If Donald Trump wins a second term, he has promised to govern like no modern president has, imposing high tariffs, rounding up immigrants, unleashing rioters on the 6th. January and may withdraw from NATO. Trump has signaled that he will do all of this by appointing loyalists, rather than the more moderate military leaders and corporate executives from his first term.
Even so, Many CEOs don’t care, as my colleague Jonathan Mahler described them in a recent article. They do not believe Trump will do what he promised, contrary to many scholars who have studied politicians like Trump and believe he will.
To understand the situation, I enlisted the help of Jonathan and three Times reporters who reported on Trump’s plans for a second term: Maggie Haberman, Charlie Savage and Jonathan Swan. Our conversation follows.
‘They can work with him’
David Leonhardt: Do CEOs just assume Trump won’t deliver on his agenda — or do they quietly support it?
Jonathan Mahler: Most CEOs are not excited about Trump’s second term. They had a tough time the first time around – even though they got the tax cuts and deregulation they wanted – and they were pretty sure he would bring instability, which is generally is not good for business.
Having said that, many people are also unhappy with President Biden, who has been much more proactive in regulating business. And I don’t get the impression that they have been receptive to the messages Trump and his allies have been sending about what a second term would look like.
It can be difficult for CEOs to imagine that next time they might have less influence. But to me, that attitude seems to ignore both history and political currents around the world, including within America’s own conservative movement.
Charlie Savage: The premise here is that CEOs will be motivated more by the larger issues of American democracy as a matter of obvious self-interest than by their direct personal interests. I’m not sure if that premise is true.
One often hears the term “populist” used as shorthand for Trumpism. But that’s not the right label if the question is which candidate’s policies are most likely to allow corporations and the rich to accumulate more money going forward. Biden will let Trump’s 2017 income tax cuts expire for the wealthy, while Trump is promising a new round of corporate tax cuts. And Trump disparages regulators — the means by which society imposes rules on powerful business interests that can cut into their profits — as part of a “deep state” that he vowed to abolish it.
Many of the progressive aspects of Trump’s agenda are not incompatible with the rich getting richer.
(Related: In yesterday’s speech, Biden harshly criticized Trump as protector of the wealthy. “He looks at the economy from Mar-a-Lago, where he and his wealthy friends have imposed failed trickle-down policies that have failed working families for more than 40 years,” Biden speak.)
Maggie Haberman: I think some CEOs are telling themselves that there were similar warnings about Trump in 2016 and they believe he’s so transactional that they can work with him. The problem with that view is that Trump’s interest in CEOs is based entirely on need. Yes, he enjoys the approval of the wealthy. But if he wins, he can no longer legally run for president, which will not be restricted for him.
I think the basic point that these executives are unhappy with economic policy under Biden is very important. I’ve heard countless complaints about climate initiatives, student debt relief, and the federal deficit (though there were no complaints from the CEOs themselves when Trump increased the deficit ).
Most importantly, these executives tend to roll their eyes at news coverage of Trump’s radical plans and tell themselves they can find a way to navigate it.
‘Avert their gaze’
Jonathan Swan: Trump will have fewer incentives in 2025 than in 2017 to appease American businesses. The sponsor class largely abandoned him after January 6, even as some are slowly returning. US banks refuse to do business with the Trump Organization
And under Trump, the Republican base has changed dramatically. They are more blue-collar, more likely to hate corporate leaders and Davos “thought leaders.” The relationship between American companies and Republican congressmen also became cold. I’ve heard things like this from some pro-Trump Republicans about corporate America: “We’ve been protecting you for years. And then you turn around and side with the Democrats on every major cultural issue — the environment, immigration, diversity, inclusion and voting rights.
Most Republicans remain attuned to corporate interests, but some new Trump-aligned members of Congress, like Marjorie Taylor Greene, are less reliant on corporate money because they raise so much online money from grassroots donors.
David Leonhardt: I still believe that many CEOs actually support much of Trump’s agenda – but also oppose other parts. Executives seem to be betting that they can get the parts they like without the parts they don’t.
Maggie Haberman: No matter how much they actually support or disapprove of specific sections, more people feel more antipathy toward Biden than attraction to Trump. And they are avoiding looking at the parts they don’t like.
SPORTS
NBA: Sacramento Kings beat the Golden State Warriors, 118-94, in the Play-In game. Warriors were eliminated from the playoffs.
Los Angeles Lakers: The Kings will play the Pelicans for the Western Conference’s final playoff spot behind the Lakers won in New Orleans to advance to the full playoffs.
WNBA: Monday’s draft average 2.4 million viewers; The previous record was 601,000 in 2004.
Fighting politics: Dana White, the chief executive officer of the UFC, has risen to the top Political influence in the Trump era.
ART AND IDEAS
Doctors in America have begun to explore an idea first popularized in Britain: “social regulations.” That means trying to address issues like isolation and stress by suggesting patients explore non-clinical activities; Think glassblowing, nature walks, or dancing.
However, some experts are skeptical about how far this approach will go in a country without socialized medicine: “I think all the biases are built into the system. The system favors more acute medical care and intensive care,” a health policy professor told The Times.
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