President Emmanuel Macron of France arrived in Beijing on Wednesday, determined to create a distinct role for Europe to avoid US confrontation with an assertive China, and believes there is a place for China in the world. ending the war in Ukraine.
Beaten at home by protests over France’s decision to raise the retirement ageRejected in repeated attempts to persuade Russian President Vladimir V. Putin to stop pursuing a long war, Mr. Macron considered China “the only country in the world capable of changing the calculus” of Moscow” to Ukraine, according to a diplomat.
“Only China can have a game-changing effect,” said the official, who requested anonymity in line with French diplomatic practice. “We know there will be no Chinese condemnation of Russia, but the president has worked a lot to see how, together with China, we can be useful to the interests of the Ukrainian people.”
Exactly what Mr. Macron thinks is unclear. China has never condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It avoided using the word “war” to describe the Russian attack. It has accepted an “unlimited,” anti-Western partnership with Moscow, bolstered last month by President Xi Jinping’s visit to Russia and a joint declaration of a “new era” exiting Russia. away from what the two countries see as American domination.
But the French leader prefers to be invisible to others. He seems to detect enough Chinese concerns about Putin’s war for diplomatic dexterity.
China, as Putin acknowledged in September, expressed “questions and concerns” about the war. Unlike Mr. Putin, it is not interested in using the nuclear sword; and it did not close the door to a suggestion last month from Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, that China could “become a partner” in finding a solution.
The United States has denied any role for China in peace-building in Ukraine. It negates a vaguely Chinese 12-point plan launched in February. But Mr. Macron spoke to President Biden the day before he left for Beijing, and the two leaders evoked “their common desire to involve China in promoting an end to the war in Ukraine,” a statement of the French president said.
However, there are still obvious differences in approach to China. Holding his own independent position holds strong political appeal for Mr. Macron, for whom Europe’s growth as a global power is a frequent theme.
He has criticized the Biden administration’s hard line towards China and believes any decoupling or “disconnection” is not good for Europe, given its huge economic interests are at stake. . The German auto industry is too dependent on the Chinese market; A possible deal with China for the sale of dozens of European Airbus planes is being discussed.
The same goes for China, at a time when relations with the United States are at their lowest point in decades, the partners being cultivated in Europe, particularly France and Germany, hold economic and political interests. significant strategy as the country pursues its post-Covid reopening.
In one Interview with The New York Times Before Mr. Macron’s visit, China’s Ambassador to the European Union Fu Cong had called for Europe to be more independent from the United States, arguing that China’s proximity to Russia was overstated. Regarding the “unlimited” friendship between the two countries, he said: “‘Unlimited’ is nothing but rhetoric.”
Mr. Xi will hold meetings of more than six hours with Mr. Macron during his three-day visit – special treatment equivalent to a statement of serious diplomatic intent – including a joint visit to the city. Guangzhou south, where the Chinese leader has strong family connections.
Last month, Mr. Xi accused the United States of leading Western countries in a campaign of “comprehensive containment, encirclement and suppression” against China. Clearly, he sees France as an important interlocutor as the Biden administration imposes strict export controls aimed at cutting off China’s access to critical technologies.
Through access to the European economy of a style that the United States is not willing to offer, Mr. Macron may have some leverage in persuading China to take on a more constructive diplomatic role in Ukraine. China’s recent performance in brokering an unlikely deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran The restoration of diplomatic relations is a clear sign of the new reach and ambitions of the country.
“Our goal is not to cut ties with China,” the French official said. “On the contrary, our goal is to strengthen those relationships on a better foundation.”
For the Chinese Communist Party, strong growth is an indispensable guarantee of its power. But the growth rate slowed to 3% last year, its lowest level in years. Europe can contribute more to the economic recovery than Russia, because of all the talk of “no limits”.
Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, who accompanied Mr. Macron in a show of European power, said in a speech last week that “separation from China is not possible – as well as for the sake of Europe -. Our relationship is not black or white – and neither can our reactions. This is why we need to focus on reducing risk — not decoupling.”
However, framing China’s rise in more direct and ominous terms than Macron’s, she said that “China has now turned to the era of ‘reform and opening-up’ and is transitioning to a new era of security and control.”
Ms. Von said that China “wants to become the most powerful country in the world” by the middle of the 20th century and intends to “systematically change the international order with China at the center”, Europe must diversify away from dependence on China for strategic materials. der Leyen, who represents the 27-member European Union.
“We rely on a single supplier – China – for 98% of our rare earth supply, 93% of magnesium and 97% of lithium,” she said, adding: “Batteries power the vehicle. Our electricity is forecast to increase demand for lithium 17 times by 2050.”
The French official said von der Leyen’s more public stance on China’s assertiveness under Xi does not reflect a divergent assessment, but rather Macron’s determination to look ahead. to “find a way to build, once we know that.”
With both Putin and Xi, the French leader’s tendency is to acknowledge the threat they pose to Western values and democracy on the one hand, and to insist on the other that only dialogue can. favorable change.
That dialogue with Putin, strained in the early months of the war, has broken down in recent months. It does not yield clear results.
“We are allies of the Americans. We don’t have an equal distance between China and the United States,” the French official said. “But we don’t have the same views on China, because we don’t have the same interests.”
From the French point of view, the possibility of China causing great harm — whether by arming Russia or invading Taiwan — is too real for any approach other than “recommitting on the basis of frank dialogue”.
This is not the China language of the Biden administration. But if Mr. Macron and Europe as a whole welcome all significant US support for the war in Ukraine, they do not want the cost of revived transatlanticism to be the loss of Europe to China.
