When the calendar turns to February this week, we can officially use the word “bubble”.
River! No regulations. However, at the beginning of this season, the list of teams that were on the cutting line was long and varied across the country.
Last week we reviewed at the full bubble list.
[Michigan, Creighton, USC among teams on NCAA Tournament bubble]
But last week provided some results to expand the list.
Here are five new teams that must be considered as future watchable teams.
Charleston College (February 21): Cougars just had a 20-game winning streak broken by Hofstra. It was Charleston’s second loss of the season and his first in the CAA. The only other failure is North Carolina.
The assumption a week ago was that Charleston would win the CAA. But that is no longer obvious to Hofstra and towson just a back game. However, if Charleston won the regular-season league title – and the Cougars should do so at least once – but then lost to Hofstra or Towson in the league title match, it would be extremely difficult to disqualify. They came out with only three defeats total.
A four-game losing Charleston wouldn’t be a hit to the field. That means one more loss of CAA on record. The match against Towson on February 23 is at home, and if Charleston loses that game, it will be two home defeats to the closest opponents. That wouldn’t be a good look for the committee.
Saint Louis (15-6): The case of Billikens begins with victory Providence in a neutral court (at Mohegan Sun in Uncasville, Connecticut) in November and over Memphis at home. Both arrive in November, but they count equally.
Saint Louis played on a strong non-conference schedule, losing at golden brown and to maryland in the same event at Mohegan Sun. a loss for Bang Boise will also count towards the “loss” page. SLU is 7-1 in A-10 after winning at davidson and is 15-6 overall.
If SLU can win A-10 and then lose the conference tournament to one of the other contenders like VCU, then the SLU will join the conversation to bid. The problem for Billikens is the remaining schedule. It won’t be easy, but the opportunity is still there with the road game at Dayton and home and away competitions with VCU. Beat Fordham being in the Bronx wouldn’t be a walk either. But if the SLU can win the league championship with one game, then, at the very least, the argument would be strong for Billikens to be included in the field. They could be one of the last teams if that’s the case.
VCU (16-6): The case of the Rams is similar to that of Saint Louis. The A-10 looks like a one-bid tournament in the figures, but the Billikens and Rams both have the goods to compete in the NCAA Tournament if the opportunity arises. VCU had what is now a quality win Pitt in Brooklyn in November, and the losses to ASUS in Brooklyn and at Temple it doesn’t look bad now that both of those teams combine to bid.
Playing a powerful vehicle also helps. The Rams defeated Vanderbilt from the SEC, and lost at Memphis painless. What hurts is the loss to Jacksonvilleas well as losses at Duquesne and stay at home to Saint Bonaventure last weekend. VCU can’t afford to slip again. And that means making a difference by winning at Davidson and Saint Louis this week, then going home and beating Dayton. If the Rams win those three, then the profile changes dramatically.
Florida (September 12): The Gators have been inconsistent this season, but they’ve had their moments to put them on the roster. win Missouriand the SEC line wins at LSU and Mississippi State should give Gators some consideration. Lose 14 at Kansas State in the SEC-Big 12 Challenge didn’t help.
Tough schedule and obvious early season losses Florida Atlantic Ocean, Xavier and UConn are proving to be games that will help but not hurt their scheduling power. But there have been missed opportunities before West Virginia and Oklahoma State as well as being carried away Texas A&M.
So how can Florida change the story in its favor? Well, the next three games will be against Tennessee at home Wednesday, at Kentucky on Saturday, and at Alabama on Feb. 8. If the Gators take a 2-1 lead this time around, especially if they beat the Vols, then they’ll be in an advantageous position. But it also means they can’t take any more losses against teams below their current neighborhoods in the SEC rankings.
Oregon (September 13): The Ducks are also terribly inconsistent and lose first Utah Valley, UC Irvine and Stanford sting. There are so many misses like Houston at home, UConn and the state of Michigan in Portland and the State of Arizona at home. Road loss at UCLA and Colorado part of the regular Pac-12 season.
So for the Ducks to be valued here, they have to do something about their upcoming journey arizona and the State of Arizona. Oregon won against Arizona and wiping out the Wildcats will be a standout flag. Ducks then come home to play USC and UCLA. That means Oregon’s post-season fate will be known – outside of the Pac-12 tournament title – over the next two weeks.
Andy Katz is a longtime college basketball writer, analyst, and host. He can be seen on the Big Ten Network, as well as March Madness and NCAA.com, and he hosts the podcast “March Madness 365.” Katz has worked at ESPN for nearly two decades and before that nine years at newspapers.
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