Kip Hansen’s guest essay – July 17, 2022
Just the other day I wrote about how New York Times failure mention that poll they reported on having found that the general public was some confidence that the media have been honest or fair in their journalism.
The reality is that not only does the mainstream media fail to honestly or fairly report the results of opinion polls, but the polls themselves are often biased. Polls can be biased by their introduction – the opening – to their question, by wording the question correctly, the choice of answer given to the respondents, and select the group of respondents (who are being polled).
We see a lot of poll results related to climate, climate change and climate change policy – but can we trust those polls to reflect real opinions and views? public affairs? Here I view a poll on another topic as an object lesson.
Since writing about confidence in the mainstream media, I came across a great example in a blog post. NY Times / Siena College opinion poll. This poll was taken before recently Decision of the Supreme Court on NYSRPA v. Bruen regarding the New York State law regarding the licensing of people to carry a concealed handgun.
The poll in question was conducted on June 7-9, 2022 and the results are reported in a press release on June 16, 1022. On this particular issue, Siena reports:
Likewise, more than three-quarters of voters want the Supreme Court to uphold New York’s decades-old law requiring a concealed handgun license, including 72% of gun owners and 79% of political parties. Republicans (even more than 77% independents), “Greenberg said.”
Well, fair enough so far…. but what exactly did the Siena Poll ask and what answer choices were offered?
Dig deep details of the poll (see page 6) we found sample and exact question about this:
“Q31. New York State has had laws for decades allowing only adults over the age of 21 to carry a concealed handgun. Would you like to see the Supreme Court uphold that law and let New York continue to require a license for a concealed handgun,
OR
Would you like to see the law overturned, eliminating the need for a permit to carry a concealed handgun? “
Total Dem Rep Ind / Other
Law of maintenance 79% 82% 79% 77%
The law is overturned 15% 13% 16% 18%
Don’t know / No opinion 6% 4% 5% 5%
The first sentence is “pattern”- like that of a magician before and when he (or she) performs a magic trick on stage. I call it pattern because it functions similarly to the magician’s stereotype – setting the scene, distracting the audience, in this case the polled, and directing the audience to a state of mind or certain perspective on what happens next.
That pattern – the setup sentence or the question opening – is absolutely correct. No tricks there. State of NY, along with 43 of the 50 states of the United StatesThere is a law that requires people to have a permit to carry a concealed handgun.
The trick lies in the full question: “Would you like to see the Supreme Court follow that law and let New York continue to require a license for a concealed handgun… OR would you like to see the law overturned, eliminating the need for a permit to carry a concealed handgun? “
In June, Newspapers and TV news in NY State covered the Supreme Court case on NY’s gun laws in the months leading up to this poll, especially in June 2022 due to recent mass shooting at an elementary school in Texas.
Here is the rubbing:
The Supreme Court case in question, NYSRPA v. Bruenit is not a matter of whether New York could have a law requiring a license for a concealed handgun, and overturning the existing law would not eliminate the need for a license to do so. In other words, the question almost completely misrepresents the Supreme Court case.
The case has now been decided and the Supreme Court has overturned NY State law on concealed handgun permits. But it’s not that licenses are required, just how they are administered.
The The wiki has a pretty good summary:
NYSRPA v. Bruen
“The case concerning the constitutionality of 1911” The Sullivan ActNew York State law requires applicants for an unrestricted license to carry a concealed handgun in order to demonstrate a “good cause” or special need distinguishable from the public on the application. their registration. “
“Owning a handgun became a crime without a license, and the issuance of carry-on permits began at the discretion of local law enforcement. The law states that in order to obtain a license, an applicant must “show a special need for self-protection that is different from that of the general public or of those operating in the same profession.”
The Supreme Court, in its ruling on the matter, found:
“In a 6–3 decision, a majority ruled that New York’s law was unconstitutional and effectively ruled that possession of a pistol in public is a constitutional right under the Second Amendment. . State licensing of firearms is not declared a violation of that right as long as the states remain within much more common range.”Board of DirectorsSystem”, can only condition the license when objective criteria are met, such as pass background check rather than a “releaseable” system, possibly based on an “arbitrary” assessment of local government needs. ” [ Wiki ]
The Court’s decision contained in curriculum (pdf). The short format decision is:
“Hold: New York’s legitimate requirement violates the Fourteenth Amendment by preventing law-abiding citizens with a need for ordinary self-defense from exercising their Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms public for self-defense. “
and
“The constitutional right to bear arms in public in self-defence is not a ‘second-class right, subject to an entirely different body of rules from the guarantees of the other Bill of Rights. McDonald’s, 561 US, at 780 (majority opinion). The exercise of other constitutional rights does not require individuals to demonstrate to government officials certain special needs. The Second Amendment right to carry a weapon in public for self-defense is no different. New York’s legitimate request violates the Fourteenth Amendment by preventing law-abiding citizens with ordinary self-defense needs from exercising their right to keep and bear arms in public. “
The Supreme Court ruled in NYSRPA v. Bruen does not affect the ability of the various states to require appropriate background checks and other reasonable restrictions on the issuance of trailing permits and is in no way “removed”.[es] A permit is required to carry concealed handguns”.
With the US midterm elections coming up in November, we should see a flurry of polls aimed at influencing US voters on candidates and issues over the next four or five months. Readers beware!
GENERAL USE:
1. The wording of the Siena College poll was created by someone extremely ignorant of the case (it appears to have been a hot topic in the State of NY for years) and Siena College located in Loudonville, suburb of Albany, NY, State Capital) or someone intentionally biased the question and answer for use as a political tool in the weeks immediately preceding the decision. expected by the Court.
2. No numbers are returned or reported on, any opinion poll will be accepted as fact (a poll could almost stop right there…) for until you dig in for yourself and find the full details of the poll: the opening section, the exact questions, the allowed answers, and the details on selecting respondents. Lying with POLL is much easier than lying with statistics.
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Author’s comment:
I hope that comments can be limited to a discussion of the current issue: polls are biased, polls are used for political or propaganda purposes and exactly how way of doing this.
All of this is based on concepts laid out in an essay published here at WUWT seven years ago: “What are they really counting?“. Numbers are just numbers – all the important facts about those numbers are in their details exactly what was counted and how it was counted.
I have a personal opinion on matters related to NYSRPA v. Bruen and, in general, the subject of gun control in the United States – BUT – I will not discuss them in the comments.
Interested, today’s news has a story in which an armed bystanderA concealed driver’s license holder shot dead a man in an Indiana shopping mall, cut short a mass shooting, saved an unspecified number of lives.
Remember to ask:
What? exactly are they? really count?
Is what they count really a measure of what is being reported?
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