By J. Keeler Johnson (“Keelerman”) Twitter: @J_Keelerman
In the weeks and months after the Triple Crown, it’s fun to ride around the country with smaller odds for three-year-olds, often attracting alumni from the Triple Crown and/or Road to Kentucky Derby.
That’s why this week we’re turning our attention to the $200,000 Dwyer S. (G3) in Belmont Park. It’s not the biggest or most competitive race of the week, but the six-horse field is dotted with talented names, and you never will when a Dwyer winner can step up and win. 1st Place bets during the summer. Reality Joke (2017) and Code of Honor (2019) have hit that mark in recent years, winning H. Allen Jerkens S. (G1) and Travers S. (G1) in Saratoga, respectively.
In terms of achievements to date, #5 Fort Bragg is the horse to beat in 2023 Dwyer. Tapit’s son finished third in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) last fall, but weakened to fifth as he entered the tougher San Felipe S. (G2) and Florida Derby (G1) . In the second run, Fort Bragg was behind the two-year-old Forte men’s champion and the next winner of the Kentucky Derby (G1) Mage.
Cutting back one mile at a time for the Pat Day Mile (G2) at Churchill Downs triggered the best career performance from Fort Bragg. After racing close to steady pace, Fort Bragg took control of the far corner, only to weaken a bit in the final race and finish second to General Jim.
Fort Bragg enters Dwyer after sharp workouts and should appreciate one-mile compliance. But at this point, Fort Bragg seems to have found his niche as a Rank 2/Rank 3 miller. Except for the addition of a flash (which he wore during his first win). last fall) significantly improves, Fort Bragg seems to have less of an advantage than #2 Arab Crownwho could certainly be a Class 1 winner in the process of becoming two-time Eclipse Award-winning coach Brad Cox.
The son of the 2017 Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming, the Saudi Crown is unbeaten in two starts. He debuted in the six-seater special weight class at Keeneland in the spring and tracked a steady pace before showing clearly in the final game to score 4 3/4 of the length. . Third place finisher, Briterdayzahead, returned straight away to win the Churchill Downs special girl weight and an Ellis Park grant.
After that, Saudi Crown promoted 6 1/2 at Churchill Downs and successfully switched to the catch-up strategy, leading through the scores: 22.37, :45.01 and 1:09, 34 to beat Sweet Cherry Pie by 1 3/4 length in a quick time of 1:15.88. Sweet Cherry Pie had previously beaten older horses in Keeneland’s special maiden weight class.
The Saudi Crown’s first two wins produced Brisnet Speed ratings of 101 and 95, a lot higher than the 100 Fort Bragg posted on the Pat Day Mile. His pedigree suggests that running more than a mile won’t matter, as does his running style — while the Saudi Crown is tactical enough to stick around and even take the lead in sprints, the initial fractions he posted represent more of a talented runner than a pure sprinter.
In short, I’m willing to bet that the Saudi Crown’s talent and optimism will conquer the Fort Bragg experience and lead to victory in Dwyer.
In addition to two favorites, #3 Harrodsburg was a reasonable candidate after battling Aqueduct’s special girls weights and finishing second by nose in the Belmont Park allowance. Both of those contests ran for 6 and a half minutes and yielded a promising 96 Brisnet Speed ratings, making Harrodsburg a contender to break the Dwyer trio.
But don’t miss it #6 Joey Soft Drink for a spot in the top three. If you draw a line through his misfire on the pitch at Paradise Creek S. last time, his form is solid. Three back-to-back starts, he used speed-tracking tactics to win the Aqueduct’s seven-mile Bay Shore S. (G3) with a quarter of the length of Gilmore, who finished third. in Pat Day Mile and Woody Stephens S. (G1) . And twice starting again, Joey Freshwater finished third in Belmont’s Gold Fever S. behind Drew’s Gold, future runner-up in Woody Stephens.
Stretching over a mile is uncharted territory for Joey Freshwater, but judging from the company he’s holding, he’s a great fit in the Dwyer field and has every opportunity to run well for the coaching duo. hot horse trainer/runner Jose Ortiz and Linda Rice. According to Brisnet stats, they have teamed up to win by 31% over the past two months.
Select
1st place: #2 Arab Crown
Monday: #5 Fort Bragg
Tuesday: #6 Joey Soft Drink
Wednesday: #3 Harrodsburg
Now it’s your turn! Who in Dwyer do you like?
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as “Keelerman”) is a writer, cinematographer, voice actor, disabled athlete, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A huge fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager the greatest racehorse ever made in America, but considers Zenyatta his all-time favorite.
