By Andy May
My CO Criticized Climate Response Website2Joint post “Global warming is man-made.” Their reality check is this. Like most “fact checks” these days, it’s a thinly disguised piece of opinion. The statement they consider incorrect is:
“There is no evidence, other than models, that human CO2 emissions drive climate change, and evidence is abundant that the Sun, along with natural climate cycles, drives most, if not all, of recent climate changes, as described in Connolly, et al., 2021.” [emphasis added]
They cleverly omitted the last phrase: “as described in Connolly, et al., 2021,” and then immediately asserted that “Solar radiation has had a negligible impact on Earth’s climate since industrial era”. This is followed by no other evidence than a call for mythical “consensus”.
Later in the paper, they say Connolly, et al. used simple linear regression to establish the relationship between solar radiation and surface temperature. Connolly, et al. does not say that the Sun controls the climate or that humans do, it simply suggests that, using the available evidence, the solar variability (actually TSI, or total variability of radiation) solar) could account for anywhere from 0 to 100% of the warming since the Ice Age (known as the “pre-industrial” era). One of the main points of Connolly, et al. is the IPCC and the so-called “consensus” is ignoring two important areas of research today. First, they ignore the uncertainty in our estimate of surface warming since the Little Ice Age, and second, they ignore significant uncertainty in long-term trends. of the sun, both recently and since the Little Ice Age. As they stated in the article, the amount of 20order Centennial warming can be simulated due to solar variability, depending on the surface temperature data set and the solar TSI model used. There are versions of both. Suffice it to say, while the exact influence of human activities and sun variability on climate change is unknown, no one can say for certain that the sun’s influence is trivial. The exact answer is we don’t know.
In their Climate Response field test, Figure 1 shows the IPCC preferred TSI reconstruction, which is the empirical PMOD reconstruction. The reproduction of PMOD was created by the late Judith Lean and Claus Fröhlich by data adjustment to match their solar model, it’s not from the best satellite data, like ACRIM is more accurate model, showing that long-term variation in solar irradiance could explain some of the 20order century of surface warming.
Read the rest at the CO2Coalition website this.