Choosing between Bengals vs. Chiefs, prediction versus spread: Why Cincinnati will advance to Super Bowl 56

The captain will host his fourth consecutive AFC championship game against his fourth opponent when they face the Bengals (3pm ET, CBS) on Sunday. Kansas City opens as a favorite with 7 points (over/under 54.5 points), according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

The game was a rematch of the Week 17 match in Cincinnati, beating Bengal by a comeback, 34-31. There will be another shootout in store as the elite young quarterback quartet Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow duel for the second time.

Here’s the full breakdown of the Bengals vs Chiefs matchup for the AFC 2022 Championship, including our pick to win and reach Super Bowl 56.

NFL POWER RANKINGS:
3 Reasons Chiefs, 49ers, Rams, Bengals Will (And Won’t) Win Super Bowl 56

Bengals vs. Picks, Predictions. Chiefs

• The Bengals’ offensive versus the Chiefs’ defense

Burrow has been a hit in the past five warm-ups, evolving into the latest MVP contender on the Returning Player of the Year standings. He has long-running urgent help from Joe Mixon, ending his best season when the Bengals feature returns. They also have a great wide recording trio of dynamic rookies Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgns and Tyler Boyd.

The Bengal boggart has been crossed. Burrow was fired 51 times in the regular season and nine times last week against the Titans. But when Burrow has time to get into an aggressive, frequent game of passing, he can pick out seven coverages. Mixon faced a tough game against the Titans last week and is still looking great. The Chiefs were not stout in that regard among the front seven and also developed many secondary concerns with the injuries associated with the Bill of Exchange.

Kansas City will be flashy in nature but also doesn’t want to be burned by big plays from Burrow to Chase. The problem is, Chase is also dangerous after the catch and Higgins can stretch the field out too. Boyd in the slot, Mixon off the field and CJ Uzomah from close range are comfortable alternatives to Burrow in getting the ball out quickly. The captain had Chris Jones and other influential players, but they couldn’t slow Josh Allen’s throws across the pitch last week. Burrow will have more success in the long run after throwing 446 yards than Chiefs the first time.

Advantage: Bengals

• Chief Offense vs. Defense of Bengals

The Bengals had a quick advance led by heads Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard. They can block the run pretty well with DJ Reader as the pin of their inner defence. They have dynamic young defenders Logan Wilson and Germaine Pratt. Chidobe Awuzie and Eli Apple exceeded expectations as full-backs on the outside, while the safety of Jessie Bates III and full-back Mike Hilton’s position stood out on the inside.

All that being said, they have enough issues in pass coverage and may not be suitable for runs, cram some but also give up chunky plays. There’s enough there for Mahomes to exploit. The Bengals will defend against big play with the look of the area but also mix it up with heavy fouls. Mahomes has evolved where either will suit him, either being patient with shorter serves and throws or letting it rip through the court compared to one-on-one.

The Bengals struggled to cover tight endings so that Travis Kelce could have a hard time with them. Tireek Hill’s speed of stretching and quickness after catching the ball is also a concern. They held for a total of 11 65-yard catches and TDs on 17 goals in Week 17. That’s not going to happen again. Leaders should also feel confident that they can last longer.

Advantage: Chief

Boyd and Uzomah are good places to start for Bengalis. Chase kills Chiefs everywhere in Week 17 with 11 catches, 266 yards, and 3 TDs. The Bengali can anticipate his massive attention (just as the Chiefs have given Stefon Diggs) and Burrow will prefer his matches develop elsewhere.

The Chiefs have their own key additional offensive skill players, such as backrun Jerick McKinnon, wide receiver Byron Pringle and Mecole Hardman and even backup tight endings Noah Gray and Blake Bell.

The team that gets a big game from one of those players (Gabriel Davis, a big recipient of la Bills, lighting up the Captain) wins. The Chiefs also have wrinkles of trick plays from interesting lineups. However, the Bengali have more strikers to count on.

THAN: AFC, the NFC championship game straight away

Advantage: Bengals

The teams whose strikers are the Bengals’ rookie Evan McPherson and the captain’s veteran Harrison Butker. The punting games are also pretty good with Kevin Huber and Tommy Townsend. The coordinators, Dave Toub and Darrin Simmons, have a wealth of experience. But the Chiefs have an advantage here because of their HIll usage on the main profits.

Advantage: Chief

Andy Reid is 63 years old and a future Hall of Famer. Zac Taylor is 38 years old with his first playoff appearance. Reid has a more seasoned staff with Toub, Eric Bieniemy and Steve Spagnuolo. Taylor was assisted in the attack by Brian Callahan, just 37 years old, and defended by Lou Anarumo, 55. Reid’s experience is hard to rely on, though Taylor has proven he’s a budding fringe star.

Advantage: Chief

The leaders are an energetic and experienced team. They were prepared for these big game situations with Mahomes. But the Bengalis have been building great momentum and playing with solid confidence. Burrow shares the same championship pedigree as Mahomes and his team is playing house money. The Bengalis will come to Kansas City motivated to surprise and remain gritty and fearless. The Grandmasters need to prepare a party on the way to attack. They will also be tired of playing overtime on Sunday while the Bengals play early on Saturday.

Advantage: Bengals

Predict the AFC championship match

Burrow vs. Mahomes will help the team to play bigger in passing play and control the ball effectively when needed. While Mahomes will be tasked with delivering more big playoff numbers, Burrow is a worthy opponent and the Bengals have better defensive play overall, including forcing important lessons to be learned. Kansas City will do their best to put pressure on Burrow, but that’s just a defensive asset. Cincinnati delivers another shock to advance to the Super Bowl for the first time in 33 years.

Bengals 38, Chiefs 34