack of production again is a concern, which is why I don’t think UM will cover the spread in this first game.
I’m worried – and I think Michigan is too – about playing the backfield position by JJ McCarthy depart for the NFL. It could take a few weeks for a starter to get entrenched in that position, so as a bettor, I’d take advantage of that in Week 1.
We could see an emotional letdown in this game as Michigan ended up winning the national championship. Most of the team has left and the head coach is no more.
No, I don’t believe Michigan lost this game; Big Blue is more talented and more physical than Fresno. But give me points.
PICK: Fresno State (+22) loses by less than 22 points (or wins overall)
Expectations for Ohio State, Colorado upcoming season
LSU Tigers compare to USC Trojans
USC is in the process of rebuilding its roster and the Trojans are facing another difficult season.
They have to replace the star QB Caleb Williamsand while SC doesn’t have a Williams-type guy on the roster, I do expect Lincoln Riley to get production from either Moss Miller or transfer Jayden Maiava.
My concern continues to be its offensive line, which is just average. USC doesn’t have the talent at the skill position that Riley has Oklahoma and that limits the offense’s explosiveness when Williams isn’t there. The Trojans were facing an LSU defense that was poor last season but brought a lot of production, with some additional depth the Tigers got through the gate. LSU’s defense will make things difficult for USC’s offense in this game.
So how does LSU handle the touchdown problem in this game? It does this with its attack line. That unit is elite.
It has two tackles that will be in the top 50 in 2025. That’s right, they have to replace Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers And Brian Thomas Jr.But when your offensive line is this good, the transition is much easier.
Remember, USC’s defense was embarrassingly bad last season. I don’t think it will be that bad in 2024, as the Trojans have beefed up their personnel and added players at linebacker and defensive back through the portal.
But SC’s defense continues to be small and has no pass rush. That wouldn’t be good for a team like LSU.
I like the Tigers to win by at least a touchdown.
PICK: LSU (-6) won by more than 6 points
Ohio State, Michigan, Utah highlight top 25 after Joel Klatt’s spring
North Dakota state bison @ Colorado buffalo
A lot of people are going to make this the particularly unpleasant event of Week 1, and I’m here to throw water on that fiery affair.
The general trend is that FCS teams like North Dakota State have beaten FBS Power 5 teams when the FBS team is terrible on offense.
Stanford lose Sac state last season, northwest ARRIVE Southern Illinois in 2022, Washington was embarrassed on July 13 at home by Montana in 2021, etc. The formula is typically a lower-scoring game controlled by FCS teams, while FBS teams can’t get ahead.
But Colorado can score against North Dakota State.
The Buffaloes are too talented at quarterback and at the skill positions to make the Bison defense slow them down. There wasn’t a single person on that defense team who could watch Hunter Travis around the yard. State returns nine starters on defense, including several defensive linemen who led them last season. But that won’t be enough because Shedeur Sanders Is that good, and he alone will make things difficult for Bison.
Otherwise, I don’t know what Colorado’s defense will look like, but we do know that whatever that unit looks like, it will be more athletic than the Bison offense.
Give me Buff for protection.
PICK: Colorado (-7) wins by more than 7 points
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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