China’s birth rate in 2020 has just hit another record low. But the worst is yet to come

news7g12/01/2021

3 5 minutes read

China's birth rate in 2020 has just hit another record low. But the worst is yet to come

The birth rate, now down to single digits, is the latest worrisome sign of China’s deepening population crisis, as the country of 1.4 billion people begins to lost its youthful look.

The country’s decade-long National Census in May said just 12 million babies were born last year – down 18% from 14.65 million in 2019.

Demographers have long predicted China will begin to decline in its population in the coming decades, however, some experts now fear it could come much sooner than expected.

“From our preliminary forecast based on provisional data, (in 2021), it is very likely to be around or even around,” said James Liang, professor of economic studies at Peking University in Beijing. less than 10 million births”.

“And of course, with that number, the biggest news will be that China is probably in a state of population decline.”

Liang is not the only expert with such concerns. He Yafu, an independent demographer in Guangzhou, wrote on social media last month that “China’s population will most likely grow negative in 2021.”

In May, following the results of the national census, He predicted China’s population would begin to decline in 2022. “But now, I think my forecast from half a year ago is too far-fetched. mandarin,” he wrote.

China wants families with three children. But many women are not convinced

Based on the most recent data released by local governments in China, He predicts the number of babies will be between 9.5 million and 10.5 million this year. Since there have been an average of about 10 million deaths annually in recent years, “if the number of newborns is near the lower limit of the prediction, it means that the given population must record negative growth.” “, he wrote.

Falling birth rates are a problem many countries face, but in China the drop has been especially severe due to the country’s decades-long one-child policy.

To prevent the birth rate from falling, in 2015 the Chinese government announced it would allow couples to have two children. But after a brief period of rapid growth in 2016, the country’s birth rate fell year-on-year, prompting authorities to loosen the policy further this year for three children – although some experts believe the three-child policy will be a game changer.

And compared with other industrialized countries with similar birth rates, China – despite its economic growth – still lags far behind in terms of GDP per capita and has relatively weak social welfare system.

China’s birth rate stood at just 1.3 last year – one of the lowest in the world and even lower than 1.34 in Japan. But China’s GDP per capita is only a quarter of Japan’s. Some other countries with lower birth rates include Singapore (1.1) and Korea (0.84).

“The bad news for China, of course, is that this is not the end and that China will continue to be drawn towards the bottom end of the spectrum – so it will be like Singapore and South Korea very soon,” said Liang. speak.

“If you look at the big cities in China, like Shanghai and Beijing, their birth rates are already the lowest in the world – at around 0.7.”

The rapidly aging population and shrinking labor force could severely affect China’s economic and social stability.

“It’s going to hurt China’s finances, because you need to support more old people with fewer young people,” Liang said.

“(But) the biggest worry is that China will lose its advantage of scale, being the biggest market for almost everything. The country has very efficient supply chains because of its size. And its capacity to innovate. may not be as vibrant when you’re only half of today’s youth.”

Chinese millennials are not married and the government is worried

An aging society also puts enormous pressure on the country’s young generation, which already increasingly delaying marriage – or even avoid it altogether. Last year, the number of marriage registrations fell for the seventh consecutive year to 8.1 million, down 40% from their peak in 2013, according to the yearbook of the National Bureau of Statistics.

For decades, local governments have forced millions of women to abortion considered illegal by the state under the one-child policy. Now, they are creating a rampant propaganda slogans and policies to encourage couples to have more children. Popular incentives include cash handouts, estate benefits and extended maternity leave.

This year, more than 20 provincial or regional governments have amend their family planning law, including an extension of maternity leave for women. For example, the eastern province of Zhejiang provides 188 days maternity leave for the third child; and in northern Shaanxi province, female workers can enjoy 350 days total State media reported on paid leave for the birth of a third child.

But policies have Can’t convince women, who worry they will be further disadvantaged as companies seek to avoid additional financial burdens.

“Women are more worried about their careers if they take longer maternity leave – and if the maternity leave is paid by the company,” says Liang.

At the heart of the problem is the high cost of raising children, especially among the country’s growing middle class. Parents want their children to be successful, and are willing to invest as much time and money as possible.

While some cities offer cash incentives, Liang said relying on local governments alone is not enough. Instead, the central government should set aside a certain percentage of the country’s GDP to provide financial assistance to families, in the form of cash payments, tax incentives or social security benefits. is different.

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Another much-needed policy change, Liang said, is to strengthen daycare centers for young children. Currently, only 5% of Chinese children under 3 years old use daycare, and only 20% of it is run by the government, according to Xinhua.

But there are also deeper structural problems that need to be addressed. China’s high property prices and soaring education costs, especially in major cities, are frequently cited in surveys as the top factors preventing couples from having more children. .

Both sectors are in the spotlight this year, with the debt crisis surrounding real estate giant Evergrande and the Chinese government’s sweeping crackdown on the private tutoring industry.

Although the government has never directly acknowledged it, the crackdown on after-school classes – which places great pressure on children and a growing financial burden on parents – is widely recognized. seen as part of a broader effort to increase the country’s birth rate. .

Liang said the measure only “deals with the symptoms” and will be difficult to enforce in the long run, as people can always find a way to hire a private tutor.

“I think the long-term solution would probably be to change the university admissions regime,” he said, referring to the notoriously difficult and competitive exam that millions of Chinese students take each year to get into universities. university, with the hope of achieving good results. Future.

Such interventions could be the first of many. After years of waiting, the government is now acutely aware of the seriousness of the problem – and has shown a lot of determination to fix it.

In fact, the most optimistic scenario for China is to have fertility levels similar to Europe, around 1.6 or 1.7, Liang said. “But that’s very difficult. You’re talking about spending 5% of GDP (to encourage having children), or solving the housing problem and the education problem,” he said. “In fact, maintaining only 1.3 is not easy.”

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